Give me information about Jiagu!"

In the commodity risk management department of Guoliang Group, Fei Qihai, director of risk control, received the information.

"Jiagu Qi Dong signed the "Memorandum of Cooperation on Vegetable Seed Industry Innovation Base" in Shandong Province, and then attended the groundbreaking ceremony of Chicheng Reservoir......"

His face turned dark in an instant, and he said angrily: "Wait, what's the use of what I want from Jiagu Qi Dong's dynamics? What I want is Jiagu's actions in the early indica rice trade!"

The trader of the National Grain Risk Control Department hurriedly replied: "Oh, oh, the spot volume of early indica rice in Jiagu has an increasing trend, but the financial department of Jiagu has no action on early indica rice futures for the time being......"

"Didn't you move?" Fei Qihai muttered to himself.

"Yes!" the trader nodded affirmatively, and then asked, "But the early indica futures market has become active, and the futures price has also begun to fluctuate, are we going to sell now?"

After Fei Qihai pondered for a moment, he pressed his hand: "Don't worry, wait first, I want to see Jiagu's judgment." ”

“......”

Coincidentally, in the risk control department of Yihai Kerry, its managing director also made the same decision - wait and see what happens.

The reason is also very simple, in the field of rice, no one can ignore the existence of Jiagu, whether it is in the spot market or in the financial market!

Early indica rice futures is a grain futures variety listed on the Zhengzhou Stock Exchange in China in 09, which is of great significance for China to become one of the world's grain pricing centers and promote the gradual formation of "Chinese prices" in the grain field.

When it comes to "futures", many people may have the impression that it is associated with concepts such as "speculation" and "speculation". However, for a long time, domestic early indica rice futures varieties are more suitable for grain depots and grain enterprises to participate, rather than speculative funds.

This is because China's rice prices are more strictly controlled than corn and wheat, and the national purchase price and national reserve policy, including the protective price policy, the market policy, the subsidy policy, and the "three rural" policies, have greatly affected the price of rice, resulting in a relatively small fluctuation in the price of domestic early indica rice, which is considered to be a variety that is not suitable for "speculation".

But now, variables have emerged.

Since the beginning of this year, especially since April, the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has been seriously low, the water supply from the rivers has been insufficient, and the water level has continued to be low, resulting in some provinces suffering from drought of varying degrees. Among them, the five provinces of Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan were more seriously affected.

Rice, water shortage has a greater impact on the growth of rice than ordinary crops.

Deadly disaster weather often causes sharp changes in the price and supply and demand of the spot market, while the futures market is more sensitive to severe weather, the speculation is more crazy, and the amplification effect is more prominent.

The faint spring drought in the main early indica rice producing areas in the south, the impact of rising prices of strong wheat futures and corn futures, the positive stimulus of the state to greatly increase the minimum purchase price of rice, and the emergence of successive droughts in spring and summer...... Let early indica rice futures, a variety that has not attracted much attention from the market, become the "star" of the Zhengzhou Stock Exchange, and began to attract a lot of funds to intervene in drought speculation.

This situation undoubtedly makes the minds of all parties concerned about early indica rice futures float.

For non-speculative players, the greatest significance of futures lies in "hedging". However, "hedging" is really not as simple as the textbook explanation of "operating at the same time, buying and selling the same amount of futures spot".

For example, if you want to buy paddy in a few months, but you expect the price to rise and you may lose money due to the increased cost, you can buy a futures contract in the early indica futures market. At that time, the futures price will also rise to make a profit, offsetting the loss of the spot and ensuring a stable income.

But if the prediction is wrong, the price will fall by then, and the futures contract will undoubtedly incur a loss. Well, theoretically yes, but you have to know that the time efficiency of the spot market and the futures market is not the same.

To put it simply, the spot price fluctuates little and slowly, the futures price fluctuates large and fast, and the spot price may fall by 0.1 yuan, but the futures price falls by more than 300 yuan tons - if you operate the same amount of futures and spot at the same time, you may be bankrupt.

In particular, grain companies such as Guoliang Group and Yihai Kerry are not pure grain traders, but integrate grain procurement and processing, and the larger the purchase volume, they also need stronger sensitivity and insight into price fluctuations.

- At the very least, you have to judge the price trend of the futures.

Of course, if you can't tell the future price trend, the easiest option is to follow the trend!

Guoliang Group and Yihai Kerry are not small players who do not understand hedging, not to say that they should completely follow Jiagu, but take Jiagu's judgment as the most important reference - at least in the early indica rice futures variety, there is no problem.

After all, Jiagu is the largest spot trader of rice in China.

Due to the characteristics of their operations, most grain trading enterprises will not set up their own warehouses, but directly use leased warehouses for storage. However, the process of finding a rented warehouse and the cost of renting a warehouse will invisibly increase the procurement cost of early indica rice.

In addition to several selected rice varieties produced and sold, a large number of ordinary rice is also purchased for spot trade - taking early indica rice as an example, the country produces 30 million tons per year, the state collects and stores 15 million tons, and the remaining Jiagu accounts for one-third.

Therefore, at the beginning of the early indica rice futures listing, Jiagu was designated as the early indica rice futures delivery warehouse by the Zhengzhou Stock Exchange, and participated in the delivery and warehousing service of no less than 10,000 tons - without submitting the drizzle income of Jiagu's new storage fees and warehousing fees, Jiagu's own delivery is at least much more convenient.

In addition to large grain merchants with experience in futures trading such as Guoliang Group and Yihai Kerry, real industry insiders are also paying close attention to Jiagu's movements in early indica rice futures!

Although there are not many of them involved in early indica rice futures trading, they all regard early indica rice futures as an important window to understand the rice market - for example, rice processing enterprises, before accepting orders to process rice, may first settle accounts according to the futures price, and only sign a contract when it is cost-effective.

......

"It's moving, it's moving!" Guoliang's risk control department reacted the fastest, and as soon as Jiagu's financial department entered the market, its traders caught the movement.

"What's the situation?" Fei Qihai immediately asked.

"Jiagu Finance Department is selling the September early indica futures contract in a big way!" the trader couldn't wait.

Fei Qihai frowned: "Sell the contract, what is the current price of early indica rice futures?"

"Before Jiagu entered the market, the price of early indica rice rose to 2616 yuan/ton;

Fei Qihai's brow furrowed even tighter.

At present, the purchase price of early rice in China is generally around 2200 yuan ton, and the contract price of early indica rice futures in September is 2610 yuan ton, and the difference between the spot and futures price is a bit big!

Of course, this means that the risk is greater. From a speculative point of view, if you bet right, you will make a lot of money, but if you bet wrong, you will naturally lose a lot.

The most important thing is Jiagu's choice - selling futures contracts, which means that Jiagu's judgment on the price trend of early indica rice futures is to fall, which is completely opposite to the wind direction in the market.

At the very least, Jiagu believes that the current drought has little impact on rice production in the south, and more bluntly, Jiagu judges that the weather is expected to improve quickly.

Fei Qihai really wanted to grab the person in charge of Jiagu's financial department and ask, what does Jiagu rely on, thinking that the drought will ease?

"Boss, how do we choose?Buy up or buy down?" After Jiagu entered the market, the early indica rice futures market was already in a state of turmoil, and traders were already swallowing their saliva.

Fei Zhihai thought about it again and again, and made a decisive decision: "Like Jiagu, open a position to sell the September early indica rice futures contract!"

"Are you sure?" the trader dutifully reminded.

"Don't hesitate, do as I say!" Fei Qihai's expression did not change, and he still gave the order firmly.

In fact, the National Grain Risk Control Department has its own supporters for the rise and fall of early indica rice prices, and their respective reasons are quite sufficient.

That's the norm. Most of the judgments in the world, before there is no result, are public and reasonable, and it is precisely because of this that it is difficult to choose. Fei Qihai's previous judgment on the early indica rice futures market was also inclined to fall, and Jiagu's choice just strengthened his confidence.

At his request, traders in the National Grain Risk Control Department began to slowly buy short orders.

The impact of Jiagu's choice is enormous.

In essence, Jiagu is in a state of gambling with speculative capital that speculates on the drought.

There are certainly many players who follow Jiagu, but there are also many players who are interested in challenging Jiagu.

On the one hand, there is a real drought, and no one knows how long it will last, and on the other hand, there is no eternal winner in the "casino", maybe this is the Waterloo of Jiagu?

All kinds of players, according to their own established strategies, continue to move forward, even if no one dares to say that they see the road clearly.

No, except for one person.

Qi Zheng, who returned to the headquarters, saw the latest report of the Ministry of Finance and sat firmly in Diaoyutai.

In fact, he dared to say that the Jiagu Finance Department's reasons for judging the future decline of early indica rice futures are similar to the reasons for the same judgment of the National Grain Risk Control Department.

- For example, the impact of the current drought on rice growth is worth speculating, and some remedial measures, such as artificial rainfall, are expected to have a significant alleviating effect on the drought situation......

- For example, the overall supply of rice in China is still sufficient, the sowing and growth of early rice in other regions have not been affected, and the expectation of national policy tightening is still strong, and the risk of early indica rice futures dying is quite high......

However, Qi Zheng is different from Fei Qihai, director of risk control of national grains, in that he can really determine whether the weather can improve quickly and whether the drought can be quickly alleviated, so as to promote the implementation of relevant judgments by the Jiagu Finance Department.

He looked up at the news: "This year's No. 2 typhoon 'Sanda' formed over the ocean east of the Philippines and is currently intensifying into a super typhoon, and from the perspective of its moving path, the impact on our country is estimated to be small......

Oh, it's big or not, it depends on who has the final say!

......