In mid-July, the National Grain and Oil Information Center announced the latest supply and demand forecast for the domestic soybean market in advance.

The report predicts: "China's soybean sowing area in 2013 was 7.2 million hectares, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, and the total soybean output was 25 million tons, an increase of 66% year-on-year......

Pour "water" on the fire, and pour "water" on the fire of Qing Lingling.

Not long ago, the resurgence of dry weather speculation in the Midwest of the United States, coupled with the pressure of the spread of "super weeds" in the eastern United States and Brazil, the United States Department of Agriculture sharply lowered the production of soybeans in the United States, and the market was worried about the lack of soybean supply in the later period, which promoted the international soybean price curve to draw a beautiful upward arc.

Now that China has come out of nowhere, this latest supply and demand forecast report is tantamount to pouring a basin of cold water into a fire, and the steam boils in an instant.

The National Development and Reform Commission and Jiagu and other parties also saw the shock wave brought by this news.

In the past, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its global soybean export forecast in anticipation of a sharp reduction in soybean production, international soybean prices generally rose in response, and the increase was very large, forcing soybean importing countries to buy soybeans at high prices.

But this time, the world's largest soybean import market sent a signal that the import demand will decline, and the concern about the export market instantly exceeded the worry about the production cut, and the international soybean price rise trend has come to a standstill, and there is a faint downward momentum.

The reason why it has not yet shown a downward trend is that the market does not yet trust China's soybean supply and demand forecasts.

Even so, Qi Zheng, who is in Brazil, also clearly feels the shock brought by the revitalization of domestic soybeans to the international market.

Some soybean traders in Brazil immediately stopped buying soybeans from farmers to avoid losses, and the local barn of Jiagu International Branch was answering the phone all morning, and farmers wanted to sell their grain today.

Soybean farmers are also worried, and although the soybean planting season is still some time away, the dramatic changes in the Chinese market have really affected their planting plans – banks have become cautious and have been slow to issue loans for farm operations, and many have had to adjust their planting plans due to concerns about the Chinese market, such as reducing the soybean planting area.

American soybean farmers have their eyes set on the Chinese market.

Soon, a knock-on effect emerged.

Both American and Brazilian grain merchants have been canceled by some Chinese buyers for soybean orders in the fourth quarter, and the Chinese market has really "shrunk" for them!

The international soybean market was in an uproar.

International soybean prices fluctuated and fell.

For the first time, the international soybean price situation "deviated" from the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture - not in a month or two, not in half a year and a year, but in just ten days and eight days.

Many soybean farmers have only then realized what the largest import market means? Not all of them are lost, but only some of the demand needs have been cut, and the market has been in a panic.

There are also quite a few "brick families" in the United States, who questioned in a very mean tone, "the sown area has only increased by 8.2%, but the total production has increased by 66% year-on-year, are the Chinese giving soybeans hormones"; and then directly questioned China's forecast data, believing that China is unlikely to leave American soybeans, let alone American soybeans.

Of course, there are not a few people with bright eyes and bright hearts.

......

A golf course on the outskirts of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Schroder, CEO of Bunge South America, invited Qi Zheng to play golf together.

When standing on a golf course with a large green area, away from the hustle and bustle and haze, enjoy the pure air and environment, and the pleasure of body and mind, in addition to golf, sailing can be comparable.

Qi Zheng is tall, like a straight tree, swinging, and the small white ball flies out at a speed of 190 km/h - the posture is beautiful, but ...... The little white ball flew off.

On the contrary, Schroeder, who was a little bloated, made a beautiful small left curve and successfully sent the small white ball to the predetermined position, showing an excellent level.

Qi Zheng shook his head and smiled: "It seems that I am really not good at golf. ”

Schroeder laughed: "No, that's the beauty of the sport. The variety makes the ball difficult to control, and the different landing points of the ball require different ways of playing, as a famous professional golfer said, golf is a fascinating sport, and it took me 40 years to realize: I can't play it!"

Qi Zheng hehe: "I don't have to spend forty years, and now I find out that I can't beat it well." ”

Schroeder shook his head: "The more difficult the golf ball is, the more it stimulates the inner desire to conquer, isn't it? ”

Qi Zheng is clear, here he is!

After winning the American grain merchant Gao Hong, Jiagu has a wider range of news channels in the United States. Combined with the news of Jiagu's financial department, Qi Zheng already knew that in this wave of Chinese soybeans on the international market, Bunge misjudged the situation - Bunge was affected by drought weather and super weeds, and went long in the soybean futures market, but unexpectedly encountered the "shrinkage" of the Chinese market, and losses inevitably appeared.

"While bad weather is a cause for concern, uncertainty about the future is what worries us the most. Qi Dong, as a partner of Bunge, I would like to know whether China can really reduce its dependence on soybean imports?" Schroeder asked with a seemingly sincere appearance.

Clearly, it is impossible for Bunge not to be unaware of the role that Jiagu has played in the changes in China's soybean market.

Qi Zheng did not deny it, shrugged his shoulders and said: "We have fully exploited some of the potential of domestic soybeans, so it is expected to increase the self-sufficiency rate a little." ”

was confirmed by Qi Zheng, but Schroeder smiled bitterly.

Well, the addition of 10 million tons of soybeans is indeed a "slightly" increase in self-sufficiency for the Chinese market.

But for the international market, the impact is really not "slightly" large.

Just as the market is short of 10% of food, and the price of food cannot rise by only 10%, but by 100%, the addition of 10 million tons of soybeans does not only mean that the market has increased soybean production by 3.5%.

Regardless of the fact that the United States is speculating about the reduction of soybean production, most of the world's grain production with a high degree of commercialization suffers from surplus, and soybeans are also in surplus in the international market.

However, this does not prevent the capital that holds the pricing power from "creating" a relative shortage and pushing up the price of excess soybeans, anyway, Chinese who can't do without American soybeans will always pay, right?

But as Qi Zheng said, they all underestimated the production potential of China's soybeans. The Chinese have demonstrated their ability to reduce their dependence on imported soybeans – not only damaging market confidence in higher soybean prices, but also completely remapping global soybean trade flows.

In other words, the heavens are about to change!

Schroeder watched as he nonchalantly swung his swing, and then ...... Qi Zheng, who missed the ball again, simply loved and hated.

Love is because this guy brings hope to kill the "super weed", and hate is that this guy is robbing their market all the time.

But, no matter how much you hate, if it is profitable, you have to cooperate with it.

Schroeder took a deep breath, hit the ground with a golf club, and said to Qi Zheng with a smile: "Qi Dong, are you interested in talking about Jiagu's special rhizobia?"

......