Chapter 599: Borrowing the Situation
The operating conditions of listed companies can directly affect the stock price, and in turn, the stock price can also affect the operation of the listed company to a large extent.
Ningdong Technology is a good example.
Originally, there was no big problem within Ningdong Company, although Wu Hui's steps were a little big, but as long as he survived the difficult period at the beginning, Ningdong would have a pretty good space for development.
But it was because Ningdong's stock price was sniped by Lin Hongsheng, and the stock price plummeted, causing the bank to call for loans, which caused a series of reactions later.
It's like a domino, knocking down the first one, and all the rest are down.
Of course, some companies with low debt ratios and relatively stable main businesses are not too affected by stock price fluctuations.
However, similar to Ningdong, a company with a high debt ratio, especially a company with equity pledge, is greatly affected by stock price fluctuations.
Direct bankruptcy and bankruptcy are possible.
Qin Fei has not yet learned about Longchuang's financial situation, but he knows very well that a real estate company with an aggressive style like Longchuang must have a high debt ratio, and it is also likely to have equity pledges.
In this way, as long as you can successfully snipe the stock price of Longchuang and make the stock price fall by 10% or even 20%, it is equivalent to toppling the first domino for Longchuang.
As for how much will be poured next, it depends on Longchuang's response measures.
But at least it is certain that Longchuang should not have the energy to engage in scenic projects.
It's just that it's not easy to snipe at Longchuang's stock price.
Lin Hongsheng was able to successfully snipe Ningdong's stock price just by relying on a research report and a few gossip, but the same trick was useless to Longchuang.
Longchuang's market value is more than 150 billion, while Ningdong's market value is only 78 billion, a difference of nearly 20 times!
It's like the difference between a small fishing boat and a big cruise ship.
Take a chisel, sneak into the water, and keep chiseling and chiseling, it is possible to scuttle a small fishing boat, but it is absolutely impossible to scuttle a large cruise ship.
To put it bluntly, just by relying on this kind of unsightly means, there is no way to snipe at Longchuang's stock price.
If you want to snipe at Longchuang's stock price, you can only make a clear move, a dark move, a strange move, and all kinds of tricks have to be used.
This is a battle in which the enemy is strong and we are weak, and there is a huge disparity in strength.
Perhaps Chen Wei's only advantage is that Xu Tianyin didn't expect that they would attack Longchuang's stock price.
After all, in Xu Tianyin's view, Tianrun is just a little-known small investment company, and it hasn't even gotten a private placement license yet, so how much strength can it have?
A small investment company dares to snipe at Longchuang's stock price, isn't that a mayfly shaking a tree?
If Chen Wei and the others can make good use of this advantage, they may be able to catch Xu Tianyin off guard.
"If we directly short Longchuang in the Hong Kong stock market, how much capital will we need to bring down Longchuang's stock price?" Chen Wei asked Qin Fei.
In the Hong Kong stock market, shorting is not as limited as the domestic market, Chen Wei can directly short Longchuang in the Hong Kong stock market.
That's a small advantage.
However, with the size of Longchuang, if you want to really bring down the stock price, the amount of money needed should not be small.
"I'll take a look at ...... first," Qin Fei said, and then Chen Wei heard the sound of tapping on the keyboard on the phone, obviously Qin Fei was there to check Longchuang's stock.
After a while, Qin Fei said: "Judging from the current situation, there are two or three hundred million funds, which can almost bring down Longchuang's stock price." ”
"So?" Chen Wei was a little surprised.
He can't see the stock price trend of Longchuang at this time, and he doesn't know the situation very well, but Longchuang, a company with a market value of more than 100 billion, if it can knock down the stock price with only two or three hundred million, it is incredible, right?
"From the monthly point of view, Longchuang's share price has just taken a standard three-wave upward pattern from its listing to the present, and it is now at the bottom of the third wave of downward adjustment, supported by the moving average. The trading volume has also shrunk sharply, with less than a billion dollars per day, and only more than 300 million points last Friday. So we only need two or three hundred million funds to break the stock price above the moving average. But the problem is that after breaking the moving average, the stock price will definitely have a rebound, and if we want to suppress this rebound, it will not be easy. Qin Fei explained to Chen Wei.
Chen Wei's mind almost came up with the stock trend of Longchuang.
After thinking about it, he said, "So, the current time to short is actually not too good, is it?"
At this time, Longchuang's stock price has come down from the high, and it has been consolidating here at the moving average for a period of time, and technically speaking, there is a certain demand for a rebound, and now it will start shorting, that is, contrarian operation.
What's more, once they break the stock price below the moving average, the major shareholders of Longchuang will definitely go out of the market, as long as the stock price is pushed back above the moving average, it will be a broken and then standing pattern, and it is likely to rebound in one go.
Chen Wei: If they want to suppress the stock price from the market, it is almost impossible, and it will take at least tens of billions of funds.
"Yes, start shorting now, we are the losing party, wait for a month or two, Longchuang's stock price rebounded, and the rebound momentum has been exhausted, when we start to go down, we will short, it will become the winning party, at that time, even if the major shareholders of Longchuang want to buck the trend to save the market, it is not so easy. Qin Fei said.
Chen Wei frowned slightly: "In a month or two, I'm afraid it's too late." ”
If you want Longchuang to withdraw from the bidding, you must make Longchuang have a crisis before the bidding.
Even if they succeed in suppressing the stock price of Longchuang and toppling the first domino, the follow-up reaction will take time.
This time will take at least half a month or even a month.
That is to say, on their side, they have to push down Longchuang's stock price before mid-May.
In the process of suppressing the stock price, the major shareholders of Longchuang will definitely have the behavior of holding the market, and it is impossible to let the stock price plummet.
The two sides are likely to engage in a tug-of-war.
This time will take half a month or even a month, or even longer.
Today is March 22nd, which means that they have to do it within a month.
If it's too late, it'll be too late.
"Under normal circumstances, it does take a month or two to complete this wave of Longchuang's rebound market, but we can give him a push in the middle to speed up this rebound process. Qin Fei said.
When Chen Wei heard this, his eyes immediately lit up: "You mean, before we go short, we will first go long Longchuang and take the initiative to help him pull up the stock price?"