What gave Qi Zheng this confidence was, of course, Comrade Lao Mei, Jiagu's "international friend". Look at 'Mao's line, Chinese, and net

The huge amount of money obtained by Qi Zheng from selling oil fields in the United States has been the biggest impetus for Jiagu's development so far; now that this dividend has been exhausted, fortunately, the opportunity to "gather wool" has come again.

In mid-August, Qi Zheng traveled to New York, USA.

For the United States, August was a roller coaster ride, as hurricanes above 85 made landfall after mid-August.

Although the United States claims to be the "lighthouse of mankind", the lighthouse is often the face of storms, and the United States has suffered from hurricanes all year round - from this point of view, the "lighthouse nation" is somewhat worthy of the name.

Qi Zheng came this time to remember the super hurricane "Katrina" that the United States encountered.

Of course, Qi Zheng is not here to be a savior, he is interested in the opportunities brought by the arrival of "Katrina" to the "Assassin" hedge fund.

The "Assassin" hedge fund has recently been focusing on the crude oil futures market.

Last year, affected by the Iraq war, the international crude oil price once again exceeded $40 per barrel, and then continued to rise, and exceeded $50 for the first time.

The price of oil is affected by many factors.

The law of supply and demand has a direct impact on oil prices – every OPEC production cut or increase will lead to big ups and downs in oil prices, and politics will also affect oil prices – every political instability in the Middle East will lead to fluctuations in oil prices...... Finally, natural disasters can also affect oil prices – "Katrina" is a prime example of this.

Qi Zheng, who came with his memories, was confident in the coming hurricane, but Jiang Ping and Su Fang of the hedge fund couldn't do that.

The period from late August to early to mid-September is the peak period for hurricanes in the United States. However, not all hurricanes will have an impact on crude oil prices, because hurricanes make landfall in different locations, and if they avoid oil-producing areas and refinery clusters, they will have little impact on the oil market.

"Most of the hurricanes that affect the oil market make landfall in nearby states in the Gulf of Mexico. I think the hurricanes that formed in the Gulf of Mexico this year will further boost the current rise in crude oil prices. Qi Zhengping said his judgment bluntly, or rather, re-emphasized his judgment.

The U.S. Gulf of Mexico region accounts for about 15 percent of U.S. crude oil production and is also home to a high concentration of U.S. refineries. Seven major refineries are located near the coastline of Louisiana and Mississippi, accounting for about 10 percent of total U.S. refining capacity.

If you look at the impact of hurricane landfall, it is indeed a positive factor - in order to prevent the threat of hurricanes in advance, most of the U.S. oil rigs will evacuate employees and close some drilling wells in advance, resulting in a decline in crude oil production, which in turn will support oil prices. Judging from the situation before and after the hurricane hit in previous years, oil prices as a whole are also on an upward trend.

But beware, it's the whole, not the whole, because there are variables.

Su Fang, the Foundation's "second-in-command", did not understand Qi Zheng's insistence, and he shook his head and said, "The impact of the hurricane mainly depends on the three-point landfall and movement area, the strength and duration of the wind. ”

"The landfall and movement area determines whether the hurricane hits the oil-producing area or the refinery, or both. ”

In other words, if the hurricane avoids the crude oil production platform in the U.S. Gulf region, the U.S. crude oil supply will not be a problem, and the impact on oil prices will be limited.

"The strength of the wind determines the destructive power of the hurricane, and the duration is also important, and some hurricanes, although strong, quickly weaken into tropical storms or even dissipate, and the impact is relatively limited. ”

Su Fang said that the more determined his attitude became, "In addition, during the hurricane, it was not all positive factors, but a mixture of good and empty." ”

Qi Zheng admitted that Su Fang had a point.

A hurricane forcing refineries to shut down crude oil demand, and a reduction in crude oil processing could lead to an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, which is negative for oil prices – that is, oil prices fall, and the hurricane's impact on crude oil production and the expectation of supply contraction is good for oil prices – that is, oil prices rise.

In this case, for the trader, it depends on which instant message has more influence on his judgment.

Su Fang finally asked, "So, Boss Qi, what do you rely on to make the judgment that this year's hurricane will lead to good oil prices?"

Jiang Ping on the side was silent, but obviously had the same doubts as Su Fang.

Qi Zheng smiled and said, "Predicting oil prices, whether it rises or falls, is well-founded and well-founded. The result can only be true in one possibility. ”

Indeed, if you look at someone who doesn't know much about the oil economy, you can come up with several reasons for the price of oil to rise, and several reasons for the price of oil to fall.

However, it is impossible for him to judge the rise and fall of oil. Especially when it goes up and when it falls, it's a black eye.

Don't look at the various policy research institutions in the market, they are all buying lottery tickets. If they are allowed to pay for their own money to bet on the ups and downs, nine times out of ten they will pretend to be dumb.

Qi Zheng knows the trend of ups and downs because he knows that the "Katrina" Category 5 hurricane, which made landfall in the United States at the end of the month, raged from the Gulf of the United States to the interior, and only weakened into a strong tropical storm more than 12 hours after landfall, lasting as long as half a month, and the entire affected area was almost the same as the land area of the United Kingdom, giving very solid positive support to oil prices.

But I can't say that directly.

Qi Zheng thought for a moment, and made the last move very seriously, "If you want me to come up with any data to explain, to be honest, I don't." But there was a very strong intuition that prompted me to make such a judgment. ”

Qi Zheng's legendary experience of finding a large oil field with "intuition" was publicized by Zhang Zehong, and everyone in the company's senior management knew about it. Rao is so, it is said that this is also a rather ridiculous reason, but Jiang Ping and Su Fang's serious expressions show that they take Qi Zheng's reason to heart.

Because, in financial investment, the term "intuition" is very magical.

Most investment decisions, when there is sufficient data, can be used to make decisions.

But not all decisions can be made in such a mathematically based way – sometimes, there is no historical data to guide at all, and prospective experimentation is not possible.

While data, analytics, and models also play a role in this decision-making, the real main factor is intuition. The confidence of this "intuition" comes from thinking and understanding the essence of the problem.

Jiang Ping said, "In my work experience, I have come into contact with all kinds of investors who do quantitative investment, and they are clearly divided into two categories. ”

"The first type of person is to first find the main logic of investment, and then use mathematical methods to prove and quantitatively find an approximate optimal solution under this logic. Like me, like Su Fang. ”

"The second type of person is to find the holy grail of investment in a mathematical way, regardless of the underlying logic, stock price, valuation, earnings, and financial indicators are all numbers. ”

"The second type of people is very numerous. But either way, both are data decisions. And in the world of investment, there is also the existence of survivorship bias like Buffett and Munger. ”

Investment guru Warren Buffett often says that he doesn't look at "data" and relies on "intuition" to make decisions.

Jiang Ping feels that Qi Zheng probably has this characteristic of Buffett.

"Having been in the investment industry for so long, my biggest lesson is not to think that you know everything, and don't trust the 'experts' who claim to know everything and make a profit. But pay attention to the kind of people who make successful investments based on 'intuition', because they often have a deep understanding of the business world and society, and their judgments are actually directed to the essence of business. Therefore, the judgment made by the boss based on intuition really cannot be measured by common sense. Jiang Ping analyzed with a mortal awe of genius.

Su Fang also nodded in agreement.

Qi Zheng was dumbfounded, I didn't, I had no way to be a "god stick", how could I be analyzed by you, I became a "genius" that I haven't met in a century?

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