Everyone is beginning to realize that the non-plague will reshape the domestic pig production pattern.

But as with all change, the process of reinvention is always painful and struggling. It's not just the industry itself that needs to pay a price.

There is a saying: "Pigs can fly on the tuyere." ”

But this time, the "second senior brother" himself finally became an outlet.

At present, 15 provinces in China have found African swine fever cases, covering the northeast, central and eastern regions, South China, and southwest China, and the number of pigs has been culled more than 300,000 heads, and cross-provincial embargoes and other methods have been adopted for prevention and control, but the epidemic is still menacing, and it is still difficult to assert that the epidemic has been controlled.

The stage of oversupply of pork caused by the panic selling of pigs has passed, and the decline in the number of pigs has been really reflected in the price, and the price of pork has bottomed out sharply.

Within a month, the executive meeting of the State Council twice in a row took how to stabilize pork prices as an important topic. As a directly relevant ministry, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is even more heartbroken.

In the internal meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture, the "buzzing" is like a hundred and ten bees chirping, and Minister Han keeps drinking tea while listening - the continuous meeting makes people feel physically and mentally exhausted even if they are full of energy.

“...... This month, the 400 counties we monitor have a 5.3% year-on-year decline in the sow herd, exceeding the 5% warning line for the first time, and the decline is expected to expand month by month. According to the law of pig production, it takes about 10 months from the sow pregnancy, the birth of piglets, to the slaughter of fattening pigs, that is to say, now the basic production capacity of pigs is declining, and in the next year or so, the problem of reducing the supply of pigs is becoming more and more serious, and the price continues to rise. ”

The atmosphere in the conference room was even more solemn.

Macroscopically, since 2008, the correlation coefficient between pork prices and the consumer consumption index (CPI) has reached 0.82, much higher than other commodities in the CPI basket. The rise in pig prices will push up the food CPI, and at the same time drive up the prices of substitute beef and mutton, eggs, chicken, etc., driving the CPI - just over half of this year, pork alone has pulled up the CPI by 0.7 percentage points.

In layman's terms, the CPI has been raised, and the people's happiness has been lowered accordingly.

In addition, for the current task of the Ministry of Agriculture to strictly prevent non-plague, the implementation of pork "supply and price stability" has another significance.

Not all provinces have seen pork prices skyrocket. Judging from the data, pork prices have risen the fastest in the southeastern coastal provinces – which is easy to understand, and the tightening of pig supply in these large consuming provinces is more prominent under the inter-provincial embargo.

This economic temptation is too great, from the pig production province to the consumption of pigs, a pound may be a few dollars of price difference, a car of pigs, at least can net tens of thousands of yuan. Under the temptation of huge profit margins, there is no shortage of people who take risks.

Naturally, the Ministry of Agriculture does not want to see that the ban on transportation has failed to stop African swine fever, but has fattened illegal pig dealers.

The solution to these problems is to increase the supply of pork in the market.

At first glance, this is an easy solution, but how to increase the supply of pork is the problem.

"Increasing pork imports could be considered to fill part of the gap......"

As soon as this suggestion was put forward, some people shook their heads: "The gap is too big, and it is unrealistic to increase the import of pork to fill it." ”

Yes, more than 300,000 pigs have been culled so far, but this may be just the tip of the iceberg.

The most optimistic forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture is that the gap between supply and demand of pork and pig offal this year is as high as 6 million tons, and it will even further expand to 10 million tons next year.

That's a sky-high number, but it's not bizarre for China's pork superpower.

The total export of pork in the world is only more than 8 million tons, and in terms of volume, the whole world exports pork to China, and there is no way to make up for the shortfall.

Minister Han also nodded silently, the problem of Chinese eating meat can only be solved by the Chinese themselves.

"Encouraging pig farming is not ideal in the current situation. One of the directors said honestly: "Pork prices have skyrocketed, but retail investors are not having a good time, and they have not entered a period of windfall profits as imagined." Pigs that can be slaughtered are certainly very profitable, but it is difficult to raise. Now, in addition to the cost of feed and piglets, the cost of disinfection, epidemic prevention and other expenses have been added, which does not include the cost of pig loss caused by non-plague......"

From a historical point of view, the number of pigs that have died and culled is now at an all-time high. The African swine fever epidemic is highly different from the previous epidemic, including inter-provincial embargoes and other prevention and control measures have never been used in previous pig epidemics, which has curbed the impulse of pig farmers to enter the market on a large scale when the price of pork has risen in the past.

Especially with the hot weather and the arrival of the high incidence period of the epidemic, out of risk considerations, pig farmers of all sizes are more eager to ship and are unwilling to fill the column.

"That's just one of the issues, and don't forget, there's also the requirement for environmental protection. ”

As soon as this statement came out, it was another huge point of controversy.

The "Regulations on the Prevention and Control of Pollution from Large-scale Livestock Breeding" promulgated the year before last marked the beginning of the environmental protection cycle of the livestock breeding industry. If everything goes well, the next two years should enter the peak period of environmental protection ban, and the Ministry of Agriculture will raise environmental protection efforts to an unprecedented height.

However, the plague disrupted all plans, and the Ministry of Agriculture's "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Adjustment and Optimization of Pig Breeding Layout in the Southern Water Network Area" were suspended.

Some people's opinions are very clear: "Now that meat prices are soaring, our primary goal is to promote the resumption of pig production under the premise of controlling the spread of non-plague, so as to alleviate the gap between supply and demand, and the urgency of the task of environmental protection and prohibition should be reduced......"

Someone immediately retorted: "I think it's the opposite. Intensive small-scale farming combined with non-planting and breeding does not meet the requirements of epidemic prevention and environmental protection. We should take advantage of the painful period under the impact of non-plague to accelerate the rectification, transformation and upgrading of the environmental protection ban of the pig industry......"

The heated argument made Minister Han squint.

It should be said that the battle of non-plague has entered a protracted war of fighting and reforming, which has exposed many problems and will surely have far-reaching effects on multiple levels.

Because of this, any one response is subject to more evaluation and observation, and there are multiple points of view confronted within the ministry alone.

The more this is the case, the less likely Minister Han will be to make a decision lightly. Because it is very important for decision-makers to avoid making judgments in extreme market conditions.

If you want to avoid extreme market conditions...... Minister Han rubbed the teacup, feeling a little dazed.

At this moment, the secretary quietly leaned over and reported in a low voice: "Deputy Director Hu of the National Development and Reform Commission is here." ”

"Did you say anything?"

"He said, if you want to eat meat, look for Jiagu ......"

......