The first wave of swine fever that broke out in mid-06 seemed to come and go quickly. Look at 1 gross 2 lines 3 Chinese net

With the treatment of sick pigs in Jiangyou and Min provinces, the situation was ostensibly under control.

Because it was a local outbreak and the lack of understanding of the epidemic, it did not cause much panic in the national pig industry - compared with the hidden swine fever, the continued low meat price is a headache for farmers.

However, people of insight have been keenly aware that this wave of swine fever is unusual, the pressure of medical and epidemic prevention is faintly increasing, and there is a sense of oppression in the pig breeding industry.

For example, Goldman Sachs, the slaughtering and processing enterprises in the downstream of the pig industry chain in which it invests are fine, no matter how the pork market changes, the operation is relatively stable, but the gambling with the upstream breeding enterprise Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has been extremely variable.

As Hu feared, this may be just the beginning.

The outbreak of a large-scale pig epidemic has been mixed for Goldman Sachs.

If there is indeed a large-scale outbreak, the price of pork will undoubtedly rise in response, "pigs fly in the sky", and it can be expected that the increase will not be small. As a result, the possibility of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry completing the VAM index has greatly increased.

Of course, in addition to this, there will also be another situation - the pig farm of Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry is also infected with swine fever.

Although the pig farms of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry are safe and sound in this sudden wave of swine fever, it is believed that even Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry dare not guarantee the same performance in the next wave of swine fever.

This is the case with aquaculture. Maybe after a year or two of hard work, an epidemic hits, and there are no hairs left - in this case, Goldman Sachs can even announce in advance that the shares of Jiagu Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Pig Farm have been acquired.

The situation has become confusing because of a seemingly unserious epidemic, and winning or losing is largely up to their luck. See. Wool, Chinese net

In the same way, the pressure on Goldman Sachs is there, and the pressure on Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry is even greater.

This is the first time that Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry have faced the epidemic at close range, although they survived the difficulties and made a wave of quick money, but they really felt a wave of epidemic prevention pressure, so that the next expansion plan of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry pig farm has made waves.

"I think that the plan of Jiagu Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Pig Farm to 'go big and fast' has to be carefully considered. At a meeting to discuss the development route of pig farms in the next two years, Li Dongliang said with a little hesitation.

According to the original plan, after financing, Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry will plan to build a single pig farm with an annual output of one million pigs, which will be the largest single pig farm in China.

After the completion of this pig farm, the scale of pig farming in Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry will be directly doubled. Li Dongliang was excited at the beginning of the plan, but after experiencing this wave of swine fever himself, his mind has changed somewhat.

Being in the pig industry, I know that pig raising is hard. It is said that the threshold for raising pigs is low, and those who have entered this circle can only smile helplessly. Entering the pig industry, it is not just "choose a place, build a pig house, and enter dozens of pigs" to raise pigs with peace of mind and wait for the money.

In this swine fever, Li Dongliang has seen too many tragedies and raised fat pigs, thinking that tomorrow or a few days will turn it into a reward, but he doesn't want a pig disease, so he lets himself "empty the bamboo basket". This feeling, if you are not a pig farmer, how can you understand the taste?

The pig farm of Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry was lucky to escape the catastrophe, but whether it is the analysis of the group or the laboratory, this wave of swine fever is not an ordinary swine disease, although it comes and goes in a hurry, but because there is no applicable vaccine, the risk of subsequent transmission and outbreak is extremely great.

In extraordinary times, everything must be cautious.

Li Dongliang admits his concerns: "I think the scale of pig farms can be appropriately reduced. Large-scale farms with a single million head of breeding do have great disadvantages in the dispersion of breeding risks. ”

However, there are also those who disagree with changing the original plan.

Wang Yuye frowned and said, "Don't forget that we still have a bet with Goldman Sachs, and the longer it drags on, the more unfavorable it will be for us." What's more, our farms in Jiagu, including pastures and livestock farms, have always done an excellent job in disease prevention and control, and there has never been a problem in this regard. ”

Changing a single large-scale farm with a scale of one million heads to a single farm with 100,000 heads or hundreds of thousands of heads is not only a division of quantity, but also takes into account the distribution of site selection, the procurement arrangement of feed raw materials, the planning of the sales market, etc., as well as the increased difficulty in management coordination...... This is tantamount to doubling the workload of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry, which is racing against time to seek development.

Wang Yuye has to consider it as a whole, no matter what, he is not willing to let the shares of Jiagu Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Pig Farm fall into the hands of Goldman Sachs, so completing the development goals according to the plan is the basis for winning the bet.

But Li Dongliang shook his head and said, "The scale of breeding millions of heads is not as large as the scale of breeding more than 100,000 heads, and the risk will increase exponentially." ”

"To give a simple example, due to the large scale of single pig farms, the frequent sale of live pigs, the need to sell live pigs every month or even every week, the dense traffic of personnel and vehicles, the risk of infection is higher. A farm with an annual slaughter of 1 million pigs, assuming an average slaughter and each pig truck can accommodate 150 pigs, it will need 130 vehicles per week to sell pigs alone. Due to their frequent contact with the outside world, pig trucks are the most important virus carriers. ”

"More importantly, once there is a loophole in prevention and control, whether it is the culling of the epidemic point under the epidemic infection, or the clearance of the factory under the suspected epidemic, it will cause heavy losses to the farm. By then, it was too late. ”

“......”

Qi Zheng listened to the controversy between the two and did not express any opinion.

He understands Li Dongliang's mood, and in one sentence he describes it as "If the pig is well, it is a sunny day".

In the final analysis, the development time of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry is too short, and it has not experienced any serious major epidemics, so it lacks experience in epidemic prevention and control, and lacks the feeling of facing the epidemic head-on.

Although the outbreak was the first time, Li Dongliang quickly strengthened the prevention measures of the pig farm. In front of the gate of the pig farm, there is a disinfection pool containing sodium hydroxide, which is regularly replaced for the disinfection of tires when vehicles enter. In the pig farm, the staff are required to reduce going out, and three meals a day are prepared from the outside and sent in, and each person performs his or her own duties, and is not allowed to go to the house.

Even so, in the face of the epidemic that may be more serious later, Li Dongliang is still worried.

Although both in terms of the transmission path of the plague and the construction capacity of the prevention and control system, compared with free-range farmers, large-scale breeding groups have more advantages in prevention and control. However, whether the advantages can be transformed into actual results depends on the company's own implementation and management capabilities.

Li Dongliang is sure of the management of the breeding scale of more than 100,000 heads, but in the face of the scale of millions of heads, in this situation, it is a little numb.

Qi Zheng can't tell him directly that it's okay, I can open the hanging, and ensure that the pig farm is safe and sound in the face of the epidemic, you are bold to raise.

Just when Qi Zhengtou was in power, Xie Kaiji of Jiagu Agriculture, a bystander, put forward several insightful suggestions: "I think that the epidemic of swine fever is inseparable from three factors: the source of infection, the transmission route and the susceptible animals. As long as the external isolation and protection are done, the internal immunity and disease resistance of the pig herd are improved, and the prevention is strengthened, it can be isolated and reduce the possibility of infection. ”

"What do you think of this? The million-head pig farm plan remains unchanged, but in terms of specific construction, the '1+5' farm structure is adopted. That is, every 1 10,000 sow farms drive 5 10,000 fattening farms. This business structure is somewhat similar to 'company + farmer', which separates piglet production from pig fattening, and decentralizes the production scale in the fattening stage, effectively reducing the pressure on disease prevention and control. ”

"At the same time, I know a person who has been working on the use of Chinese herbal medicine to prevent livestock diseases for more than 10 years, which may be helpful to our farm. ”

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