Chapter 197: A Visit to Britain and France (8)
Of course, the defeat in the battle of the Taiwan Strait is only a matter of tactics, and Britain attaches more importance to the strategic missteps of the total annihilation of the expeditionary fleet. And after a group of strategists divided up, two reasons for the strategic misstep were finally derived.
The first is that Britain should not personally participate in the war, or should it be in command behind the scenes and maintain its deterrent. Because the Far East was too far away from the British mainland, it was difficult for Britain to invest too much power in the Far East, so before the Far East War, Britain went all out to support Japan, just to avoid its own participation in the war and maintain a deterrent existence behind it. Even after East China later entered the war and defeated Russia and Japan, Britain did not change its original intention and tried its best to promote the Portsmouth negotiations, but still did not want to take action in person.
But at this time, Britain made a major strategic mistake, in order to prevent East China from being difficult to control after the end of the war, Britain hoped to suppress East China in the Portsmouth negotiations and could not get war reparations, but the result was the failure of the Portsmouth negotiations, the war continued, and at the same time Britain had to come out of the background and go down in person, completely deviating from the original strategy of not personally participating in the war, shaking his fingers behind his back, and maintaining the strategy of deterrence, the consequence was that the Taiwan Strait lost the first war, and completely lost the balance of East China can only watch East China become the strongest political entity in the Far East.
Looking back now, in fact, in the Portsmouth negotiations, East China**, like Russia and Japan, demanded only 50 million pounds in war reparations, even if this reparation was paid, the losses suffered by Russia and Japan were only 50 million pounds. The benefits obtained are also much smaller than later, except for the loss of more than half of the indemnity, Russia only lost the Vladivostok region, but it can keep more than 500,000 square kilometers of land in the Ussuri River basin and the Amur River basin, and still maintain considerable influence in the Far East; while Japan's mainland will not be attacked by East China, it will be able to recover its vitality in two or three years at most, and at the same time, it is impossible for East China to get Kalimantan Island, and even the Shanghai concession can be preserved, and its advantage is greatly reduced compared to what it is now.
As long as Britain promotes the union of Russia and Japan after the end of the war, and has the support of Britain and France behind it, it is enough to suppress East China in the Far East, and at least it can form a full momentum, and Russia and Japan must rely on Britain and France to counter East China, so that the [Quadruple Alliance] will be firmly united by common interests.
In fact, this conclusion is somewhat hindsighted, when Bi Jing decided to participate in the war, Britain can be said to be full of confidence, thinking that as long as the expeditionary fleet arrives in the Far East, even if it cannot completely defeat East China, after all, the expeditionary force does not have a strong army, can not go ashore to fight, but it is enough to be able to reverse the situation in the Far East, because a strong navy can completely suppress the naval power of East China, and after losing the sea power, East China It also had to give in and give up the demand for war reparations, so that Britain's goal would be achieved, and this entry into the war would be a model of success.
Of course, Britain's confidence at that time was not completely unreasonable, and the expeditionary fleet had a total of 25 battleships and 15 armored cruisers. But it is unbelievable or unbelievable, but the result is that the expeditionary fleet is almost completely wiped out, which shows that Britain does not have enough knowledge and understanding of East China, and there is a serious misjudgment of the strength of East China.
This is also the second strategic blunder made by Britain, and it can be said that this one strategic blunder is more serious than the first, because if Britain can accurately judge the strength of East China, it will not easily enter the war. Therefore, after the end of the war in the Far East, the British cabinet ordered the establishment of an intelligence collection and analysis agency in the Ministry of State Security specifically aimed at China, and listed China's intelligence as the highest level, along with Germany, France, and the United States.
Although after the defeat in the Far East War, Britain's influence in China was greatly reduced, but after all, it has been operating in China for many years and still has considerable influence, so in just a few months, a large amount of information about East China has been collected, and after the research and analysis of intelligence officers, Britain has found that its perception of East China is indeed very biased.
It turns out that Britain only thinks that East China is a political group with strong armed forces and a certain amount of modern science and technology, but it is not much different from the Qing court in essence, but from the information collected, East China's style is pragmatic, and the officials have strong management skills, and every time they act, they will formulate detailed plans, plan and then act, and the execution is also very strong, so they will basically succeed, and at the same time attach great importance to safeguarding national interests. The war in the Far East was planned and prepared at least four or five years in advance, and it was by no means a temporary decision. And this style of acting, coupled with the backing of the powerful force of the right, is the kind of opponent that makes people's heads ache.
And dealing with such an opponent, intimidation and flickering are useless, you can only honestly exchange interests, of course, judging from the information you have obtained, Hua ** obviously likes this model. Although such a deal, Britain also has to honestly take out interests to trade, but it is better than countries that do not enter oil and salt, after all, as long as it can be traded, it proves that it can be negotiated, and it only depends on the size of the interests.
At this time, Xu Jichao smiled and said: "I don't deny that the national strength of Britain and France is indeed stronger than that of Germany, but this does not necessarily mean that Britain and France can bring us more benefits." ”
Asquith said: "That may not be, everything can be discussed." What's more, our Britain and France still have some influence in China, and can give East China some benefits that Germany cannot give, for example, now there are two countries in China, and sooner or later there will be a conflict, or even a war, but we can remain neutral, or it is not impossible to help East China, which Germany cannot do. ”
Xu Jichao sneered in his heart, the British are more cunning than France, and they want to exchange their support for the reunification of East China in exchange for East China's alienation from Germany, but they are generous to others, and they actually didn't spend a penny, but although they thought well, they didn't work here, so he said: " We have never pinned our hopes for national reunification on the basis of foreign support, not to mention that Britain should also consider clearly that the general trend of the world will prosper if it goes along with it, and those who go against it will perish, and the demise of the Qing court is the trend of the times, and it is not something that can be reversed by any human force, and whether Britain intends to go with the sky or go against the sky!"
Asquiskan laughed twice and said: "I'm just giving an example, just to show that Britain and France can give some benefits to East China, which Germany can't give, this is a fact." But those interests are those interests, and we can negotiate slowly until we are satisfied with both parties. ”
Xu Jichao was silent for a while, nodded, and said: "I have understood the meaning of the British side, and after this visit is over, I will report to the domestic Executive Yuan." ”
Asquith smiled and said, "Very good, I'm waiting for a response from Huadong**." ”
Xu Jichao's visit to the UK is 1 week, one day longer than France, and the content of the visit is similar to that of France.
When Xu Jichao returned to Germany, except for the design of warships, other activities were basically over, and Li Sanjie also ended his visit to the Ottoman Empire. So Xu Jichao and German Prime Minister Bilow had the last meeting of this visit to Germany, mainly to explain the content of the itinerary of the visit to Britain and France to the German side, of course, some contents, such as the British side hopes to exchange interests with East China, did not say, this is an agreement between the two sides, on the other hand, it is also to reassure Germany.
Bi Luo proposed to Xu Jichao that the two sides establish a fixed mutual visit mechanism, which will be carried out once a year, and the two sides will take turns to visit and travel, this year it will be East China's first visit to Germany, and next year's German will be Germany's turn to visit East China**. Germany is not completely assured, the exchanges between Bijing countries are based on interests, and although Germany can bring a lot of benefits to East China, Britain and France can also do the same, and the national strength of Britain and France is indeed above Germany, so if Britain and France really pull East China at all costs, Germany is really unable to compete with Britain and France.
Of course, the exchange of interests is also based on mutual trust between countries, and it is impossible for a country that lacks trust to exchange a large number of interests, and Bi Jing has to guard against the other side's hand, in case he eats it and does not recognize it? At the level of mutual trust, Germany has been far ahead of Britain and France, after all, Germany has always maintained good relations with East China, and this has little to do with national strength, so Germany believes that it should further strengthen its relationship with East China , then it is certainly a good idea to suggest a fixed mutual visit mechanism.
After communicating with China, Xu Jichao accepted Germany's proposal and agreed to establish a fixed mutual visit mechanism with Germany. The German side was also very satisfied, and the visit came to a successful conclusion.
So on February 20, the visiting delegates from East China left Germany and returned by boat.
On the one hand, it has further strengthened relations with Germany, formed mutual assistance with Germany, allowed Germany to obtain a large amount of military technology, and enhanced Germany's strength; on the other hand, it has improved relations with Britain and France, so although there are still many conflicts of interest and competition between East China and Britain and France, they have always remained within a certain range and there has been no more war.