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In the middle of 1907, in addition to improving relations with Japan, the achievements of East China in foreign affairs were also remarkable.
During the visit of the German mission at the beginning of the year, East China and Germany initially reached the intention of forming a partnership, and signed a number of cooperation agreements or intentions, and achieved considerable diplomatic results; at the same time, at the beginning of October, East China also sent a large visiting mission to Germany as a return visit to Germany, in this visit, the two sides will visit East China in the German mission** On the basis of the results achieved, we will further deepen and consolidate the cooperative relationship between the two sides, expand the cooperation platform between the two sides, and implement the cooperation agreement or intention reached last time, and strengthen the development of relations between the two sides in all aspects, so this visit will be the focus of East China's foreign affairs in 1908.
In September and October, the United States also sent a visit to East China, and the intention of the US Round-the-World Fleet to visit East China during its voyage, after several rounds of consultations between the two sides, it has now been determined that US Secretary of State Elihu Rutter will visit East China from March to May next year, and at the same time, East China also agrees in principle to the US Round-the-World Fleet to visit East China, but the specific visit details, procedures, The rules still need to be further negotiated between the two sides, Bi Jing This is the first time that a foreign warship has visited East China, and the country's round-the-world fleet is huge, in the old time and space, it is mainly composed of 16 battleships, so many battleships, even in the name of peace, but East China ** can not be taken lightly.
This is also an important part of Elihu Root's visit to East China, and in addition, he will also negotiate with East China to expand trade cooperation between the two sides. The economic crisis that broke out in the United States was basically over after the joint rescue of a group of financial giants led by John Pierpont Morgan, the American economy began to recover, credit began to expand again, and the stock market began a new round of rapid rise.
But although the economy is recovering, the United States needs a larger market to do it, and now the world's land has basically been carved up, even if there are some independent countries, most of the more economically developed European countries have strong tariff barriers, and the market is difficult to enter easily, while other independent countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America are either small and widowed, or economically backward, and it is difficult to provide the United States with a large market, not to mention that most of these countries are controlled by other powers, and it is difficult for the United States to intervene, Latin America is the sphere of influence of the United States, the territory is not small, and the population is also quite large, but the society of these countries is too backward, and the economy is basically based on agriculture and animal husbandry and resourcesAlthough there is a demand for industrial products in the United States, the purchasing power is insufficient, and the market in Latin America is basically saturated at this time, so there is not much room for expansion.
And now the only country that can provide the United States with a large-scale market is East China**. After the end of the Far East War, the territory of East China reached about 3.5 million square kilometers, with a population of nearly 100 million, the size and population of the country, looking at the whole world, only ranked behind Russia, the United States and Brazil, although Canada and Australia have a certain degree of independence, but at this time they still belong to the Commonwealth of Nations, and although the geographical area of these two countries is large, but the population is too scarce, so the market that can be supplied is also limited, not to mention that these two countries are still under the control of the United Kingdom, and the United States still can't get involved.
East China has enough population and geographical area, although the social economy is still relatively backward, but in the rapid development, there is a large demand for industrial products, machinery, and a large number of infrastructure projects, not only to provide a huge market for the United States, but also to provide many enterprises in the United States with a new scope of business, during the Putsmus negotiations, East China ** negotiators in the United States and Xu Rang enterprises reached a cooperation intention, but later the United States in the position of Japan, Russia, and East China ** The political relationship is cold, so the intention of cooperation between the two sides has also been temporarily shelved, and now the United States has just experienced an economic crisis, the United States urgently needs to open up new economic growth points, so in the United States, although some people strategically regard East China as a competitor, but out of economic considerations, they have to strengthen cooperation with East China, after all, the premise of the strategy is economic.
On the one hand, the United States is now the world's first economic power, on the other hand, the United States still has huge potential, so when the war in the Far East is not over, East China intends to strengthen relations with the United States, but the United States is biased towards Japan and Russia, and East China naturally has to treat the United States coldly, after all, in addition to the United States, East China can also be friendly with Germany.
And now the United States has taken the initiative to move closer to East China, although it is forced by the economic crisis, but East China will not refuse, East China of course also knows that there is a force in the United States that regards East China as a competitor of the United States, but now the United States has not really listed China as a competitor, and it is not surprising that there are many voices in a diversified country like the United States.
But to improve relations with the United States, because it is to improve economic relations, is also the need of East China, Bi Jing only relies on Germany, the country is too risky, can not put eggs in a blue, this truth everyone knows, and as a mature **, can not determine the relationship between countries by likes and dislikes. Even if it is possible that East China will meet with the United States in the future, before that, East China still needs to improve relations with the United States. Therefore, managing relations with the United States will be another key point of East China's diplomacy next year.
In contrast, the improvement of relations with Japan can only rank third in the foreign affairs of East China next year, although the improvement of relations with Japan is also beneficial to East China, first of all, the variables in Japan are too great now, although Ito Hirobumi's visit to East China shows that Japan hopes to improve relations with East China, but now public opinion in Japan is obviously against Ito Hirobumi's behavior, and although Japan is with East China Political relations are tense, and relations with Britain, France and Russia are tense, but now Japan Bi Jing is still one of the members of the [Quad Alliance], and a large part of the reason for improving relations with East China is to put pressure on Britain and withdraw tariff rights.
The second is that although East China also hopes to improve relations with Japan, but to be honest, even if the relationship between the two sides has not eased now, Japan's threat to East China is not large, although Japan is much higher than East China in the overall level of modernization, but Japan in the Far East War is greatly damaged, even if it is the support of Britain and France, but it is difficult to recover without 10 years, basically will not pose any threat to East China, not to mention that the volume of East China is far from comparable to Japan, and after 10 years, East China The overall level of modernization will inevitably rise to a new height, even if Japan recovers, but due to the huge gap in volume, it is difficult for Japan to pose a big threat to East China.
Of course, if China wants to become a world power in the future, it will inevitably subdue Japan, but that is a long-term goal, and in a short period of time, the strategic goal of East China ** is mainly in Chinese mainland, that is, outside the soil must first be inside, so next year, including in the next few years, East China's attitude towards Japan is still based on wait-and-see, if Japan intends to improve relations with East China**, and there are substantive actions, East China ** will of course respond, just like this visit to East China ** Ito ** And after returning to China, he led the Congress to pass the consensus reached by the two sides, and East China of course responded positively, preparing to organize a return visit to Japan, complete the formal signing, and negotiate with Japan to sign a trade agreement.
However, East China will not take the initiative to improve or manage relations with Japan, let alone invest a lot of resources to improve relations with Japan. At the same time, even though relations with Japan have improved somewhat, East China must also be prepared for a retrogression in relations with Japan.
The last topic is the relationship between East China and the Qing court, which is simply whether East China will launch a war to overthrow the Qing court next year.
Although the current Qing court is already a tenuous and stormy edifice, which will fall down as soon as it is pushed, it cannot be said that launching a war to overthrow the Qing court is a simple matter, and it is not difficult to overthrow the Qing court, but what is difficult is what happens after the overthrow of the Qing court, not only to quickly control the occupied areas, but also to establish a sound administrative management system, and try not to rely on the original officials of the Qing court, but this requires a large number of manpower; in addition, although the Qing court did not strike a single blow, it still needed a large amount of materials to wage war, and the post-war recovery and reconstruction required considerable manpower and material resources, although now in East China**There is a reparation for the Far Eastern War, there is no shortage of funds, but the reserves of materials are difficult to say sufficient, after all, the Far Eastern War also consumed a large amount of materials in East China, although there is a part of the surplus, but the disaster relief operation has used a lot, and the reserves of materials are not completed in a short time.
Whether to launch a war to overthrow the Qing court, in fact, depends on the reserve of personnel and materials, if the reserves are not sufficient, and the war is rash, although the Qing court can be overthrown in one fell swoop, but the consequence is that East China can not control the overall situation, resulting in the situation of the whole China, external forces take advantage of the situation, it is better to temporarily endure for some time, although the Qing court is the end, but after all, there are nearly 300 years of residual power, so as not to be strong can also stabilize the overall situation, so as not to let China chaos. And wait until the reserves of personnel and materials are sufficient, and then launch a war to overthrow the Qing court, not only overthrow the Qing court in one fell swoop, but also control the situation in East China. Minimize overall losses.
It was finally decided that all preparations would be made around October 1908 when the war would be started, but in July and August a comprehensive assessment of the overall preparations would be carried out to determine the time for the start of the war. Of course, this resolution is now only known to the Executive Yuan, and will not be released to the public for the time being.