Miyamoto Naoto shook his head again and again, and said: "Now the Qing country is a dry bone in the grave, although the appearance of the shelf is not small, but in fact it is crumbling, a push is about to fall, rooted in our intelligence officers to get the news, Britain and France and other countries have been supporting Yuan Shikai in the south to divide the country, it can be seen that Britain and France and other countries are not optimistic about the Qing country, and the Qing country's Western Empress Dowager and the emperor are running Taiyuan and Xi'an, just waiting for East China to send troops and prepare to escape, the lord of a country is still like this, how can the Qing country be pinned on high hopes?"

Ito Hirofumi was silent for a while, and said: "Britain and France and other countries supported Yuan Shikai to divide in the south, Yuan Shikai and his people are quite powerful, and there is the support of Britain and France, and it may not be impossible to create a foundation in the south, since it can't be united with the Qing State, then what if it unites with Yuan Shikai to fight against East China?"

Miyamoto Naoto still shook his head and said: "Yuan Shikai does have some abilities, and he can be regarded as a generation of heroes, but if the opponent is an overseas Chinese, I am afraid it will be difficult to show it." And there is not much time left for Yuan Shikai, East China will use troops against the Qing court next year at the latest, first north and then south, after taking northern China, there will be a period of digestion, but this process will not exceed 5 years, so the time left for Yuan Shikai to integrate the south is only 5 years at most, although Yuan Shikai has the support of Britain and France, but want to integrate southern China within 5 years, to achieve the ability to unify northern China in East China, I think this is not easy. ”

Ito Hirobumi smiled bitterly and said, "According to your statement, Japan has nothing else to do except compromise with East China?"

Miyamoto Naoto nodded, and said: "The national struggle is still a conflict of interests, not a matter of will, Britain and France have been fighting for more than 100 years, it can be said that they have a deep hatred, but in order to contain Germany, the two countries can also release their past suspicions and work together, why can't Japan temporarily let go of its hatred for East China, and reconcile with East China first! Reconciliation has three major advantages for Japan: First, Japan will not have to face the threat of war for the time being, will be able to reduce its military spending, and will use most of its funds for economic development to restore Japan's vitality at an early date; second, Britain, France, the United States, and other countries must give Japan greater benefits if they want to use Japan to contain East China; and third, Japan can regain access to China's resources and markets, which will also help Japan recover its economy. ”

After listening to Miyamoto's words, Ito Hirobumi pondered again, Miyamoto's words are not unreasonable, because it is the third point, it is easier for people to ignore, but Ito Hirobumi knows that this point is actually quite important, because the economy is the foundation of the country, if the economy is not good, then everything in the country will not be able to play.

Although Japan's modernization reform was far more comprehensive and thorough than that carried out by the Qing court, its economic dependence on China was quite large, because Japan was small and few and lacked resources, so mineral resources such as coal, iron ore, raw silk and other mineral resources and production raw materials needed to be imported from China, and the capacity of the domestic market was limited, mainly relying on exports to China.

Although Japan's industrial level can only be regarded as 2 or 3 levels in the world, it is still leading compared with the Qing court, and because Japan is close to China, the cost of transportation is much lower than that of European and American countries, but it can enjoy the low tariffs of Chinese customs like the same as European and American countries, so the price in the Chinese market is lower than that of European and American countries, and it is quite competitive. Most of the countries in Europe and the United States have given up this industry, while Japan, due to its low labor and low freight, took advantage of the situation to enter the market, and after the First Sino-Japanese War, it almost accounted for about seventy percent of China's cloth and textile market.

After the establishment of East China, Japan's textiles had a certain impact, but the competition was not long, so until the Far East War, Japan still occupied more than half of China's cloth and textile market.

However, after the Far East War, East China controlled all the outlets north of Shanghai, and imposed high tariffs on Japanese goods entering China. Production of raw materials has also been hampered, and while the ports south of Shanghai still maintain tariffs of only 5 percent, they have lost the convenience of shipping to the Yangtze River, which has led to a sharp increase in transportation costs, since most of China's mineral resources are located in the north or the Yangtze River basin.

As a result, not only did the cost of Japanese goods increase, but the selling price in the Chinese market also rose sharply, and in the Chinese market, Japan also faced product competition from East China, so it lost a large number of Chinese markets. Without the Chinese market, it will be difficult for Japan's economy to recover.

In fact, not only Japan, other countries are facing this problem, but other countries have basically conducted trade negotiations with East China, and each other has exchanged interests, made concessions, compromises, and most of the exports from Europe and the United States to China are heavy industrial products or light industrial products with high added value, and the industrial level of East China can not compete with them for the time being, and can only eat some of the bottom market, so although the share of European and American countries in the Chinese market has decreased, it can still be supported. However, Japan has not conducted trade negotiations with East China and reached an economic and trade agreement, and secondly, the added value of goods exported by Japan to China is not high, and there is a great overlap with East China, and as a result, Japan's interests in China have lost the most, and the export volume to China has been less than 2 percent before the Far East War, and although the import volume is only half, the cost is almost the same.

If East China and Japan also reach a commercial agreement, East China ** in tariffs to Japan to make certain concessions, on the export of Japan's mineral resources, production raw materials also relaxed restrictions, then Japanese goods in the Chinese market still have a certain competitiveness, Bi Dang China's market is huge, even if the industrialization of East China has made great progress, but the output is still limited, it is impossible to monopolize the entire Chinese market, or can set aside a part of the market share to Japan, although it can not be compared with before the Far East War, but it is much stronger than now.

But if you want to reach a business agreement with East China, you can only compromise with East China, apologize to East China, and compensate for losses.

Ito Hirobumi was silent for a long time before he said: "Miyamoto-kun, even if according to what you said, Japan compromises with East China, I am afraid it will be difficult to reconcile with East China, because the contradictions between Japan and East China are structural, such as North Korea and Taiwan, North Korea is a springboard for Northeast China to enter China, and the Chinese regime must not give up the Korean Peninsula, Japan and China have fought two wars here, each winning one, and East China ** It has already taken in a group of Korean exiles and given them a lot of financial aid, obviously staring at the Korean Peninsula; as for Taiwan, not to mention, it was originally China's territory, and East China has always regarded itself as safeguarding China's interests, and it is even more impossible for Japan to give up its demands on Taiwan, but Japan also cannot afford to lose Korea and Taiwan, so it is impossible to reconcile the contradictions between us and East China.

Although Ito Hirobumi said very pessimistic, Miyamoto Naoto was happy in his heart, it seems that Ito Hirobumi has been moved by his own words and relieved, because what he just raised is the problem of East China, not Japan. So Miyamoto Naoto said: "Sir, don't be pessimistic, I think it's okay." ”

Ito Hirobumi was stunned for a moment and said, "Okay?"

Miyamoto Naoto nodded and said: "What Mr. said is not wrong, the contradiction between our Japan and East China ** is structural, because it is impossible for two powerful countries to exist in the Far East at the same time, and our Japan and East China ** can only be one side succumbing to the other, but there is absolutely no room for coexistence." But this is in the long run, and in the short term, there is still the possibility of a temporary reconciliation between us and East China. ”

When Ito Hirobumi heard this, he couldn't help but feel refreshed, and said, "Miyamoto-kun, can you explain in detail?"

Miyamoto Naoto said: "First of all, we need stability in Japan now, and East China also needs it, because at least in the next 5 years, East China's goal is to unify China, so foreign actions will inevitably be reined in, unless someone provokes East China or provokes a war, otherwise it will be reconciled as much as possible, and secondly, it is beneficial to reach an economic and trade agreement with Japan, which is also beneficial to the economic development of East China, after all, the leaders of East China are pragmatic people and will not be rash. Of course, this kind of reconciliation is temporary, and once East China completes its reunification, or Japan recovers, it will re-enter the relationship of hostile competition. ”

Ito Hirobumi pondered for a while and said, "Then according to Miyamoto-kun's estimate, how long can this reconciliation last?"

Miyamoto Naoto said: "At least five years, because this is the necessary time for East China to complete the reunification, and a maximum of 10 years, because after East China completes the reunification, it will take a period of time to stabilize its rule and digest the results achieved." ”

Hirobumi Ito sighed and said, "In other words, Japan only has 10 years of development at most. ”

Miyamoto Naoto said: "Yes, so during this period of time, on the one hand, we must maintain a reconciled relationship with East China, and develop ourselves as soon as possible to recover our vitality, but we must never take the initiative to provoke East China; on the other hand, we must try our best to incite and instigate other countries to become enemies with East China, including secretly supporting Qing and Yuan Shikai, but we must not show our faces, and in the struggle between East China and other countries and forces, we will take advantage of the fisherman." This is the way for Japan to survive. ”

Hirofumi Ito nodded, also made up his mind, and said, "Okay, let's do it like this." Tomorrow I will convene a cabinet meeting and discuss it. ”