Chapter 157: Negotiations with Japan (2)
As soon as the newly appointed Japanese consul in Qingdao, Keishiro Matsui took office, he immediately handed over a diplomatic document to the East China Government, which originally stated that the Japanese Government hoped to formally hold negotiations with the East China Government on jointly defending against Russia's expansion in Northeast China and sign a cooperation treaty.
At the beginning of 1902, the Japanese government and the East China government also negotiated on the issue of defending Russia, and reached an agreement, and also signed an agreement, but this was only a framework agreement of intent, not only the content was very incomplete, but also not binding on both sides. But this time, the Japanese government hoped to sign a formal alliance treaty with the East China government, similar to the [Anglo-Japanese Alliance Treaty], against Russia.
Although Japan used Russia as an imaginary enemy to expand its armaments after the First Sino-Japanese War, and signed the [Anglo-Japanese Alliance Treaty] with Britain in 1902 specifically against Russia, most people in Japan were unwilling to really go to war with Russia except for a few soldiers with a tendon in their heads. After all, Russia at this time was still a terrible behemoth on the surface, not comparable to the Qing court, and although Japan had been preparing for war against Russia for 7 or 8 years, it still could not make up its mind to start a war for the time being. In addition to providing a guarantee for the signing of the [Anglo-Japanese Alliance Treaty], the Japanese government also hoped to take the opportunity to exert pressure on Russia to make some concessions in the negotiations. The framework agreement with the East China government is also for this purpose.
As a matter of fact, Japan's asking price for Russia is not very high, but it only hopes to protect its unique interests on the Korean Peninsula, and even recognizes that Northeast China is Russia's sphere of influence, that is, the exchange theory between Korea and Manchuria. Although Japan has been salivating over the northeastern part of China, it has not yet had the courage to eat from Russia's mouth. However, the Korean Peninsula must be preserved, because the Korean Peninsula is not only a springboard for Japan to move toward the mainland, but also a sharp sword directly to the bottom of Japan's belly, and at the same time it is the result of the victory of the First Sino-Japanese War. This is also the bottom line of the Japanese government.
It's a pity that Russia doesn't take this bottom line in mind at all, although the [Anglo-Japanese Alliance Treaty] was just signed, it did make Russia nervous for a while, but after all, Russia is an old driver among the great powers, and soon discovered the [Anglo-Japanese Alliance Treaty] Article 2: In the event of war between one of the Contracting Powers and other States, the other Party shall maintain strict neutrality and endeavour to prevent the other States from becoming at war with its allies;
This also means that as long as a war breaks out between Japan and Russia, Britain will not participate in the war, and Russia will not take it seriously against Japan alone. Seeing this, in 1902 Russia transferred troops to strengthen its military forces in the Far East, and in terms of navy: there are now seven battleships and one medium armored cruiser moored in Port Arthur, and three large armored cruisers are moored in Vladivostok, and the overall strength is similar to that of the "66th Fleet" In terms of the army, 300,000 Russian troops have been gathered in the Far East, so Russia really did not take the bottom line of the book seriously, and in the negotiations, Russia not only demanded that Japan recognize Russia's power interests in Northeast China, but also demanded that the Korean Peninsula be shared with Japan, and neither of them wanted to give up. At the same time, it is also intensifying the rearmament of the Far East and the construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway.
The two sides have been talking for a whole year, but there is still no progress. Under such circumstances, on the one hand, Japan has not given up its last efforts to resolve the dispute between the two countries through negotiations, but on the other hand, it has no choice but to seriously consider using war to solve the problem. If war is inevitable, then all the power of the whole country should be used to fight it.
In fact, Japan has been preparing for war in an orderly manner, and it has almost been prepared purely in military terms, but there is still a big gap in the war reserves, because in the later stage of the First Sino-Japanese War, Japan already had some national strength beyond its reach, so there is a view in later generations that the Qing court in the later stage of the First Sino-Japanese War was able to adopt delaying tactics and exchange space for time, and Japan itself would collapse due to its lack of national strength, which is also a certain reason. In the seven years since the First Sino-Japanese War, Japan has been using Russia as an imaginary enemy to expand its armaments, and has exhausted the compensation dividends of the First Sino-Japanese War, and its annual military expenditure has reached more than 30 percent of the state budget, so the treasury has long been empty.
In addition, according to the information of the Benben, the Trans-Siberian Railway was to be completed in 1905, when the transportation of personnel and goods from the European part of Russia to the Far East could be reached within two weeks. Therefore, if Japan were to wage war against Russia, it would have to start in 1904, leaving Japan with only one year.
Japan has already begun to prepare to issue bonds in Britain and the United States to solve the problem of funds, and both Britain and the United States have decided to help Japan, so Japan still has to solve the military problem. However, against such a behemoth as Russia alone, there is no bottom in the hearts of the emperor and the common people in Japan.
Of course, the Japanese Government knows that there is not much hope for a military alliance between Britain and Japan, and that Britain can only provide support to Japan in terms of military technology and funds, and that its military help to Japan can only contain France at most, but it will never personally join forces with Japan to fight against Russia, so it can only rely on Japan itself. In the old time and space, Japan could only bite the bullet on its own, but in this time and space, the Japanese government found that it was still able to find an ally that could fight against Russia side by side with itself, that is, the East China government.
As a matter of fact, the Japanese government's judgment is not just based on subjective assumptions, but is also based on subjective and objective situations. In terms of subjective conditions, overseas Chinese regard themselves as descendants of China, and hold high the banner of nationalism, so they naturally cannot sit idly by and watch Russia invade and occupy Northeast China, and during the Eight-Nation Coalition War, overseas Chinese also fought a big war with Russia, thwarting the Russian army's attempt to go south, which was also the largest land war in the Eight-Nation Coalition War, and in the negotiations, Russia was ruthlessly engaged in a ransom fee, and forced Russia to sign a treaty to withdraw troops from Northeast China, and after Russia broke the contract, the East China government repeatedly criticized Russia in strong terms, and refused to release Russian prisoners。 It can also be said that the contradictions between overseas Chinese and Russia are extremely deep.
The enemy of the enemy, of course, is his friend, and objectively speaking, he thinks that there is no major contradiction between himself and the overseas Chinese, although in the First Sino-Japanese War, Japan beat the Qing court, but this war has nothing to do with the overseas Chinese, of course, Japan is also a member of the Eight-Nation Alliance, and the overseas Chinese are at war, but it is not Japan that fights with the overseas Chinese, and now the overseas Chinese and the members of the Eight-Nation Alliance, Germany and the United States, have a good relationship, and Britain, France, Italy, Austria and other countries have also normalized relations, and there is no reason not to make friends with them.
Moreover, during the negotiations, the overseas Chinese did not embarrass Japan too much, and only used an old-fashioned ironclad ship to exchange all the Japanese prisoners back, and compared with the ransom fees of other countries, the price paid by Japan can be regarded as quite slight, and just last year, the two sides reached an agreement on mutual defense against Russia, so the Japanese government judged that there were quite basic conditions for substantive cooperation with the East China government against Russia.
Moreover, the British Government was equally happy to see Japan and overseas Chinese join forces to fight against Russia, because Britain was also not sure that Japan would be able to fight Russia, and it would not personally participate in the war, while overseas Chinese had considerable combat effectiveness, and if they instinctively joined forces with the Chinese, they would basically be invincible, so it was also suggested that Japan should negotiate a substantive alliance with the East China Government as soon as possible.
Therefore, the Japanese government also took the opportunity of the change of consul in Qingdao to formally express its intention to the East China government.
After receiving the documents submitted by Japan, the East China government did not immediately express its position, but asked the Japanese government to give itself a period of discussion. This request is also very reasonable, after all, such a major decision, of course, can not be decided in a short period of time.
After stabilizing Japan, the East China government also immediately convened a special meeting of the Executive Yuan to discuss the issue of joining forces with Russia proposed by Japan, and specially invited Qin Zheng to participate in the discussion.
Of course, the Japanese government will not know that the disgust and hostility of overseas Chinese towards Japan has always had a large market among the travelers, and that a strong Japan will inevitably become China's greatest threat when it is not yet strong. It's just that the East China government needs a stable development time at present, and the main threat facing China now is not Japan, but Russia, so the East China government has not directly aimed the spearhead at Japan, and to a certain extent, it has a certain friendly attitude toward Japan.
As for the Russo-Japanese War that will take place in this time and space, a consensus has already been reached within the East China government, that is, to make full use of the Russo-Japanese War to send troops to participate in the war when both sides are defeated and exhausted, and strive to inflict heavy losses on Japan and Russia in one fell swoop, and then occupy Northeast China to open up space for the further development of the East China Government. Preparations were also made, both for the shipbuilding plan and the army construction plan.
However, this consensus is only a large framework, which lacks a detailed plan, after all, in this time and space, whether there will be a Russo-Japanese War is not yet certain, so it is difficult to make a detailed plan, but now it is basically certain that the Russo-Japanese War will definitely be fought, but Japan will actually put forward a proposal for an alliance to the East China government at this time, which is a big and small problem for the East China government, whether to accept it or not.