Witte then responded to the terms of negotiation put forward by the East China government one by one, determining which conditions were acceptable to Russia, which were acceptable, and which needed to be negotiated again, and the demand for reparations was directly rejected. And they all explained the reasons of the Russian side, and they spoke for more than 2 hours.

After the response, Witte also arranged the order of negotiation of various conditions, ranking the conditions that are not in much dispute between the two sides to be discussed first, and the conditions with large differences being discussed later, which is also the usual mode of negotiation, so the East China government did not refuse. By this time, the day's negotiations were all over, and the whole afternoon was basically Werther singing a one-man show, but the real game had not yet begun.

The next day was the negotiations between the East China government and Japan, which were similar to those of Russia, mainly because both sides understood each other's demands, and then determined the order of negotiations, and there was not much substance.

On the third day, the East China government had a bye, and Japan and Russia negotiated. This concludes the first round of the tripartite talks.

Although this round of negotiations did not produce any results, the process of negotiations was on the right track, so President Roosevelt finally breathed a sigh of relief, although he did not have any confidence in the outcome of the talks, but at least the negotiations continued at this pace, not to degenerate into a farce, and he and the United States can save face.

At this time, Roosevelt also received the [Evaluation Report on the Far East War after Britain and France entered the war] jointly compiled by the US War Department and the Navy Department.

During this period, the US Army and Navy Department jointly conducted two war games on the development of the Far East War after Britain and France entered the war; the first was that after the British and French combined fleets arrived in East Asia, the East China Government dispatched a fleet to engage in a decisive naval battle with the British and French combined fleets, with the result that the East China Government's fleet was defeated and suffered heavy casualties, thus completely losing its sea supremacy; and after the East China Government fleet blockaded the Tsushima Strait, Japan took advantage of the situation to massively increase its troops on the Korean Peninsula and, with the support of the British and French combined fleets, broke through the People's Army's defense line on the Yalu River and broke through the Liaodong Peninsula again; at the same time, Russia received a large amount of economic aid from France, thus stabilizing the domestic situationand increased a large number of troops to the Far East, recaptured Harbin in one fell swoop, and then attacked eastward along the Binzhou Line and Binsui Line of the Middle Eastern Railway.

The 300,000 Russian troops stationed in Shenyang responded to support on the inner line, and the people's army's shipping was cut off by the British and French combined fleet, and the army could not be replenished, and finally the whole line was defeated, and the northeast was lost. Later, Japan and Russia formed a coalition force, and with the support of the combined British and French fleets, launched a landing operation on the Shandong Peninsula, but the KPA stubbornly defended the beachhead and defeated the British and French combined fleets with shore fire resistance, thwarting the landing operations of Japan and Russia. The end of the war took 3-4 months.

The second war game was that after the Anglo-French combined fleet arrived in East Asia, the East China government did not dispatch a fleet to conduct a decisive naval battle with the British and French combined fleet, but dispersed the fleet, retreated to the port, and relied on shore defense batteries to engage the British and French combined fleet.

Under these circumstances, Japan's increase of troops on the Korean Peninsula did not go very smoothly; while the KPA was still able to obtain logistical support from Shandong, the Japanese army's attack on the Yalu River defense line was not smooth, and the two sides were still in a stalemate for more than two months; on the other front, the Russian army that launched a counteroffensive against the KPA had the support of the Russian army in Shenyang, and the battle proceeded relatively smoothly, marching all the way east, eventually recovering Vladivostok, and then moving south to assist the Japanese army in the war; in this case, the KPA abandoned the Yalu River defense line and fully retreated to Liaodong, blocking the attack of the Japanese-Russian coalition forces, and the Japanese army launched a landing operation in Lushun, but was defeated by the KPA, which lasted 4-5 months, the end of the war. In the end, the People's Army held Liaoyang and Lushun, the Russian army occupied Harbin and Changchun, and recaptured Vladivostok, and the Japanese army occupied the area along the Yalu River.

The two war games ended in the defeat of the East China Government, and the Anglo-French-Japanese-Russian coalition was able to win mainly on two points: First, the British and French combined fleets had the superiority of the Anglo-French combined fleet, and the US military held that the Anglo-French combined fleet had an absolute advantage over the KPA navy, and even if the East China Government adopted the tactics of avoiding war and retreating, it was obviously at a disadvantage, and could only guarantee its own shipping routes, and was unable to pose a greater threat to the Japanese army's sea transportation; second, the 300,000 Russian troops stationed in Shenyang, although this Russian army was trapped in Shenyang for more than seven months at the time of the war games, the US military believed that this Russian army still had considerable combat effectiveness and was able to provide external support, which can still pose a greater threat to the East China government.

Of course, these two war games alone are not enough to determine that the East China government will be defeated, and the US military plans to conduct at least five war games to produce more accurate results. After all, after Britain and France entered the war, the situation on the battlefield became extremely complicated, there were too many variables, and every change could affect the final result, for example, once the negotiations broke down, the East China government was very likely to first attack Shenyang before the British and French combined fleet arrived in the Far East, annihilate the Russian troops stationed in Shenyang, and eliminate this hidden danger.

Although the military strength of the Qing court was not strong, Bi Jing was recognized as the legitimate government of all countries in the world and still had great influence in China, so if the Qing court also joined the British, French, Japanese and Russian coalition forces, it would pose a major threat to the East China government. However, the Qing court was not a hard-line government, and it may not dare to enter the war easily until the war situation is clear. But Britain and France would certainly do their best to influence the Qing court and persuade it to join the Anglo-French-Japanese-Russian forces at the beginning of the war. And in this way, the variables are quite large. The 4th and 5th war games planned by the US military were based on the premise that the Qing court would enter the war.

However, Roosevelt gave the military too little time, and only completed two war games, and the conclusions drawn were not of great reference value, but the US military also gave the three main factors that affected the war: 1 is the strength of the British and French combined fleet, 2 is the 300,000 Russian troops stationed in Shenyang, and 3 is the attitude of the Qing court.

Although this report did not give a relatively clear conclusion, Roosevelt was quite satisfied, after all, he had given the military so much time, and the results of wargames can only be used as a reference, not necessarily the final result, otherwise he would not have fought in the future, and would have played wargames directly. However, judging from this report, Roosevelt can at least conclude that even if Britain and France enter the war, the East China government will not be completely without a chance, as long as the tactics are appropriate, and it will not be without the ability to maneuver. From this point of view, it is not appropriate for the United States to take sides until the outcome of the war is clear, so in the subsequent negotiations, the United States should still maintain a neutral position and not be overtly biased towards one side or the other.

At the same time that the United States was deducing and assessing the course of the war in the Far East after Britain and France entered the war, the East China government was also discussing the gains of this negotiation, although the negotiations were still going on at this time, and it was basically determined that it would not be successful, but the East China government still believed that the gains of this negotiation were huge, because it had received a lot of information from other travelers. The East China government has made a major breakthrough in the intelligence work of other traversers, although the authenticity of this information still needs to be screened and verified, but at least there is a direction for a breakthrough, only from this point of view, it is a huge victory. Naturally, the East China government will discuss this, and incidentally discuss the plan of action after the breakdown of the negotiations.

Xia Bohai first said: "Minister Shang, how credible do you think the information provided by Li Sanjie is?"

Shang Qisong, Minister of Security, said: "The most taboo thing in intelligence work is to judge the truth or falsity of a certain information without sufficient evidence to support it, but in my personal opinion, some of these materials must be true, as for that part, we must slowly investigate and verify, but there is finally a direction of investigation, no longer completely without a goal, so follow this clue to investigate, there will be a substantial major breakthrough." After a pause, Shang Qisong said: "I'm not interfering with the government's decision, but if we choose to cooperate with Anderson, we should be able to get more useful information out of his mouth, so I hope the government can fully consider this when making a decision." ”

Qin Zheng also said: "Professionals do professional things, and the credibility of these materials is still the responsibility of the Minister of Commerce, and no matter how much we discuss, we can't come up with any useful conclusions, so I think it is more pragmatic to discuss whether to cooperate with this Anderson." ”

Xia Bohai also nodded and said, "Lao Qin has a point, what do you think?"

Xu Jichao said: "I think that if it is just a general cooperation with Anderson, it has nothing to do with it, after all, it is also beneficial to us, but in-depth cooperation should still be done with caution, because I think this Anderson can not be trusted." ”

Qin Zheng said: "We cooperate with Anderson, whether we can trust him or not, it doesn't have much to do with him, if you want to say that Yuan Shikai can't be trusted, but don't we still cooperate with him?"

Xu Jichao said: "But Yuan Shikai and Anderson are not the same, Anderson is a traverser, knows us well, and is also an agent of the CIA." ”

Shang Qisong said with a smile: "Don't be misled by Hollywood movies, the CIA is actually not so magical, they can call the wind in the old time and space, to a large extent, it still depends on the strong national strength and scientific and technological strength of the United States, in fashionable terms, that is, they actually have the advantage of the system, so once they leave this system, the CIA agents are not so terrible." ”