The husband is the victor without a fight, and he has to count a lot;

The temple is not victorious without a fight, and it is considered to be less.

—From The Art of War

Wall Street, USA.

Quantum Fund Headquarters.

Stanley Druckenmiller took the information from Europe, turned the pen in his hand, and sorted out the possible impact and changes of the information line by line.

In the early years of George Soros's absence, in the midst of rapid social changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, Soros saw the opportunity of historical change and decided to withdraw from investment and devote all his energy and time to philanthropy. On the one hand, he donated to social groups, and on the other hand, he met with dignitaries from the Western powers, publicized his aid programs, and supported the changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.

In the summer of '89, Soros had already moved his family to London, which he used as a bridgehead to travel between the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The main investment task of the Quantum Fund has been handed over to Druckenmiller, who has only a little money to get by.

Now, Druckenmiller is the fund's top decision-maker and administrator.

After reading the contents of the information line by line, Druckenmiller forgot the pen he was spinning in his hand and fell into deep thought.

Politics and economics are like twin brothers, and the scales are inseparable. When an economic problem sharpens and a problem arises, it becomes a political problem, and the solution to a political problem is generally an economic means. The love and killing of politics and economy was vividly reflected in World War I and World War II.

After World War II, European countries wanted to tie their economies tightly together for the sake of historical empiricism. In this way, close economic ties will avoid wars that break out every few decades and create a "pan-European economy" to compete with the blood-sucking of the dollar.

This vision culminated in the birth of the European Community, the predecessor of the European Union, and the emergence of ERM, the predecessor of the euro.

The so-called European Exchange Rate Mechanism is actually the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, which is equivalent to a mutual compromise product of the member states of the European Community.

Because currency represents the sovereign credibility of a country, is the concrete embodiment of national strength, and is a way for the country to exist, under normal circumstances, no country will voluntarily give up its own currency, and hand over the independence and issuance of currency to others.

However, with the strength of the Warsaw Pact alliance, the rampant spread of the US dollar in various countries, and the strong impact of the yen economy on Europe, the members of the European Community, led by Germany, agreed to link the exchange rates of national currencies to each other, and have central banks intervene in market prices, rather than letting the market determine the exchange rate fluctuations.

Economic strength determines the right to political discourse, the German economy is the strongest in Europe, the Deutsche Mark has become the anchor of European currencies, and the currencies of various countries bite the Deutsche Mark and allow it to fluctuate in the range of ±6%. If the flexibility of the float is not enough, one country can negotiate with other countries to make adjustments. this

The system has achieved the goal of balancing exchange rate stability and interest rate flexibility.

In the more than 10 years of ERM's operation, the mechanism has worked well, with the following advantages: it reduces the volatility of European currencies, so that companies do not have to worry about sharp exchange rate fluctuations affecting business models and profits when investing and trading, and strengthens the ties between member countries, and interdependence can avoid many unnecessary disputes, such as wars.

In the mid-to-late 80s, after the privatization policy of Margaret Thatcher, the British economy was strong and inflation was low, and Margaret Thatcher believed that the economy was healthy and curbing inflation became the primary responsibility of the British government.

Nigel Lawson, the chancellor of the exchequer at the time, believed that the best way to control inflation was to pegged the pound to the Deutsche Mark, which could indirectly introduce Germany's inflation-resistant monetary policy into the UK. Due to the good British economy at that time, the Bank of England chose to cut interest rates in order to curb the rise of the pound against the Deutsche Mark.

This led to a catastrophe in which interest rate cuts led to a flood of mortgages, house prices skyrocketed, inflation rose, and the CPI rose from 2% in 1986 to 10% in 1990.

The Bank of England is not independent of the UK government, which can influence monetary policy. British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher has long been opposed to joining the ERM, insisting that the exchange rate of the pound should be determined by the market. But by 1990, Margaret Thatcher's political influence was waning and rising among other members of the party who wanted to link the pound exchange rate to the rest of Europe, including Nigel Lawson and his successor, John Major.

In October 1990, Chancellor of the Exchequer John Major persuaded other Treasury officials to join the ERM, an action that was also supported by other political parties. At that time, one pound could be exchanged for 2.95 German marks, and the British government was obliged to maintain the exchange rate in the range of 2.773-3.13.

Soon after, John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and Britain's accession to ERM was one of the major achievements of which he was proud. John Major believes that ERM is simply an "automatic cruise" mode, and in the future, the UK's monetary policy will operate on its own, and there is no need to bother.

Thinking of this, Druckenmiller couldn't help but have a smile on his face.

From a quantum point of view, the UK's auto-cruise monetary policy is simply whimsical and seems to no longer need to be bothered with, but in fact there are many shortcomings.

Joining the ERM means that the UK's monetary policy is no longer independent, but has become a passive follower of the German monetary policy, and the Bundesbank adopts a tight or loose monetary policy to combat inflation or release monetary liquidity, according to the agreement of the ERM, the Bank of England needs to adjust the monetary policy simultaneously.

However, the economic level of various countries is not consistent in a certain cycle, with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the merger of East and West Germany, Germany has greatly strengthened, inflation remains high, and Germany needs higher interest rates to curb inflation.

But Britain can't, although privatization has stimulated the British economy, it has also exposed various problems, continuous interest rate hikes, but also let Britain fall into an economic predicament, now, Britain needs to reduce interest rates to stimulate the economy, but restricted by the exchange rate mechanism, the British government simply can't print money to stimulate the economy as it wants.

After a moment of contemplation, Druckenmiller got up from his office chair and walked to the world map not far away.

Judging from the current situation in Europe, the UK will be the biggest weakness of this exchange rate mechanism, and it will never change.

As an island country, isolated from the European continent, its rail and road transport cannot be integrated into the European continental system, naturally it is impossible to integrate the entire European continental political situation, if Europe is unified, its political and cultural center may be Paris, Berlin or even Rome, but it will never be London.

And the European Union, which has a population of more than 200 million, has a unified foreign and economic policy, and Britain can only be reduced to a small follower, overwhelmed by its brilliant light.

Judging from the decisions made by the British in history, they are like-stirring sticks in Europe, and whichever European country is bigger will unite with other countries to fight him, and Spain, France, and Germany have all suffered greatly in history.

Now, the strength of Germany must have deeply disturbed both Britain and France.

Scott Betser has studied the UK property sector and shorted several property stocks. He told Druckenmiller: Germany maintains high interest rates, the pound is already at the lower limit of the ERM mechanism, and the Bank of England can maintain the pound by raising interest rates.

However, mortgage rates in the UK are usually floating, and if the central bank raises interest rates, people will immediately have pressure to repay, and the decline in consumption will make the UK even worse if it is already in recession.

Therefore, the Bank of England will definitely not raise interest rates.

Now, the biggest question is whether the Bundesbank can withstand the pressure from the other 12 countries to cut interest rates, and if Schlesinger can resist the pressure of the other 12 countries, the biggest shortcomings of ERM will be completely exposed.

"Schlesinger, I don't think you want to sacrifice the interests of Germany to bring with you a few pig teammates. They've cheated you again and again. ”

Retracting his gaze from the map, Druckenmiller muttered to himself.

Woe and blessing rely on, blessing and misfortune lurk!

The operation of the economy is like the theory of yin and yang, which is both contradictory and interdependent.

Later, inflation in various countries around the world was sluggish, and central banks scrambled to cut interest rates to stimulate inflation, and even many countries ran out of chips, and interest rates were lowered to the horizon, leaving their fate completely in the hands of God.

In the era of zero interest rate, an interest rate of 2.0 percent is enough to attract countless capitals, and a certain amount of treasure is only 0.2 percent higher than the bank's benchmark interest rate, which can precipitate trillions of funds.

Risk is always relative to benefit.

When the risk is higher than the bank's benchmark rate, you need to consider the possibility of loss of principal.

But unfortunately, many people always feel that there will never be him in the unlucky bastard.

A certain east's financial management reached 6.5 percent, and it easily attracted countless people who took risks to resolutely join the army of foundation builders at the risk of their principal being wiped out.

As a result, there was a problem with the problem of dealing with the problem immediately after expiration, and the fund lost as much as 70 percent.

P2P, financial management, financial management, and the prominent explosions of landmines one by one cannot prevent the succession of funds, because this is the nature of capital, chasing profits.

Boston, on the banks of the Charles River.

Shen Jiannan held a fishing rod in his hand, absentmindedly accompanying Song Xiaodan to fish by the river.

Compared with the subsequent competition to raise interest rates in various countries due to low inflation, the situation in various countries is now the opposite.

In March 1980, inflation in the United States was as high as 14.8%, and then Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker raised interest rates continuously, and the federal benchmark interest rate reached 20% in June 1981.

Yes, the benchmark interest rate is twenty percent, a terrifying figure that no one later dared to imagine.

This was followed by a recession in the United States, with inflation falling to 3% in 1983. The extremely tight monetary policy made room for Reagan, relying on the government's massive borrowing, coupled with the pumping of blood from the local market, and the Plaza Accord to coerce the United States to buy dollars, the U.S. economy took off, and Reagan smiled.

The Fed's Volcker and Reagan have become models for central banks and governments around the world: the "Volcker's sword" of tightening monetary policy to combat inflation, and the "Reaganomics" of stimulating the economy through fiscal deficits.

Since then, central banks have followed Volcker's lead and tightened monetary policy, and the world's people have come together to fight inflation, all while these tightening policies are paving the way for the global recession of the early nineties.

Now that the tide is turning, everything is already doomed when the Plaza Accord is signed, when the Soviet Union collapses, and when Ichiju Yasuno chooses to make concessions to the dollar.

Like the wheel of inertia, under all kinds of layouts and pushers, whether it is his hanging outside the chessboard, or European countries, choose or not, there are not many choices in themselves.

The question is how to cut off the best interests in the midst of this torrent.

There is a cap on the pool.

Just like the prize pool of the seven-color ball, the largest total amount of lieutenant generals is nothing more than emptying the prize pool.

To be short, one condition must first be met.

There is a rival handicap.

Because the three basic logics of short selling are to borrow, sell, and buy back again.

In the middle of the selling link, there needs to be a buyer to buy.

What happens if you don't have a buyer?

The borrowed money may be rotten in your hands like waste paper, and you will see the depreciation of the short-selling target, but you will lose like a red-headed Ah San.

The Bank of England is the biggest fat sheep in this game, but it also has only 22 billion pounds of foreign exchange reserves, which is equivalent to 44 billion US dollars.

This means that the total prize pool that can be withdrawn is $44 billion.

However, the general trend is created, and more people need to participate, and everyone will share the prize money in the prize pool, and the bets placed must be controlled within the maximum prize amount.

Otherwise, it will be a busy affair in vain.

Shen Jiannan couldn't help but raise his eyebrows, there is so much meat on the plate, so he can only strike first, and as for the one who starts later, the disaster cannot be relied on on his head.

The breeze rippled on the river, blowing the fish floating gently in the river, and suddenly, Shen Jiannan's fish drifted.

Song Xiaodan, who was paying attention to fishing, hurriedly shouted in a low voice.

"Jiannan, a fish has been hooked. ”

Fish?

This time, forget about those guys as fish.

Baring his teeth and laughing, Shen Jiannan let the fish float slowly on the surface of the river, trembling as the fish tried to move.

The fish drifted a little.

The fish drift moved again.

Suddenly, the fish floated and disappeared from the river.

Phew-

Shen Jiannan retracted his thoughts, lifted the fishing rod slightly, and shook his tail at a fish weighing about three catties, unwilling to be fished out of the river.

"Wow, this fish is so fat. ”

"Hmm. It's quite plump indeed. ”

"What kind of metaphor are you doing, implying that I'm fat?"

"My Miss Song, I'm complimenting, okay. Look at this fish, it is big where it should be big, small where it should be small, not fat or greasy, and has a slender body. Especially this fish's mouth, one by one, hehe....."

Shen Jiannan said with the fish, his eyes were full of evil smiles.

I just didn't say it directly: It's like you.

How could Song Xiaodan agree, his eyes widened, and he grabbed the bastard's ear.

"Oh, it hurts. The gentleman does not move his hands. ”

"Stinky rascals. You say it again. ”

"I just told you not to do it. ”

"Phew, don't make me wonder what you're talking about. ”

"Baby. Why are you so lustful now, I just hurt, let you stop doing it, what are you thinking about. ”

“......”

Chinese Net