Hu Zhili is undoubtedly an extremely shrewd person who can serve as the general manager of Goldman Sachs Investments' East Asia division. See. Wool, Chinese net

After listening to Qi Zheng's conditions, he immediately asked: "Mr. Qi thinks that pork prices will skyrocket in the next two years and reach the highest point in two years?"

Qi Zheng took the initiative to raise the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 120 and shorten it to two years, so he naturally felt that Jiagu had a chance to win the bet. Only the situation he analyzed can explain Qi Zheng's confidence.

Qi Zheng did not deny it, and nodded yes.

Judging the price of goods, a hundred people have a hundred sayings. Hu Zhili would not affect his judgment because of this, but Qi Zheng's attitude was too firm, so that he said tentatively: "Mr. Qi is so confident, what unusual situation has he discovered?"

As soon as these words came out, Hu Zhili's heart jumped.

According to common sense, the pig cycle will come as scheduled, and pork prices will inevitably rise, but this should be a medium and long-term behavior, in Goldman Sachs' judgment, pork prices will rise steadily in the next three years, but the increase will not be too amazing.

There is only one situation that will lead to a sharp rise in pig prices, and that is the emergence of large-scale swine fever.

Hu Zhi immediately asked, "Where did the signs of swine fever appear?"

Qi Zheng admired Hu Zhili's sensitivity, but calmly spread his hands and said, "No." If there were such signs, I believe that Goldman Sachs would not know about it later than Gagaku, wouldn't it?"

Hu Zhili thought carefully about the pig market research recently tracked by the investment department, and indeed, there was no information about swine fever, so he was relieved. He is very confident in Goldman Sachs' ability to gather information, and if Jiagu can get such important information, Goldman Sachs will not be able to ignore it.

So what is the basis for Qi Zheng's confidence?

Hu Zhili reminded Qi Zhengdao meaninglessly: "Mr. Qi really dares to gamble." With a revenue compound annual growth rate of 120% for two consecutive years, you are betting on the hot pork market...... If pork prices don't skyrocket as you hope, 40 percent of Jiagu Pig Farm's stake will fall into Goldman Sachs' hands. ”

"But if it is as I wish, Jiagu can get a huge interest-free loan with a term of several years, which will greatly supplement the cash flow of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry. Correspondingly, Goldman Sachs will also have to suffer several years of interest losses and inflation losses...... "Qi Zheng fought back and slandered: I'm not gambling, I just know that pork prices will skyrocket."

Qi Zheng does not easily participate in gambling, but he will cheat when he gambles.

Pork prices at the beginning of this year were indeed weak, but soon, a series of "black swan events" followed. Swine fever did break out, and there were two outbreaks, resulting in a shortage of live pigs, and at the beginning of 08, natural disasters also broke out, kicking the recovery of the pig market...... It can be said that many factors have created the high price of pork in the next two years.

Hu Zhili felt Qi Zheng's strong confidence, didn't say anything, and returned to the gambling itself: "Mr. Qi has increased the financing amount, but shortened the gambling period, which makes me a little embarrassed." ”

Qi Zheng smiled faintly and said: "But I also raised the equity of the mortgage and the VAM index, right? In my opinion, judging by the market conditions reflected in the VAM index you set, there is not much difference between the VAM period and three years, isn't it? In this case, I dare to raise the bet, why don't you dare to accept it?"

Qi Zheng's words made Hu Zhili speechless.

The main thing is that Qi Zheng is reasonable.

Since Goldman Sachs has judged that the price of pork is rising steadily, it is impossible for pork sales of the same output to reach 100% growth. As for the expansion of the scale of production, let's put it this way, pig breeding is a long production cycle of the industry - piglets to pigs need to go through a 70-day nursery period plus 4 months of fattening period, a total period of about 6 months, if it is calculated from the sow, from the 4-month-old gilts to the slaughter of commercial pigs, it takes about 14 months.

In two years, if the efficiency is low, the pigs will not even be able to catch up with the slaughter. From this point of view, shortening the VAM cycle is undoubtedly more beneficial to Goldman Sachs.

In this case, a compound annual growth rate of 100 for three consecutive years is a bet, and a compound annual growth rate of 120 for two consecutive years will wither, which doesn't make sense!

But doesn't Qi Zheng know this truth? Obviously not, but he just dares to make such a bet.

Although Hu Zhili believed in his own judgment, Qi Zheng's fearless appearance made him more vigilant in his heart.

Qi Zheng probably understood Hu Zhili's entanglement, thought about it, and said to Hu Zhili: "Mr. Hu, you can think about it first. But if you want to gamble, you have to follow my terms, otherwise I would rather slow down the development of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry. And before that, you might as well attend our Pork Supply Conference. ”

"Pork supply conference?" Hu Zhili couldn't react.

......

Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry now has four large pig farms in the country.

There are two levels of this.

In Pucheng County, the birthplace of Mingu Province, Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry's pig farm has expanded to a herd of 160,000 heads, with local self-produced high-quality forage as the main feed, focusing on the high-end pork market, while the other three pig farms are located in Jiangyou Province, an important base for Jiagu rice acquisition, Hei Province, where Jiagu's domestic soybean base is located, and Jiangnan Province, where Jiagu's largest soybean crushing plant is located.

The layout of these three pig farms is mainly concentrated in the main grain producing areas or soybean import and processing areas, which is conducive to Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry to formulate refined feed formulas, digest the products processed by Jiagu grain and oil on the spot, and effectively control the cost of raw materials.

The three pig farms produce a total of 750,000 pigs per year, focusing on the ordinary pork market.

If the annual slaughter of more than 900,000 pigs is put into the scale of 600 million pigs slaughtered in the country, Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry can only be regarded as a drop in the ocean. But if as an individual, even in Min Province, where there are many pig enterprises, it is also a large-scale breeding enterprise among the best.

The amount of pork produced by Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry is only a handful of the general market, but its customers are all over the country.

Although it is difficult for consumers to see pork produced by Jiagu Agribusiness on supermarket shelves, many people have actually eaten Jiagu Agro's products in restaurants and hotels across the country.

Thanks to the operation of the food distribution subsidiary of Jiagu Commerce and Trade, as well as the experience of participating in the Agricultural Expo for two consecutive years, although Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry is not well known in TOC, it is a leader in the industry in terms of TOB.

Needless to say, the high-end pork of Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry is an "ordinary" commercial pig, even if the feed eaten is normal feed, but drinking the pure water purified by the "Bibo Qinghua Array", and enjoying the aura cleansing body of the "Three-star Gathering Spirit Array", the quality is far better than the ordinary pork on the market.

Therefore, the pork produced by Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry is in short supply in large hotels and restaurants in China.

In order to coordinate the supply, Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has held a pork supply conference every year since last year. Hotel purchasing representatives from all over the world came together to sign a new supply agreement.

Qi Zheng took Hu Zhili to participate in this year's supply conference.

The supply conference was presided over by Wang Yuye, and Qi Zheng and Hu Zhili visited below in a low-key manner.

"A total of 68 restaurants, hotels and regional food suppliers participated in the supply conference. Qi Zheng introduced to Hu Zhili.

Hu Zhili was surprised. Because of Qi Zheng's introduction, the purchasing representatives shortlisted for the supply conference are all well-known hotels and restaurants in China, and those regional food suppliers cover a larger range.

What surprised him even more was that these purchasing representatives' thirst for pork produced by Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry could really be described as "grabbing".

Even if the average price of "ordinary pork" produced by Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry is more than 10 yuan kilograms, you must know that the average price of live pigs on the market has dropped to less than 7 yuan kilograms, and Jiagu's high-end pork is divided at a price of 25 yuan catties.

Qi Zheng said: "The quality of the pigs raised by our Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry is better than that of ordinary pork on the market. Even if the price is high, the hotels that taste the sweetness are willing to buy our pork. ”

Because Jiagu did not release revenue data, Goldman Sachs' revenue of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry can only be measured by estimate. Seeing the supply conference in front of him, Hu Zhili silently raised his expectations for Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry in his heart.

Immediately, Hu Zhili understood where Qi Zheng's confidence in winning the bet came from - the business situation of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry was even better than he imagined.

This discovery eliminated many of Hu Zhili's doubts, and the good performance of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry made his mind of joining the stock even more intense.

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