Syllable!

Shen Jiannan snapped his fingers, causing the eyes of the audience to pay attention to him.

"Mary. Let's talk about the recent liquidity of capital in the UK market. ”

"Yes, boss. ”

“......”

“......”

From 1982 to 1989, the British market was in a typical state of excess capital, showing that the liquidity represented by M3 and the price of real estate and stock prices as assets rose much faster than the growth rate of GDP and CPI, real estate prices rose by 16 percent in a row, and the stock market rose by 32 percent.

In 1986, the EM indicator of excess money was as high as 16 percent, which was unusually higher than 1.6 percent in 1985, and in 1987, the EM indicator reached a historic high of 80 percent.

In terms of interest rates, in 1985, the privatization reform process led to a short-term growth of the British economy, the CPI index also reached 6.1 percent, and the Bank of England raised the overnight lending rate to 12.5 percent, but after inflation fell to 5 percent, the short-term lending rate fell from 10 percent to 9.5 percent.

In 1988, perhaps due to the crisis caused by the high level of speculation in the conscious market and the flood of money, the Bank of England raised interest rates again, raising the overnight rate to 13.5 per cent in 1989 and 14.7 per cent in 1990.

All present were experienced elites in the market, and even William had made up for the relevant knowledge, so he couldn't understand the meaning of Shen Jiannan and Mary's questions and answers.

The pound sterling is seriously over-issued, and it is precisely because of the large number of over-issuance of currencies that the stock market and the real estate market continue to rise.

The relationship between supply and demand determines the price factor, the excess circulation of the pound is huge, and the corresponding depreciation pressure exists, if you want to maintain the price of the pound, you need to raise interest rates to shrink the market circulation of the pound.

However, due to the privatization reform, the British economy is mostly affected by the European Community and the North American market, and with the economic crisis in Finland, Iceland and other northern Europe, the British export industry has been greatly affected, the unemployment rate remains high, and interest rate cuts are very much needed to stimulate inflation.

Soon, Mary's story came to an end, and the huge conference room fell silent.

Obviously, the purpose of his boss is to short the pound.

The idea is terrifying.

The sun never sets on how powerful the empire is, once ruled almost half the world, although the current Britain is no longer in its glory, but the emaciated camel is bigger than the horse, and the rotten broken ship still has a few pounds of nails.

If you want to short the pound with the strength of First Capital, this is not an egg hitting a stone, but a mouse wants to bite an elephant to death, and it is simply looking for death.

Grunt!

Andy Smith swallowed, trying to say something but not having a good time to say.

Shorting a country's currency is tantamount to challenging the authority of a country, and the United Kingdom is a member of the European Community, and if it wants to short the British pound, it is challenging the behemoth of the European Community.

MI5 and MI6 are not for white rice, God knows what kind of trouble it will cause.

If you succeed, you don't have good fruit to eat, and if you fail, you lose your own money.

"Smith. If you have any ideas, don't be inhibited. ”

Andy Smith couldn't help but straighten his back and spoke very seriously.

"Boss. IMHO, short the pound, this is a very stupid idea. Although there is a loophole in the EC's exchange rate mechanism, and the current Britain is no longer in its former glory, the Bank of England has foreign exchange reserves of $24 billion, and no one can shake such a Britain.

Even if we find the weakness of the UK, there is nothing we can do.

The emaciated camel is bigger than the horse, and for success or failure, this is a country with complete sovereignty, and if we provoke it, we simply cannot afford that kind of consequences. ”

Consequence?

Shen Jiannan raised his eyebrows, stood up, walked behind Andy Smith, and slapped him on the shoulder with a palm.

"Andy. Consequences, don't worry. You're right, emaciated camels are bigger than horses, so don't worry at all. Now, we're talking about the market. Capital determines the price, and how much money do you think we need to prepare to make money. ”

Andy Smith frowned, but soon, he let go of unnecessary thoughts, his identity, just an investment manager, and no need to think about anything outside the market.

"Boss. According to the EC Exchange Rate Mechanism, central banks are responsible for market intervention when the exchange rate reaches the lower band of the float. ”

"That's right. They do not manipulate forex prices, but only intervene in the market. ”

Andy Smith was stunned, not knowing why Shen Jiannan's tone was suddenly sarcastic.

Shen Jiannan didn't explain, and patted him on the shoulder, which was suitable for him to continue.

"If the exchange rate price breaks through the lower band of volatility, the central banks of member countries must intervene in the market, which will be the main logic for us to make money. Otherwise, no matter how much money we invest, we will lose nothing, just like those fools who shorted the ruble.

But that's also our limitation.

As one of the members of the European Community, if the pound is hit hard, Deutsche Bank will not sit idly by, and Britain itself has more than 20 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves, not to mention, Britain is also a member of the IMF, and if necessary, it can also borrow a large amount of money from the IMF.

We don't have any chance of winning.

Secondly, at present, not only the United Kingdom needs to cut interest rates to stimulate inflation, Italy, Luxembourg and other countries also need to stimulate inflation, all member countries, except Germany, need to implement lower interest rates, or even cut interest rates, I think, Deutsche Bank, must not withstand the pressure from major member countries, if Deutsche Bank lowers the benchmark interest rate, then all the Wall Street consortiums will only lose a mess. ”

Shen Jiannan nodded, patted Andy Smith on the shoulder without hesitation, and said a word of approval.

"You're right. If Deutsche Bank lowers its benchmark interest rate and truly prospers with the European Community, then no one can do anything about it, even if there is a loophole in front of them. ”

Andy Smith didn't answer, he knew that Shen Jiannan must have something to say.

As a real financial elite, he can feel the arrogance and domineering, arrogance and neuroticism in Shen Jiannan's bones.

It's not a neuropathy, who dares to open up to challenge a country's central bank.

Today's First Capital has only $300 million in liquidity, and if you want to short the pound, there is no difference between touching your neck.

But how can a person who can master an investment company with assets of $2 billion be a real neurosis?

Andy Smith listened quietly, hoping that Shen Jiannan would be able to convince him, and that Shen Jiannan would be able to find out the flaws in his analysis, he was a guy who was really obsessed with monetary research.

Shen Jiannan naturally wouldn't let him down.

He let go of the hand on Andy Smith's shoulder, walked to the window, and looked out the glass at the starry night.

At night, Canary Wharf is very beautiful, as a financial district, there is no shortage of bright lights around, fluorescent lights, colorful colors like bright gems, the city as far as the eye can see, embellished with extraordinarily beautiful.

Everyone present quietly looked at Shen Jiannan's back, waiting for him to explain, expect, and a different kind of excitement.

Everyone knows that once a person like Shen Jiannan speaks, that reason will definitely be earth-shattering. This top-level foraging has mastered the rules of the world.

"After World War II, Deutsche Bank had a traditional role in fighting inflation. Preventing a populist resurgence, I think you all know that, right?"

What is populism?

World War II was both a risk shift caused by the economic downturn and a collective outbreak of populism.

The flowers are gradually charming to the eye.

Wealth, power, desire, self-confidence.

When any kind of thing reaches the point of expansion, that kind of psychological arrogance and arrogance, empty-sightedness, is an extremely dangerous thing.

Money is a person's blood.

When there is enough qi and blood, people will become extraordinarily strong, and their hearts will become crazy and arrogant like wild horses.

Just like Ben, being a defeated country is a shame and a lesson in itself, but since the economy has developed, people have money in their pockets and forget the price they paid in the past.

Even the Prime Minister has made wild remarks about the United States as an inferior country, and the Americans are nothing more than that.

The prime minister, let alone the people, under the guidance of the media, said that he had forgotten how he was defeated, and since the Plaza Accord, he has squandered a lot of money all over the world in a vain attempt to buy the entire earth.

But anyone who dares to say that this is not good at all, they will be insulted and threatened, and even be labeled as a Japanese traitor.

But Germany, as a defeated country, has deeply absorbed the lessons and has always been very resistant and afraid of the kind of expansion that wealth brings.

So the president of Deutsche Bank has an unwritten duty, no matter the situation, to fight inflation as the first duty.

Bang bang bang!

Several people present could hear their own heartbeats.

The duties of Deutsche Bank have only been heard of in legends, but Shen Jiannan said so, that is, for sure.

That..... With the current rate of inflation in Germany, it is likely that Deutsche Bank will not really lower interest rates.

July is not long left, and at the next German interest rate meeting, if Germany does not lower interest rates.....

"If Germany doesn't cut interest rates, or even raise interest rates, you say, wouldn't it be fun? ”

"Haha!"

Shen Jiannan laughed wildly, and his madness was fully revealed.

But no one is dissatisfied with this, if Germany does not cut interest rates but raises interest rates, then the EC exchange rate mechanism will be directly shattered by Germany.

Everyone present couldn't help but get excited, if the situation developed as their boss thought, then a great opportunity was waiting for them.

No one is a fool, if the world's capital moves, let alone Britain, the United States will not be able to bear it either.

But......

Lust cannot become a reality, do speculation, and always control the blood in the waistband of the trousers.

Excitement makes everyone's blood flow accelerate, but reason, so that everyone continues to be awake.

"Boss. But what if Germany can't withstand the pressure of the major member states to cut interest rates?"

"Carrot head. Now, you can't really bury yourself like a turnip where there's a hole. OK？”

Damn, what a metaphor this is.

Robert John secretly slandered himself, very dissatisfied with Shen Jiannan's title and evaluation of him, but the awe couldn't help but spread in his bones.

"Oh, buy it. Praise God. Boss, your wisdom is like the light of God shining on the world, and I finally know why you asked me to build a financial company. ”