Chapter 486: "Global Warming" Drama (Second Update)
Qi Zheng's memory tells him that there are almost two years left for such a good market, because the climate next year is also not optimistic.
The analysis of Jiagu's strategy department is also inclined to the same view, and this wave of global agricultural product price increases is likely to last for one to two years.
In this way, the choice of the Jiagu system is very simple - of course, it is necessary to take advantage of the bull market cycle to grab as many benefits as possible to cope with the cruel competition after the "tide recedes".
Interestingly, at home, Jiagu is a pioneer in suppressing agricultural speculation, but abroad, Jiagu is an active participant in agricultural speculation.
After the Australian government approved the acquisition of Almod Grains by Jiagu International, Jiagu has more say in Australian barley, especially malting barley.
So, the same routine was replicated on barley.
With the funding of Jiagu International, "authoritative" experts published the results of a study in the authoritative journal Nature:
- "You probably wouldn't have imagined that the commonplace beer could turn into a "luxury" in the near future.
As one of the most important food crops, there is no doubt that extreme weather caused by global warming has a negative impact on barley yields.
If agricultural production is affected, countries will certainly guarantee food production first, rather than "luxury consumer goods".
The researchers found that barley supply in different regions would be trade-off between different uses based on the principle of maximizing profits, given a certain yield.
In short, when barley production is in contraction, barley first goes to livestock and food, and only then does the extra barley be used for beer brewing on the basis of ensuring food supply.
Therefore, it is estimated that, in the absence of an improvement in the current warming trend, in extreme cases, it will lead to a 16% reduction in global beer production and a possible doubling of beer prices.
......”
In short, the whole article is to illustrate one point - the supply of malting barley is going to fall, and it's time to increase the price!
This argument seems convincing against the backdrop of extreme weather in many parts of the world this year, such as the decline in barley production due to drought in Europe.
A number of "authorities" have also issued predictions that the malting barley shortage will be a major trend sweeping the world......
Well, Qi Zheng just wants to say that he has won the hearts of the people since ancient times.
The drama of "global warming" is really tried and tested.
Just as it should be listed as the most successful scam in human history - the "theory of natural resource depletion", "XX resources will be depleted within XX years due to human over-extraction, and human society will face collapse...... in fact, it is all due to profit.
Among them, "global warming" is always declared to be the catastrophe of human destruction.
Well, the most famous meme is the rumor that the polar bear is about to disappear - all kinds of "domestic" experts and "wild" experts have predicted the end date of the demise of this behemoth.
But the truth is that polar bear populations have "stabilized to rise" over the past two decades, and Canada, near the Arctic Circle, is even considering raising its hunting quota because of the abundance of bears, which affects the safety of Inuit communities.
But who cares about the truth?
"Bear extinction" will always attract more attention than "Bear is fine" - the experts who are "driven" by Jiagu International, out of the same psychology and interests, are even smoother than Qi Zheng imagined.
"Tut-tut, people's hearts are not ancient!" Qi Zheng shook his head and said.
Zhong Huazhi looked at the initiator with a black line on his face.
However, he still doesn't understand this: "According to the materials used in the beer industry, isn't it easy for us to push up the price of malting barley and pull down the sales of malting barley?"
Qi Zheng smiled: "Old Zhong, you must know that the times are different......
Zhong Huazhi's statement is based on the current situation of the production of industrial light beer, which is the beer that people often drink at night. They often cost a few dollars a bottle, but the taste, to put it mildly, is refreshing, and the more you drink, the more tasteless it becomes.
This is because the most important feature of this beer is that starch accessories such as rice and corn are added to the raw materials to reduce the ratio of malt and hops.
Originally, it was nothing to add some rice, but the proportion of rice used is increasing year by year - taking domestic green beer as an example, malt accounted for 12.6% of the production cost in 02, and the proportion of rice was 2.9%. By this year, rice accounted for 8.1 percent of production costs. In other words, rice, which used to be used as an adjunct, has now become the main ingredient.
What's even worse is that "there is not enough malt, rice is enough", this matter is not a secret in the beer industry all over the world.
Later, to what extent does it develop - maltose is extracted from rice or other grains, and then a little bit of barley malt is added, or wheat bran, which has a little wheat aroma. The so-called wheat flavor is actually with some wheat bran added to it.
- You're not drinking beer, you're drinking beer.
In the final analysis, reducing the malt concentration is to keep costs down and make higher profits. This is Zhong Huazhi's question, because of the cost of reducing the amount of malting barley, if the price is raised, doesn't it make the brewers "cut corners" more naturally?
"There is no contrast, there is no harm. If it weren't for the birth of Qingyuan beer, people would probably still be drinking industrial light beer. Qi Zheng explained, "Now, after drinking enough, people feel that industrial light beer is even more difficult to eat." ”
The reason why Qingyuan Beer can compete with AB InBev in the high-end domestic beer market or even force it is that Qingyuan Beer does not have "not enough malt, rice to make up".
Qingyuan beer, which insists on using barley malt, water, hops and yeast as the main raw materials, has a richer aroma, a more mellow flavor and taste, and even the foam floating on the body is much denser and solid—many people have only drunk "live" beer for the first time.
With Qingyuan Beer topping the Chinese beer industry and going abroad to kill all sides, domestic brewers have realized that no matter how "light" the taste of beer is, there is no need to play!
As a result, the demand for barley malt for domestic beer began to rise steadily. Of course, this is also based on the fact that domestic malting barley is basically self-sufficient.
"As in China, as Qingyuan Beer expands its territory in Southeast Asia, South Korea, and even in the broader overseas market, this will force the global beer industry to improve its product structure, and the global demand for malting barley will continue to ......grow," Zhong Huazhi apparently understood.
Therefore, pushing up the price of international malting barley is good for the entire Jiagu system – the supply side of malting barley will definitely benefit from it, while the cost of other brewers will increase as a result, and Qingyuan beer will be more competitive......
Of course, as with sugar, there is definitely a cycle of price increases. At the end of the day, when prices are high, so will supply – "global warming" has been shouted for so many years, and there has been no significant reduction in global food production. Historically, periods of warming have been periods of human prosperity.
"We only need these few years for the global layout of Qingyuan Beer to be stable. Qi Zheng squinted his eyes and said, "What's more, starting with barley to lay out global grain trade channels, it won't be too eye-catching......
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