Chapter 354: White Sugar Futures Genius (3/4)
Latin America is so far away that it used to take two days on a plane from China. But it's so rich!
As one of the regions with the most potential and vitality for agricultural development in the world, Latin America accounts for 1/3 of the world's total freshwater resources, with more than 700 million hectares of arable land and more than 500 million hectares of uncultivated area.
Thanks to the subprime mortgage crisis, Santelisa, Brazil's second-largest sugar and ethanol producer, was in debt crisis but refused to be acquired, so the investment in Jiagu International was an instant hit.
After acquiring an 18 percent stake in Santelisa Group at a low price, Jiagu International did not interfere with its operations – although Jiagu International's ultimate goal was to swallow the company.
A huge problem is the lack of a corresponding foreign-related agricultural talent pool of Jiagu International.
In addition to the quality that the general enterprise management personnel should have, they should master foreign languages, understand international rules and practices, and especially should be familiar with the industrial policies, tax policies, market potential, labor quality, customs and habits related to the business projects in the target country.
English-speaking countries are better to say, more or less a talent pool. But in Latin American countries, Jiagu is numb. So even if there is a chance to swallow the Santelisa Group now, Kaya will let it go.
In addition to this, Wang Yuye also mentioned another problem.
"If we can successfully acquire the Santelisa Group, then we will have a considerable share of the world sugar market, but the price of the world sugar market is very volatile, and our group must have corresponding measures to avoid risks and transfer risks. ”
Sugar has always been a special agricultural product of national concern, and among the 15 agricultural and sideline products on the world market, sugar is the commodity with the most price fluctuations.
This is determined by supply and demand in the world sugar market. In the international trade of sugar, bilateral agreements are generally adopted to stabilize trade relations, resulting in a situation in which the sugar commodity rate is high but the free trade volume is small. Therefore, when demand increases or decreases, the price of sugar will skyrocket and plummet in the short term, so the price of sugar is unpredictable.
Qi Zheng was stunned for a moment and asked, "You mean, sugar futures hedging?"
Wang Yuye nodded: "That's right, although we have established a soybean futures hedging department, but there is still a blank in sugar futures, so we must reserve relevant talents, right?"
This also makes sense, not that if you are familiar with soybean futures, you must be familiar with sugar futures, most people still focus on researching a commodity futures, and those who can take into account a variety of commodity futures at the same time are all talented and unavoidable.
Qi Zheng thought for a while and smiled: "In this way, I will recommend someone to you, it should be quite suitable." ”
......
Chen Jianping was worried.
His experience is quite bizarre.
Compared with most people engaged in futures trading, Chen Jianping has many differences: at the beginning, he did not study finance, economics, risk control and other futures-related majors, according to his own plan, doing scientific research is the "right way" in the future, as for the final choice of futures, it is completely halfway home.
In 99, he graduated from Huanong, and his first job after graduation was to do research and development of new varieties at the Yangcheng Sugarcane Sugar Industry Research Institute.
Later, through hard work, he was admitted to the School of Economics and Management of Qingdao University to study international business administration. During the two years of studying, due to his major, many of his classmates were studying finance, and he gradually came into contact with futures.
It is said that the conversation was like this.
One day, a classmate said to Chen Jianping: "Old Chen, you don't need to change your career, you are older, there is one thing that may be suitable for you for a lifetime." ”
"What is it?" he asked.
"Futures!"
"But I don't even know stocks, how do I look at futures?"
"You can take a look first, I suggest you take a look. ”
It was such a wonderful conversation, he Chen began to read some futures-related books in his spare time, until graduation, although he has not made investments during this period, he has a systematic understanding of the concept and operation of futures.
But genius is what makes the difference.
After graduating, Chen Jianping came to work at the China headquarters of British Sugar (the world's second largest sugar producing group) as a staff officer for his boss.
Because it is probably related to sugar, Chen Jianping has never been a commodity in the study of futures.
For the trading of sugar, it seems simple, but there is a lot of knowledge in it. For example, to formulate an annual trading plan for sugar, it is generally necessary to see how much old inventory there is before the start of the new crushing season, how much is the actual output of the new crushing season, what is the consumption of the new crushing season, and what is the expected import volume of the new crushing season?
Chen Jianping has done a thorough study of the factors related to sugar futures. Including the supply and demand of sugar products, price fluctuations, laws and some deep-seated reasons, and also studied various aspects of policies, changes in the global market.
Of course, there is no actual investment and it is a successful practical operation, and even he himself does not know his own energy.
Until the opportunity arises.
During the subprime mortgage crisis, the price of sugar fell from about 3,300 yuan to 2,700 yuan, and British sugar lost a lot.
Chen Jianping was commissioned to study the price trend of the domestic sugar industry in the coming year.
Then he came to Gui Province, the main sugarcane producing area in China, and ran the entire sugarcane area from south to north after a week.
He found that 90% of the sugarcane fields here are still planted with Xintai Sugar No. 22, a variety introduced by his team back then, according to his words: "This variety is equivalent to half of my son, and I know it too well." ”
While others are still counting how many sugarcane trees there are per mu, how tall and thick, and then calculating the yield per mu, Chen Jianping only needs to walk horizontally and vertically in the field to estimate the yield.
It took him half an hour to estimate the output of 7.67 million tons in the coming year using a small model.
In fact, before this, the market generally believed that the supply of Gui Province in the coming year should be 8.8 million ~ 9.2 million tons, Chen Jianping's estimate is quite different, although he is a little apprehensive, because after all, it is the first time to make a speculation, but after so many years of contact with sugarcane, he still chooses to believe in his own figures.
When he returned, he handed over to his boss a report based on the field trip. After that, the boss summoned the company's eight senior managers to predict the price for the whole year. The lowest forecast is 2,400 yuan, and the highest is Chen Jianping's 4,300 yuan - no one will believe that in the market that has just experienced a financial crisis, sugar will rise sharply.
To be honest, although Chen Jianping insisted on his own point of view, he was not confident in the face of the market's diametrically opposed judgment.
At this time, he received an invitation to join Jiagu International.
"Is it Jiagu International, which acquired CSR Sugar, and which Jiagu International, which cooperated with the American Assassin Hedge Fund?" Chen Jianping was in disbelief in the face of the Jiagu employees who came to invite.
"Yes, we are sincere......"
"Okay! I agree to join!" Chen Jianping replied excitedly, interrupting the visitor's words.
"Uh......" wants to talk about "Super Agricultural Power" with more like-minded people, and WeChat pays attention to "excellent reading literature", chatting about life and finding confidants~