"William. In addition to continuing to open short positions in the pound, it is also necessary to open a short position on German long-term bond futures, and in addition to this, we also need to open a certain long position in UK short-term interest rate futures and a long position in long-term government bonds"

“......”

Short selling the pound, it is understandable that the British economy is sluggish, and there is a certain expectation of depreciation of the pound.

But short German long-term government bonds and long British short-term government bonds.

What kind of sassy bag operation is this?

William couldn't help frowning.

The so-called interest rate futures, as the name suggests, are standardized contracts launched based on interest rate fluctuations.

Because since the oil crisis, interest rate fluctuations in various countries have become increasingly serious, and the government has to curb the cost of private commercial lending through control, but this control itself is mandatory and not conducive to business development, so holders of various financial products, especially all kinds of financial institutions, urgently need a simple, feasible and effective tool to manage interest rate risk.

It is against this backdrop that interest rate futures came into being.

Treasury bonds, also known as treasury bonds, are the largest high-grade financial derivatives in interest rate futures.

Because the bond futures directly reflect the changes in the market interest rate, but the deposit and loan interest rate is not generated by the market transaction, but is set by the central bank, so the central bank's monetary policy is the most important impact on the price of treasury bond futures.

The long-term integration of the two Germanys and the jubilant influx of East Germans into West Germany, where they enjoyed more freedom and material abundance, in the hope of employment and social welfare, have been forcing the German government's budget deficit to increase massively.

When a country's fiscal deficit is too high, just like a company with too much debt, it is not a good thing for the country's long-term economic development, and it is also a long-term negative for the country's currency, and the only way to solve the fiscal deficit in the future is to reduce government spending or increase taxes.

Both of these measures have a negative impact on economic or social stability.

If a country's fiscal deficit increases, the country's currency will fall, and conversely, if the fiscal deficit narrows, it means that the country's economy is good and the country's currency will rise.

With Germany's current deficit and the high level of consolidation against the US dollar, as the pace of German integration slows, the German government's investment in infrastructure and various kinds is bound to decrease, and the tax rate will definitely increase.

According to this logic, the probability of the mark falling against the dollar is much higher than rising.

As one of the leading countries in the European Union, the Deutsche Mark has the largest proportion of ECU, and now the United Kingdom, Italy, France, and Belgium are in a downturn, and need to cut interest rates to release currency reserves to stimulate inflation.

As the old saying goes, people can't help themselves.

Many times, the country is not a bigger river.

In the EU, even if Germany wants to curb inflation and raise interest rates, it will have to consider the reactions of other countries.

Neither political demands nor the economic situation of EU member states are suitable for raising interest rates.

There is no possibility of raising interest rates in Germany, short German government bonds, and the UK is likely to cut interest rates to stimulate inflation, but it is long British government bonds.

Boss, did you get kicked in the head by a donkey?

Wilhelm thought about it for a long time, but he didn't understand any reason to short German government bonds and long British government bonds.

Treasury bonds are bonds issued by the state, and the benchmark is customized with annualized returns, so the trend of treasury bond futures in the market is inversely proportional to the interest rate.

If the interest rate is raised, the income of the bank's fixed deposit certificate will increase, and the income from buying treasury bonds will decrease, and the price will fall without the impetus of the buyer's capital, and vice versa.

With the current fundamentals of the UK and the signal released by the Bank of England not long ago, cutting interest rates is almost a certainty, countries need lower interest rates to stimulate inflation, and Deutsche Bank, which has switched to the European Central Bank, the demands of member states are also crucial.

If Germany raises interest rates again, the mark will inevitably continue to strengthen, and then liquid capital will continue to flow out of other countries to hold Mark assets, which is very detrimental to countries except Germany.

There is almost no possibility of a German interest rate hike.

"Boss. To be honest, I don't understand why I would do this. The Bank of England has no chance of raising interest rates at all. You may not be in the UK and don't know, the British mortgage interest rate is not fixed, and now that the UK property is in a downturn, they will definitely cut interest rates. ”

"William. You probably still don't understand what the core of capitalism is. Believe me, the EU is the core of capital, then, it will always be capital first. Also, you probably didn't notice the Fed's movements. I expect that at next week's interest rate meeting, Greenspan will definitely tell the market a clear possibility of raising interest rates, or make a decision to raise interest rates.

Think about it, if you were the president of Deutsche Bank, would you watch the depreciation of the mark spur inflation again, or would you choose to raise interest rates to curb inflation.

That's right.

I think you also need to understand what is the difference between the core responsibilities of Deutsche Bank and the Federal Reserve. ”

“......”

What is the difference between Germany and the Fed?

William looked confused. Aren't they all central banks?

Raised his eyebrows helplessly.

William had a serious sense of crisis, and as the company's territory grew, he found that he was unable to keep up with his boss's conquest.

"Boss. I think I need to recharge, do you have any good suggestions. ”

"Haha...... William, do you know what I like most about you?"

"Boss, if you like it, I'm willing to dedicate. ”

"Get out. My favorite is to ask even if you don't understand. If you want to understand the rules of the world, I suggest you take a look at the I Ching and the Art of War. ”

“......”

Hang up.

William waved his hand and rubbed Hattie Morahan's golden hair, this guy deeply remembered Shen Jiannan's teaching, as a trader, you must control the blood in your head.

After a long time, his heart gradually stabilized.

Picking up the mouse and clicking a few times, the contracts of the London International Futures Market appeared in front of you.

20-UK-CIR，103.15。

SG，99.8.

GGB，105.35.

After a few casual glances, William waved away Hattie Morahan who was wiping his lips and picked up the phone.

In a moment, the call was answered.

"Little three. I'm William. 20-UK-CI added more than 30 million positions. SG September, more than 10 million positions. 10-GGB, sell 30 million pounds. ”

“......”

Ukraine, Chenivchka Oblast.

An army green helicopter, humming over the state, sits in the cockpit and looks down from the sky, full of green, making people feel a different kind of relaxation.

But for Enron Kardashian, the heart is like being tugged, and it is difficult to calm down.

At that time, she always thought that she would never see her family again, so she could only flee incognito all over the world, but who would have thought that after several turnarounds, she could finally return to her homeland.

Every inch of land seems to have a familiar taste, and every forest seems to have the smell of home.

"Enron. Nervous? It's not like you. ”