In September 1903, Japanese Foreign Minister Komura Shotaro paid an official visit to the East China Government, and of course the main purpose was to negotiate and cooperate with the East China Government on various matters related to the war against Russia.

The Japanese government originally planned to hold consultations with the East China government in July and August, but it was delayed until September, mainly because in the past few months, Japan's diplomatic activities have been very frequent, and two rounds of negotiations have been held between Japan and Russia, but both sides are still unwilling to make concessions, so no results have been achieved, although the two sides have not announced the breakdown of the talks, and agreed to hold a third negotiation in November-December, but even Japan and Russia do not believe that the third negotiation can make any progress.

In addition to the hope of 1/10,000 hope for peace, there is another important reason why the two sides are willing to negotiate again, that is, both sides are not fully prepared at present, so it will take some time, of course, the two sides do not rule out using this time of preparation to force the other side to make concessions, after all, it is better not to fight without war.

Of course, there is no small difference between the two sides, because the Trans-Siberian Railway was not fully completed, which caused the Russian army, Although at this time Russia had gathered nearly 400,000 troops in the Far East, and the navy had seven battleships and four armored cruisers, which was indeed quite a lot in terms of troops, the army was only equipped with eight Maxim machine guns, and although the number of artillery was quite large, there were only field artillery, no mountain artillery, and the shell base of most of the artillery was insufficient, and the army did not have an accurate map of the Far East; in terms of the distribution of troops, the Russian army was mainly concentrated in Arthur, Liaoyang, Mukden, Haisanwei and other places, but in the border areas bordering the Korean Peninsula in the northeast, there is no garrison army.

In terms of the navy, Russia originally had two naval bases in the Far East, namely Arthur and Haisanwei, so the fleet had to be stationed in two groups, but the two naval bases were separated by more than 2,000 kilometers, and there was a lack of unified command, and the distribution of warships was also extremely uneven; all seven battleships were moored in Port Arthur, but there was only one armored cruiser; but there were three armored cruisers in Haisanwei, and there was not a single battleship. In addition, the battleships in the harbor of Arthur had only 153 rounds of 12-inch shells, while the Haisanwei without battleships had 1037 rounds of 12-inch shells.

In contrast, Japan's preparations for war are much better, by this time, Japan's naval and land forces have been completely prepared for war, theoretically speaking, war can start at any time, and Japan's shortcomings lie in the international environment and the attitude of other countries, Bi Jing In the eyes of Japan, Russia is still a behemoth, and without the support of external forces, Japan will not dare to start a war against Russia alone.

Immediately after the conclusion of the second negotiation between Japan and Russia, Japan launched a series of diplomatic activities, sending officials to visit Britain, France, Germany, the United States, and other countries, or to negotiate, or negotiate, or to probe, or to pull Long, of course, all in order to make final preparations for war, and the East China government could only put it behind.

Komura Shotaro, who was on a visit to the East China Government this time, was an outstanding Japanese diplomat in this era, and successively served as minister to the DPRK, the United States, Russia, and the Qing Dynasty; after Katsura Taro came to power to form a cabinet, he became foreign minister; although he was nicknamed "Minister Rat" because of his short stature and cunning and treacherous personality, he still performed quite well in handling major events such as the First Sino-Japanese War, the invasion of China by the Eight-Nation Alliance, the Japanese-British alliance, and the Manchurian issue.

At the beginning of the establishment of the East China government, Komura Shoutaro was the minister to the Qing Dynasty, and he had dealt with and participated in the negotiations in Shanghai, so he still knew a lot about the traversers. Before his mission to Qingdao, Komura had just visited Britain and reached a series of agreements with Britain, in which Britain once again promised to support Japan's war against Russia within the framework of the treaty of the [Anglo-Japanese Alliance].

It was with this confidence that Komura Shoutaro returned to China only three days ago, and immediately embarked on another journey to visit Qingdao.

Although before that, Germany had sent Prince Heinrich's private naval minister Tirpitz to visit Qingdao, Prince Heinrich was not an official official of the German government, and Tirpitz's visit was a secret visit, and neither the East China government nor Germany made public the itinerary of the visit. This time, Komura Shotaro visited Qingdao in his capacity as Japanese foreign minister and brought with him official credentials, which is in fact the fact that the East China government is regarded as a sovereign state.

The East China government also received Komura Shoutaro very ceremoniously, Bi Jing is now the two sides are still cooperating, Xia Bohai met with Komura Shoutaro at the first time, and received the credentials, and set up a banquet to entertain Komura Shoutaro. Of course, the talks between the two sides were false, after all, it was impossible for Xia Bohai to personally negotiate with Komura Shoutaro about the matter. And the real dry goods were on the third day, negotiated by Foreign Affairs Commissioner Li Sanjie and Komura Shoutaro.

Since the two sides had reached a cooperative relationship before, they were not polite, and after greeting each other, Komura Shoutaro went straight to the point and said: " Member Li, according to our judgment in Japan, it is very likely that Russia will start a war in the first half of 1904, and Russia is the greatest threat to the East China Government and Japan, and if Russia is allowed to start a war while both of us passively respond to the war, I am afraid it will not be beneficial to us, so I think we should take the initiative to attack, and I wonder if the East China Government will be able to wage war in the first half of 1904."

Li Sanjie despised Komura Shoutaro in his heart, didn't he just want to use the tactics of sneak attack to fight without declaring war? To put it so high-soundingly, sneak attack was an old Japanese method, the First Sino-Japanese War, the Russo-Japanese War was the same, and in the old time and space, the later Pacific War was still like this. However, he couldn't say it in front of Komura Shoutaro, but Li Sanjie had already dealt with it, and said: " Foreign Minister Komura, according to the information we have, it is basically impossible for Russia to start a war in the first half of 1904, because they are not ready for war, although Russia has amassed a large number of troops in the Far East, the distribution of troops is extremely unreasonable, and the materials and ammunition are not sufficient, and more importantly, the Trans-Siberian Railway has not yet been built, so we believe that it is impossible for Russia to start a war before 1905, or even in the first half of 1905. ”

Although he was hit with a nail, Komura Shoutaro's face remained unchanged, he was a person who had dealt with overseas Chinese, and he knew that this group of people was by no means easy to fool, and he also knew that since 1903, overseas Chinese have set up more than 10 merchant houses in the northeast in the name of trade, of course, all for the purpose of collecting intelligence, although the overseas Chinese started late, but after all, it is a Chinese, and it is easy to get the support of the local people, so the actual situation in Russia, overseas Chinese should be able to find out clearly.

Komura Shoutaro did not want to argue with Li Sanjie about when Russia would start a war, but it was just an excuse, and he said: "There is an idiom in China called 'soldiers do not tire of deceit,' and perhaps Russia is not completely prepared for war, but if Russia starts war at this time, won't it just catch us off guard? In terms of the art of war, this is called surprise, so we cannot afford not to be unprepared." ”

Li Sanjie nodded, Komura Shoutaro is really an old traitor, although it is said to be strong, but it cannot be said that there is no reason, of course he will not argue with Komura Shoutaro, said: "Our preparations for war are based on the preparation for war in 1905, the ideal time is in the second half of 1905, and before 1905, unless there is conclusive evidence that Russia is going to start a war, we will not take the initiative to provoke a war." ”

In fact, Li Sanjie's answer was also expected by Komura Shoutaro, after all, now the East China Government is recruiting troops on a large scale, and ordering warships in Germany, these things cannot be concealed, so it is not difficult for Japan to deduce the preparation time of the East China Government, and according to the analysis of the Japanese Government, this situation is beneficial to Japan, at the beginning of the war, Japan fought against Russia alone, if it can win, of course, there will be nothing to do with the East China Government, and after the war, of course, Japan will have the huge benefits brought by the war.

And if Japan loses to Russia, or if the war enters a stalemate, the East China government can send troops to fight against Russia, it can save Japan's defeat or break the deadlock, so that although Japan cannot reap the war dividends alone, at least it is the victor's side, and it can not only protect its own interests on the Korean Peninsula, but also reap some other benefits, which is better than a complete defeat.

Of course, some people also believe that if Japan and Russia lose both, overseas Chinese will probably take advantage of the fishermen's profits and clean up the Japanese and Russia together. But some people immediately proposed that once overseas Chinese sent troops to attack Japan, then Japan was fighting against two countries, which constituted a treaty to activate the [Anglo-Japanese Alliance], and Britain must send troops to participate in the war.

Although some people have suggested that when that time comes, Britain may not be able to abide by the treaty and send troops, and that it may sit idly by and watch the East China government, Russia, and Japan fight in a chaotic manner, but this view has not been taken seriously by the Japanese government.

So Komura Shoutaro said: "I fantasize that it is better to fight against Russia sooner rather than later, the longer it is delayed, the stronger the strength that Russia will gather in the Far East, and the more unfavorable it will be to us, and we Japan can launch a war against Russia in the first half of 1904, but I hope that the East China government can give us some support." ”