Chapter 338: Value
There are a number of factors involved in how the Wusan River copper-gold project should be valued.
The first is, of course, the mineable reserves of the Usan copper-gold mine.
The second is the grade of the mine, as well as the geographical and climatic environment of the mining area, which determines the cost of mining, transportation and smelting in addition to the initial project construction investment - a copper-gold mine has no specific development value, which is usually determined by this.
There are many gold resources in Akwa, and the potential reserves are theoretically higher than those of South Africa, but most of the minerals are mined in harsh environments, buried too deep or too low grade, and thus lose their economic development value, and no one intends to make further exploration, let alone organize mining.
The rock gold mine won by Yibogu Mining in the past two years has only begun to have beautiful results after the second wave of fierce rise in international gold prices.
Therefore, the overall valuation of the Wusanghe copper-gold project is inevitably directly related to the current international gold and copper futures prices and the future medium- and long-term trend.
When it comes to the medium- and long-term price trend of futures in the future, this involves the judgment of the medium- and long-term trend of global industrial economic development.
There are too many ways to speak, and each has its own persistence.
Fortunately, the international metal copper and copper concentrate have stabilized at a fairly high historical high, and the international gold price has begun a second wave that looks more violent, and the current international gold price has doubled compared with the low level three years ago, and has been fully adjusted in the middle, which has made the Wusan River copper and gold mine financing negotiations, Cao Mo is in an advantageous position.
When it comes to a stable political and economic environment and the corresponding industrial supporting capacity, Cao Mo is at a disadvantage.
Another disadvantage is that apart from Qian Wenhan and Xinhai Bullion, Cao Mo has no other choice in terms of strategic partners, and even now it is necessary to consider that the board of directors of Xinhai Bullion may eventually veto the cooperation.
If the Wusan River copper and gold mine were placed in China, with a stable political environment, a sustained strong economic growth trend and abundant private capital, not to mention financing at a valuation of US$5 billion, and the valuation would drop to US$3 billion, I don't know how many investment institutions would come to the threshold.
In addition to the need for more industrial and financial capital forces to unite together to fight against the unstable political situation in Akwa, there is another important reason why Cao Mo gave Qian Wenhan and Xinhai Gold such a low financing valuation, which is that the follow-up development and construction of the Wusan River copper-gold mine is too short of funds.
Cao Mo had previously planned and designed the construction of the first phase of the Wusanghe copper-gold mine, a concentrator and corresponding hydropower and other industrial supporting facilities according to the 200,000-ton metal and copper reserves, and for this reason, he did everything possible to invest $150 million in it this year.
Based on the current exploration results, the economic recoverable reserves of the Wusan River copper-gold mine are conservatively estimated at 10 million tons of copper metal and 30 million ounces of gold.
In addition to the scale of the mine and concentrator to increase by forty or fifty times, Drake's industrial supporting capacity is far from supporting the mining of such a large copper-gold mine, and Yibogu Mining needs to spend a lot of money on the construction of large-scale water, electricity, gas, communication and other supporting facilities, and needs to recruit as many as tens of thousands of occupations, and the vocational dormitory area is enough to form a small city.
What's more, the railway to Port Pemei via Drake is a narrow gauge left over from the colonial time of Akva, and the capacity has been almost squeezed by the mineral transportation of Kruno and Mamba.
In the past, the Wusan River copper-gold mine was designed and constructed according to the medium-sized mine, and it was not a big problem to squeeze out 780,000 tons of transportation capacity from this railway line every year, but if the Wusan River copper-gold mine really entered the mining stability period, the copper essence that needs to go to sea through the port of Peimei every year will be as high as 3 to 4 million tons.
Such a huge capacity demand would almost require a separate narrow-gauge railway, which would also involve upgrading the berths at the port of Pemei to accommodate the berths of ultra-large placer vessels.
The Wusan River copper-gold mine needs to be built to an economic mining scale during the mining concession period, and the amount of money required is both gratifying and painful.
Except for the duration of the mining license, no country can allow a private company to cling to a huge treasure without exploiting it.
And if Cao Mo can raise a huge amount of money to develop the Wusan River copper-gold mine on a large scale, even if there will be quite a lot of pretenders at home and abroad in Akwa, and there will be quite a lot of open guns and hidden arrows, as far as the country as a whole, especially when Akwa itself is not capable of development, it will not mind which foreign company will take over the development rights.
Not to mention the large number of jobs created and the ability to support the development of local industries, Akwa will be relented even if it imposes a special tax on mineral resources - as for how the money will be distributed between the central government and the local government in Akwa, it will depend on how the central government and regional powers will be elected by Akwa.
If Qian Wenhan and Xinhai Gold can inject 200 million US dollars this time, they can only increase the annual mining scale of copper concentrate to 300,000 tons, which is only equivalent to 12/12 of Cao Mo's estimated economic mining scale.
However, this step cannot be saved.
With this financing, Qian Wenhan will be completely tied to them, and Xinhai Gold will also reach a deep strategic cooperation, and the construction of the Wusanghe Copper and Gold Mine will reach an annual mining capacity of 300,000 tons of copper concentrate next year, which will also further consolidate and promote the status of Yibogu Mining in Akwa and the whole of West Africa, improve the hematopoietic capacity of Yibogu Mining, and lay a solid foundation for the next step of financing.
Of course, Cao Mo also knew very well that Qian Wenhan and Zhou Shenhe accepted his offer in their hearts.
When Cao Mo returned to China in early summer, Qian Wenhan took the initiative to contact and intended to talk about cooperation, but he did not immediately talk about the cooperation of the Wusan River copper-gold mine project, but first talked about the cooperation between the shipping of the Inner Gulf of Guinea and the exploration operation of the Wusan River copper-gold mine.
In June or July, there was no way to talk about it.
If Cao Mo had set a base valuation of US$1.5 billion for the Wusanghe copper-gold mine project from the beginning to accept financing, Qian Wenhan and Zhou Shenhe would probably have decided that he was too greedy and had a gap in his mind, and even some other cooperation would have become perfunctory.
After five or six months, the management of Qian Wenhan, Zhou Shenhe and Xinhai Gold not only have a deeper understanding of the Wusanghe copper and gold mine, but also have the actual operation data and the corresponding geological and mineral theory support, and they also have a deeper understanding of the industrial layout of Yibogu Mining and Tianyue in Akwa and the chess pieces that extend to the political situation in Akwa.
The latter is more directly related to Tianyue's ability to master the Wusanghe copper-gold mine project.
Without the ability to grasp it, with just a piece of paper that can be torn up at any time, the value of the Usan copper-gold mine will be greatly reduced, no matter how high. Now, Cao Mo has valued the Wusanghe copper-gold mine project at $1.5 billion and used it as a basis to receive financing, and if Qian Wenhan and Zhou Shenhe still think it is high, it is that they are not greedy enough.
Of course, Zhou Shenhe had no way to agree on behalf of Xinhai Gold at this time, and he needed to wait for the C2 reserve assessment report to be released, and then combine Xinhai Gold's political and economic investigation of Akwa and a comprehensive assessment of the industrial supporting capacity of the Drake area during this time, and then take it to the board of directors for discussion, and even need to report to the District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission for approval before it can be finalized.
Of course, Qian Wenhan, as the largest natural person shareholder of Xinhai Bullion, and at the same time, Xinhong Investment, which is under his personal name, invests in the Wusanghe copper-gold mine project at the corresponding price, and it is much easier for Xinhai Bullion.
Although Qian Wenhan is only an ordinary director of Xinhai Bullion, he has great influence on Xinhai Bullion, with his endorsement, and Zhou Shenhe vigorously promotes it, what reason do other directors have to object?
Of course, with such a large investment, Qian Wenhan also needs time to weigh it.
"I will ask Kabuja to hand over all the exploration data to the Xinhai Gold Geology and Mineral Exploration Institute tomorrow, and entrust the C2 reserve evaluation to Xinhai Gold," Cao Mo didn't want to give Qian Wenhan too much time, and said, "I spent New Year's Day in Xinhai, and then I will go back to Akwa, and when I return to Akwa, I won't recognize this price......
"In less than a week, the C2 reserve assessment report may not be made, you are too anxious. Qian Wenhan patted his head and said.
"I just want to find an opportunity to increase the price, and it depends on whether the money will give me this opportunity. Cao Mo smiled.
"Xinhong makes decisions quickly, but no matter how fast Xinhai Gold is, it is impossible to give you a clear answer, and it has not been able to convene a board of directors to discuss this matter. Qian Wenhan said.
"Mr. Zhou, I will relax the offer period for two months," Cao Mo said, "Whether Xinhai Gold will eventually wade into this troubled water depends on the money, and I am short of money, so I can only rush you to make a decision as soon as possible." ”
"If I make a decision now, can I get a little more discount?" Qian Wenhan asked.
"Mr. Qian, are you still short of these three melons and two dates?" Cao Mo said, "Mr. Qian must want to take advantage of more, it's not impossible - I left a certain share of options for the management of Yibogu Mining, if Mr. Qian is willing to be the vice president of Yibogu Mining, he can take away a one-point option, and the price is half lower than that given to Xinhong and Xinhai Gold!"
Strategic financing is in the hope of obtaining cooperative resources, while granting the management the right to buy the company's shares at a certain price within a certain period of time is in the hope that the management will work hard, and the pricing standards are of course different.
In terms of overall valuation, Ibogu Mining has reached US$2 billion, but the option exercise price of the next stage of management is calculated based on the valuation of US$1 billion.
"I've been idle for several years, I can't afford this busy life, I can't take advantage of this cheapness, it's a pity," Qian Wenhan said with regret, "Lao Xie has been running around Africa, and he is dealing with gold mines and gold trade, but he can be the vice president of Yibogu Mining......
"I don't know if Lao Xie is willing to do this - if Lao Xie is willing, I can cut 1% of the shares to him. Cao Mo said.
Xie Sipeng was stunned when he saw Qian Wenhan and Cao Mo suddenly turn the conversation to him......