Chapter 378: No One Sleeps Tonight
Sister Zhuang came to Shanghai early, cleaned the room, worked as a nanny in Shanghai for many years, and the most favorite and most comfortable thing is here for this little couple, they don't treat her like a thief like the locals here, but treat her like a big sister.
Heart-to-heart, she also treats them and their children as her own relatives.
Hearing the sound of the door opening, she greeted the door, and after the door opened, she hurriedly took the child from Dong Min's hand, and then said: "I received your call, I have cooked all the food, and you can eat it later." ”
Qin Fan said gently: "Thank you for your hard work, Sister Zhuang." ”
"It's not hard, you're hard. "Sister Zhuang is from here, and she knows that it is not easy to take care of children, especially Qin Fan and Dong Min, who are both people who have to work outside.
The souvenirs brought from her hometown were handed over to Sister Zhuang, and Sister Zhuang accepted them politely.
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On February 6, the first day of work after the holiday, General Manager Wei of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was invited to visit the United States and Australia. According to the arrangement of the invited party, it was originally scheduled to return to China and fly back to Shanghai on the 28th.
Although there was nothing special about him when he set off, there was always an indescribable premonition in his heart about the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and he finally hesitated and decided to change the ticket to return to China in advance.
Due to flight delays, it was the early morning of the 21st when the plane landed at Hongqiao Airport in Shanghai.
On the afternoon of Tuesday on the 21st, General Manager Wei rushed to work at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and at the close of the day, the Shanghai Treasury Bond Futures Trading Market set a new record of 6.28 million transactions.
Wei Wenyuan felt that the market was abnormal, so he convened the director of the market (supervision) and the manager of the treasury bond futures department on the morning of the 22nd to study the market situation, and discussed and preliminarily drafted several targeted improvement measures accordingly.
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"I walked and walked in front, and when I looked back, I saw why no one was coming up. This is the classic saying of Guan Jinsheng, who is on a business trip to Hong Kong.
The ordinary footsteps of the strongman, the subordinates often can't keep up, and the unusual behavior of the strongman can only let the subordinates quietly wait for his return.
The decision-making vacuum of Wanguo Securities lasted until February 16, when Guan Jinsheng finally returned from a business trip to Hong Kong.
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"Fanzi, now that the treasury bond futures market is fighting very badly, maybe something will happen in this market?" Are you sure you have to ......?" Liang Heng hesitated to persuade, and the market in the past few days made him, an old man in the futures industry, feel frightened.
Qin Fan didn't ask much about the countermeasures of the head of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and he also took Liang Heng's persuasion to heart, he only knew that one result would be OK.
"Brother Liang, I know your worries, but isn't there a crazy rumor on the market that the government is going to discount the interest rate? I think the discount is certain, but it's just a matter of more and less subsidy. Besides, I'm just playing around, and as for you...... Decide for yourselves. Qin Fan hesitated for a moment and said.
Qin Fan opened an account with himself and Dong Min each, and each entered 10 million operating margins.
The unit of the treasury bond futures contract is called the mouth, and the value of each mouth is the product of the market price of each 100 yuan treasury bond futures and 2,000 yuan, which is 200,000 yuan according to the face value of 100 yuan, and the customer must pay 5,000 yuan to the securities futures dealer for each contract when opening a position, and the margin ratio is only 2.5%, which is a typical small fight for big!
What is the concept of using a few thousand yuan of funds to make hundreds of thousands of transactions? For example, if you give an order to an agent brokerage firm to establish a 100-bit long warehouse receipt on a certain treasury bond futures variety A, you need to pay a margin of 500,000 yuan.
If the price of opening a position is 100 yuan, A rises by 1 yuan, then the established warehouse receipt can make a profit of 2,000 yuan per bit, 100 is a profit of 200,000 yuan, if A rises by 2.5 yuan, the invested funds will be doubled!
Of course, this is only the so-called floating profit, if you don't close the position, the profit can't be considered your own. Of course, this is a good side, but if the variety drops by 2.5 yuan, then the old capital will be lost!
In order to control risks, the Shanghai Stock Exchange stipulates that if there is a floating loss due to adverse fluctuations in the price of treasury bond futures, resulting in the margin paid being lower than the minimum maintenance margin of RMB 3,000 per contract, the Securities and Futures Chamber of Commerce will immediately collect RMB 5,000 from the customer.
If A falls by one yuan at the above price, but the follow-up funds are not made up in time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange will close the 100 positions, which will lead to a loss of 200,000 yuan, and this is a relatively stable situation.
If the market rises and falls, it may not have time to make up for the funds, it will fall by three or four dollars, and the brokerage has not had time to force the liquidation at the price with a small loss, and will have to close the position at the price where there is no return, then hundreds of thousands, millions, or even tens of billions of funds will be swept away by others in an instant.
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"Brother Liang, the funds in my account should be enough, and it depends on you to make up the position in time. Qin Fan instructed.
Liang Heng nodded, indicating that Qin Fan was reassured, but then asked, "You still have more orders?"
Qin Fan glanced at him and said with a smile: "Brother Liang, why do you have any worries?"
Liang Heng thought for a while and said: "Now most of the short orders in Shanghai are the main ones, and the Beijing side is mainly bulls. It's because of that rumor that you ......"
Qin Fan said with a smile: "It should be rumors that will soon turn into facts." ”
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After going out, Liang Heng was stopped by Li Xianzheng, who had been silent just now: "Lao Liang, Lao Liang, wait a minute." ”
Liang Heng stopped and asked, "Lao Li, is there anything else?"
"You say, can I make a small order with the back?" Li Xianzheng consulted.
"Yes, yes, but the follow-up funds must be sufficient, otherwise if you don't make up the position in time, you will have no pennies left on your account, and the water in it is deep." Liang Heng explained.
Li Xianzheng discussed the twists and turns with Liang Heng as he walked, and how many contracts could be bought with the total amount of funds.
Dong Min stood by the window with Qin Fan in his arms, looking at the backs of Liang Heng and Li Xianzheng leaving.
"Fanzi, I'm a little scared when I heard what Brother Liang said just now, can we not take such a big risk?" Dong Min said uneasily.
Qin Fan chuckled and patted her hand and comforted: "There is a risk, but it is not as afraid of people as Brother Liang said." Don't worry, I know what to expect. ”
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The "327" contract launched by the Shanghai Stock Exchange is a 3-year futures product issued by the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1992 for delivery in June (F92306, where F represents futures, "92" refers to the issuance in 1992, "3" represents the 3-year period, and "06" indicates delivery in June 1995).
"327" itself has no meaning, it is just a code of P92306 in the stock and treasury bond trading system of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and there is no difference between "600688" representing "Shanghai Petrochemical".
The bull market of the "327" contract started in mid-October, and the "327" contract rose from the closing price of 135 yuan on October 20, 1994 to the closing price of 146.72 yuan on December 16, an increase of 11.72 yuan in less than two months, when the Shanghai Stock Exchange's treasury bond futures margin was 2% (the margin of institutional investors was less than 2%), and the profit of long positions had reached 586%.
If 100 million yuan is invested, in less than two months, this asset has become 586 million yuan.
On December 16, 1994, the cash bonds corresponding to the "327" variety were only half a year away from the redemption period, and the total redemption amount was only 128.5 yuan, and the futures price was 18.22 yuan higher than the cash price.
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On the evening of February 22, 1995, the Ministry of Finance issued the first and second announcements, starting from March 1, the issuance of the 1995 three certificate treasury bonds, with an annual interest rate of 14 percent, and the implementation of a hedging subsidy, the new bonds to be issued as high as 14 percent interest rate, to the market discount controversy has been infinite imagination, but also directly triggered the market expectation that the 1992 three treasury bonds will be greatly discounted.
With the news officially announced on the news network, on the evening of the 22nd, a market rumor quickly spread from Beijing, saying that the government had agreed to implement a two-year discount of 2.74% per year on the 1992 three-year treasury bills, as well as a hedging subsidy, according to which it was estimated that the price of the 327 contract would be at least 5.48 yuan higher than the closing price on the 22nd.
The rumors of interest discounts, which have been circulating in the market for two days, have been confirmed by Gao Qi's annual interest rate in the news of the issuance of new treasury bonds, and the specific value of the discount has been "true" in private rumors.
The purpose of the discount policy is to promote the issuance of new treasury bonds in 1995, which is beneficial to the work of the primary market, but the impact on the secondary market, especially the treasury bond futures market, is not trivial.
According to the original income constraints, the short seller sells the contract at a price of 148 yuan, and after the discount, he must buy the cash treasury bond at a price of more than 153 yuan to complete the settlement.
According to the calculation of the position on the 22nd, Shanghai alone will have at least 4 billion interest redistribution due to interest discounts in the 327 contract transaction, and the market pattern is suddenly unbalanced!
The unquiet night before the earth-shattering changes, under the calm night, was accompanied by money, wealth, beauty, ambition, calculation, dreams......
Everyone's heart is stirred up to the point that "no one sleeps tonight"!
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