White House, Oval Office.

US President Theodore Roosevelt sat behind a large desk, his whole body leaning back on the back of the office chair. On his desk is a transcript of a telegram sent back to the United States by the U.S. Consulate in Qingdao.

On the couch and chair at Roosevelt's desk sat Vice President Charles W. Fairbanks, Secretary of State Elihue Rout, and Secretary of War William Howard Taft.

Roosevelt pointed to the transcript of the telegram and said: "The East China government has expressed its willingness to accept our mediation and hold peace talks with Russia and Japan, what do you think?"

Fairbanks said: "Although the East China government is willing to accept our mediation, the conditions they have offered are too much. ”

Root shook his head and said, "Charles, I don't think the conditions of the East China government are excessive, because they are the victors in this war, and it is normal for the victors to ask for compensation from the losers, and this is not excessive." ”

Fairbanks said: "But I think Russia, It is impossible for Japan and Japan to accept this condition, and a serious social crisis has already occurred in Russia, and it is necessary to maintain a hard-line attitude toward the outside world in order to maintain the authority of the government; if the Russian Government chooses to compromise, it will inevitably trigger an even greater social crisis, and it will even be difficult for the government to maintain itself; while Japan has not had a social crisis, its domestic economy is already on the verge of collapse, and if the East China Government is asked to pay a large amount of reparations, the economic crisis will inevitably turn into a social crisis, and the Japanese Government will be in danger of fallingIt is impossible for Japan and Japan to negotiate with the East China government on the premise of reparations, and I suggest that pressure should be put on the East China government to give up the conditions for reparations. ”

Roosevelt was silent for a moment before he said, "Elihu, what do you think?" ”

Root said: "I agree with Charles's statement, Russia, Both Japan and Japan have sufficient reasons to refuse to pay reparations to the East China government, but please do not forget that the East China government also has reasons to insist on receiving compensation, and they have also paid a huge price for this war, and have sold bonds worth a total of 60 million pounds in the United States and Germany, and their annual financial income is less than 10 million pounds. ”

Roosevelt couldn't help laughing and said: "This is a bit difficult, and the three parties have their own reasons for demanding or refusing to pay compensation, so what can we do? Is it so difficult that this mediation will not be successful?"

"Of course not, although the three parties have their own reasons, but in the final analysis, it depends on the strength of the three parties, or which side is more persistent, and in this regard, I am more optimistic about the East China government." ”

Fairbanks said: "But the war is not completely over yet, the Russian army still occupies Shenyang, and there are still 300,000 troops; and although Japan has withdrawn from the Far East battlefield, it still has the strength to fight again, and now it has launched an attack on the Yalu River defense line of the People's Army, so it is probably a little early to say that the East China government has won the war." ”

Roosevelt frowned, turned his head and said, "William, do you think Russia and Japan still have a chance on the battlefield?"

Taft shook his head and said, "Your Excellency, I think that Russia, Japan has no chance, although the Russian army still occupies Shenyang, but there is only this lonely city, there is no support and supplement, the reason why the People's Army has not attacked Shenyang now, is mainly because it does not want to consume its own troops, and wants to use the 300,000 Russian troops as their bargaining chips; and Japan is the same, the KPA Navy has cut off the Korean Peninsula and Japan itself, and the Japanese army has also not made up for it, so the Japanese attack has no follow-up force, and up to now, the Japanese attack has been launched for 10 days, but it still has not been able to break through the KPA defense line, which shows that the Japanese attack does not pose much threat to the KPA, I think in a few days, Japan will mainly withdraw its troops or the East China government will launch a counterattack. At this time, unless the KPA itself makes a major mistake, Russia and Japan will not have any chance, and judging from the performance of the KPA after entering the war, it will be very difficult to wait for them to make such a mistake. ”

Roosevelt said thoughtfully: "So Japan and Russia can only accept the conditions of the East China government?"

Root nodded and said, "Otherwise they will lose more." ”

Fairbanks said: "There is still a way, we can put pressure on the East China government to get them to give up the compensation." ”

Root looked at Fairbanks and said with a solemn face: "Charles, is this to make the United States give up its notarized position in this mediation?"

Fairbanks said: "If it is for the national interest of the United States, any position is fine. ”

Roosevelt said slowly: "Charles, what is in the interest of us in the United States to give up the notarized position to help Russia and Japan." ”

Fairbanks said: "President, let's first look at what the East China government has gained on the battlefield, they will gain the vast territory of Northeast China, and they will take away the last Russian port in the Far East. Vladivostok, and at the same time the possibility of expanding their power into the Korean Peninsula, and before that, they had forced the Chun State to formally recognize them as an independent regime, and also gained the territory and population of Henan Province, so that only the gains from the battlefield, the East China government would be a huge political body with a territory of more than 1 million square kilometers and a population of 60 million to 70 million, and if they received compensation, they would not only be able to pay off their foreign debts immediately, but also receive a large amount of development funds. However, Russia has not only lost all its interests in China's northeast region, but also lost all its interests in Vladivostok, and has completely lost its foothold in the Far East, and it will be almost difficult to have an impact on the situation in the Far East in the future, and Japan has already suffered huge losses in this battle, and if it still has to compensate the East China Government, it will be difficult to restore its national strength within 10 years, so there will be a situation in the Far East in which the East China Government is dominant, without any containment, and the United States has major interests in the Asian region, which is a very unfavorable situation for the United States. ”

Roosevelt pondered for a moment and said, "Then what can we change if we put pressure on the East China government to give up its demand for reparations to Russia and Japan?"

"We can slow down the development of the East China government," Fairbanks said. If the indemnity is not obtained, then the East China government will have to use most of its fiscal revenue to pay the principal and interest of the bonds in the next few years, so that there will be no funds to invest in construction, and the speed of his illusory development will naturally be slowed down, and during this period of time, we can vigorously support Japan, so that Japan can recover its national strength as soon as possible, and can contain the East China government. That's where our interests lie. ”

Roosevelt thought for a moment and said, "Charles, your idea is very good, but I still have a question, that is, have you considered it, what way can we use to put pressure on the East China government to force them to give up their demand for reparations?"

Before Fairbanks could answer, Rout had already said, "President, I don't think there's any other effective way than for us to go to war directly." ”

Roosevelt immediately shook his head and said, "It is absolutely not feasible to directly enter the war, and the people will never agree to it, so we can only adopt non-war means." ”

Rout shrugged his shoulders, spread his hands, and said, "Then there won't be." ”

Fairbanks hesitated for a moment and said, "Is it okay to use economic means? The East China government has issued 30 million pounds of bonds in the United States, and we can ask the East China government to repay it early, or terminate the trade relationship with the East China government, and impose economic sanctions on them." ”

Rutt shook his head again and again: "The bond itself is a commercial act, and it has a fixed term, as long as the East China government pays the interest on time and returns the principal, the government has no right to require the East China government to repay in advance, and the termination of trade with the East China government, and the economic sanctions on them, these are not only harmful to our interests, and it is not enough to make the East China government submit, it will only make the United States set up one more enemy, since our pressure has no effect, then why do this useless work, it is better to take this mediation as an opportunity to strengthen, It is even expanding economic and political relations with the East China government, which is also protecting our interests in Asia. ”

Roosevelt nodded and said, "It is wise to be with the victor and not against it." ”

Fairbanks said, "But ......"

Roosevelt waved his hand and interrupted him: "Charles, I understand your concern, it is indeed not in the interests of the United States to let the East China government dominate the Far East, but as Eli Hugh said, we really have no good way to curb the development of the East China government now, and the economy alone cannot stop the East China government." Moreover, a strong East China government is not only disadvantageous to the United States, but also Britain and France, whose interests in Asia are greater than ours, and because Britain and France support Japan and Russia respectively, and have already had bad relations with the East China government, we and the East China government at least maintain good relations for now, so it should be Britain and France who are in a hurry now, and they will naturally find ways to contain the East China government, and we have no need to come forward to be this 'evil person', although it is good to watch the show. ”

As he was talking, he heard a knock on the door, and Roosevelt's secretary came in and handed Roosevelt a black folder. Roosevelt opened it, smiled, and said, "You see, Britain and France have already taken action, faster than we expected." ”

When Fairbanks, Root, and others were looking at the documents, Roosevelt said to the secretary who had sent the documents: "Thomas, you should immediately inform the embassies in Russia and Japan and send a proposal to their governments to mediate the war." ”