Chapter 61: The Anglo-Japanese Alliance (1)
Just when Zhan Tianyou and the students boarded the ship and headed for Qingdao. The principal heads of the East China government are gathering to discuss the matter of dealing with the Anglo-Japanese alliance.
Of course, the signing of the Anglo-Japanese alliance was not a whim or a flash of inspiration for the two countries, but the result of careful consideration and serious assessment of the gains and losses of the interests of both countries.
And the first to consider the Anglo-Japanese alliance was the United Kingdom. As early as the beginning of 1901, Britain was mired in the Boer War in South Africa, and on the other hand, the situation in China was reversed by the arrival of the crossers, so Britain felt an urgent need to support an agent in the Far East, not only to contain Russian expansion in the Far East, but also to prevent the rise of overseas Chinese. And that agent is Japan.
In fact, Britain's support for Japan began as early as the First Sino-Japanese War, and the Yoshino, the main warship of the Japanese Navy in the First Sino-Japanese War, was purchased from Britain, and before the First Sino-Japanese War, Japan ordered two 12,000-ton battleships from Britain to deal with the Dingyuan and Zhenyuan ships of the Beiyang Naval Division.
However, this was only a general support, and it was far from a true alliance, but by May 1901 the situation in China was irreversible, and Britain had made a comprehensive assessment of its alliance with Japan, including the Traversers.
Japan's assessment is that in the Far East, there is a great chance of a conflict between Japan and Russia, and without the full support of Britain, Japan will not be able to defeat the alliance of Russia and France, and Germany is also very likely to intervene in it, so that the situation of the three countries interfering in the war will be repeated, and Britain will face Germany, Russia, and Russia in the Far East. If Britain and Japan join forces to fight against Russia and France, even if they win, they will inevitably become feuding with Russia and France, and will fall into greater attrition than the Boer War, thus losing their position as the world hegemon; therefore, the best plan for Britain is to form some form of alliance with Japan, so as to prevent France from intervening in the war, so that the war will only occur between Russia and Japan, and then use all non-war means to support Japan's victory over Russia.
Since Russia is a land and naval power with infinitely rich natural resources and a large population, even if it fails, it will reorganize itself and compete in strength in the future. This would prevent Japan and Russia from reaching a reconciliation, and this situation would be beneficial to Britain, on the one hand, it would contain Russia's power in the Far East and reduce Britain's pressure in Europe and the Middle East, and on the other hand, Japan would have to continue to depend on Britain and help Britain maintain order in the Far East.
Of course, the result of this may be that Russia seeks the support of Germany, but Britain can take the opportunity to pull France, and because Russia has structural contradictions with Austria-Hungary and Italy in the Balkans, it is difficult for Germany and Russia to form a relatively close alliance.
The conclusion of the assessment was that Japan should be fully supported and an alliance with Japan should be formed as soon as possible, and Japan should be tied to the British chariot as a British agent in the Far East.
The assessment of the traversers is that although the emergence of overseas Chinese has changed the course of the war in China, the goal they are pursuing at the present stage is only to gain a foothold in China and develop an area, and they have no intention of changing the overall pattern of China for the time being, and at the same time they are willing to accept the current international order, which will not have a big impact on Britain's interests in China; although Britain has lost Weihaiwei, this is an acceptable loss, because the overseas Chinese have a natural hostile relationship with Russia, which can completely make up for the loss of Weihaiwei, so the overseas Chinese are a force that can be relied on to resist Russia's expansion in the Far East, because it cannot push the overseas Chinese to the side of Russia.
However, in the long run, the overseas Chinese will be a potentially formidable opponent, because judging from all indications, the overseas Chinese are by no means satisfied with occupying only one part of Shandong, and their ultimate goal is to gain political power in the whole of China. And once the overseas Chinese have taken power in the whole of China, since the whole territory is in the Far East, it will likely be a more powerful adversary than Russia, and they will never allow Britain to continue to occupy major economic and commercial interests in China, so this is not a good thing for Britain.
The conclusion of the assessment of the overseas Chinese is that at this stage, it is possible to maintain friendship with the overseas Chinese, and it can cooperate with them in the confrontation with Russia, but it is also necessary to strengthen the defense against the overseas Chinese, and if Britain supports Japan's victory over Russia, then the next target of containment is the overseas Chinese. The rise of the overseas Chinese was also a great threat to Japan, and the Qing government was also threatened by the overseas Chinese, which were all advantageous conditions that Britain could rely on and exploit.
In the spirit of these two assessments, the British government immediately initiated an alliance with Japan. After several attempts, on 15 July 19017, the British Prime Minister, the Marquess of Salisbury, formally proposed to the Japanese Minister to Britain that the British Government was willing to establish an alliance with Japan. On July 31, British Foreign Secretary Langston told Lin Dong that now is the most appropriate time to negotiate a long-term alliance.
Contrary to British estimates, however, Japan did not immediately accept Britain's proposal for an alliance with gratitude, but instead engaged in a major controversy on an unprecedented scale at home. Yamaguchi Aritomo and Katsura Taro, who advocated being tough against Russia, were naturally in favor of immediately forming an alliance with Britain to confront Russia, and even did not hesitate to go to war with Russia; however, Ito Hirobumi, Inoue Shin, and other elders believed that Russia's strength was not comparable to that of the Qing Dynasty, and even with the support of Britain, it would be difficult to predict victory or defeat, and advocated recognizing Russia's sphere of influence in northeastern China in exchange for Russia recognizing Japan's influence on the Korean Peninsula. In this way, the British or overseas Chinese can be pushed to the front line against Russia, and Zisi can hide behind and take advantage of the opportunity.
The two factions were at loggerheads, but at this time, the negotiations in Shanghai were successful, the war in China was completely over, and Ito Hirobumi resigned as prime minister, and Katsura Taro of the Yama Aritomo faction took over as prime minister. At this point, Aritomo Yamaguchi and Hirobumi Ito, the two veterans who led the Meiji Restoration, completely withdrew from the front-line political arena and turned to the power of manipulating Japan behind the scenes. Ito Hirobumi decided to visit Russia in person to make a final effort to salvage relations between the two countries.
However, Ito's visit was not successful, and in St. Petersburg, Ito held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Domsdorf and Finance Minister Witte, both of whom opposed Japan's absolute power in Korea, but at the same time demanded Russia's absolute power in Manchuria, and Domsdorf even threatened Japan with war: if Japan did not agree to this, we would certainly make military sacrifices at sea and on land, and the war might start against us, but it would end in Japan's defeat.
Immediately after the meeting between Domsdorf and Werther, Ito decided to end his visit to Russia and return to China, and supported an alliance between Japan and Britain. Formal negotiations resumed on October 16, 1901, and a treaty of agreement was quickly reached, with the first draft proposed by the British on November 6, the Japanese government passing the Japanese amendment on November 28, and the emperor ratifying it on December 7.
On January 30, 1902, the Japanese representative Lin Dong and the British representative Langston signed the "Anglo-Japanese Alliance Entente" in London, the main contents of the agreement were as follows:
(1) Japan has special interests in China and South Korea and the United Kingdom in China, and will take necessary measures if their respective interests are infringed upon.
(2) In the event that Japan and Britain go to war with a third country in order to protect the above interests, the other country will remain neutral.
(3) In the above cases, if a third country at war enters into an alliance with one or more other countries, Japan and Britain will fight together, and peace will be made in accordance with the agreement between the allies.
(4) Japan and the United Kingdom shall not conclude other treaties that are detrimental to the interests mentioned above.
(5) When the interests of the two countries are endangered, they should inform each other.
(6) The alliance is valid for 5 years. In addition, according to the official documents exchanged at the same time, the two sides agreed that the Japanese and British navies should strengthen cooperation in peacetime and provide convenience to each other in such areas as docking and repairing ships and replenishing coal, and they also made it clear that Japan and Britain would strive to maintain a naval force superior to that of a third country in the waters of the Far East.
There are two channels through which the East China Government received news of the Anglo-Japanese alliance: First, the official note sent by Britain and Japan to the East China Government. The goal of the Anglo-Japanese alliance was to deal with Russian expansion in the Far East, and the East China government was also a companion that Britain and Japan needed to fight for to deal with Russia, after all, the East China government was also a force to be reckoned with in the Far East, at least it could not push the East China government to the side of Russia. Therefore, Britain and Japan formally sent a diplomatic note to the East China Government through the Tianjin Consulate almost at the same time, formally informing the East China Government that Britain and Japan had formed an alliance in response to Russia's expansion in the Far East, and that it was not aimed at other countries, and hoped that the East China Government would not read too much, and both expressed their willingness to strengthen cooperation with the East China Government.
Two days after the East China Government received the diplomatic notes from Britain and Japan, Prince Heinrich of Germany, who remained in Qingdao, received a telegram from Wilhelm II, informing the East China Government of the fact that Britain and Japan had formed an alliance, and saying that the Anglo-Japanese alliance was not only aimed at Russia, but also a huge threat to the East China Government, and that Germany was willing to provide support to the East China Government to deal with Russia, Britain and Japan.
It turned out that after learning of the Anglo-Japanese alliance, Germany immediately evaluated this alliance and came to the conclusion that this alliance was beneficial to Germany, because the biggest goal of German diplomacy was to break up the Russian-French alliance, and the method of doing so was to encourage Russia to set its sights on the Far East, and the establishment of the Anglo-Japanese alliance would undoubtedly create a powerful opponent for Russia in the Far East, and it would inevitably force Russia to invest more forces in the Far East, so that there would be no flawless European affairs, and the Franco-Russian alliance would exist in name only.
If Russia defeats Japan, Britain will be forced to go to the foreground and personally go into battle to confront Russia. Both sides would have to turn to Germany's assistance, because whatever Germany supported would inevitably increase the odds of victory for that side, and Germany would therefore be in a very advantageous diplomatic position, and if Japan defeated Russia, Germany would take the opportunity to come to Russia's aid, break up the Franco-Russian alliance, and even bring Russia back into the Three Emperors' Alliance, which was, in the words of Wilhelm II, that a bear that had bled out of blood was not so terrible that it could even be controlled by its own claws, and it would turn the Tsar into a tamed anti-British tool by pouring a few mouthfuls of diplomatic ecstasy into itγ
As for the East China government, Wilhelm II believed that it could also be used, and Wilhelm II's idea was that Germany could form some kind of alliance with the East China government, and then use the East China government as a springboard to intervene in the competition in the Far East and strive for its own maximum interests in this war. Therefore, Wilhelm II sent a telegram to Heinrich to convey Germany's attitude to the East China government.
Of course, in the old time, Wilhelm II was moody, erratic, and high-eyed, and unreliable whimsy. And this idea, full of unrealistic fantasies, also shows that in this time and space, Wilhelm II has not changed much.