Chapter 22 One Click Shot That Should Not Appear in the World
Carvin, the front is slightly fixed)
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A night's hard work, the dual release of mental and physical, made Shen Jiannan fall into a deep sleep, so although he only rested for five hours, his spirit was very good, and he was not in a daze because of William's words.
Raising the discount rate to 12 percent, Shen Jiannan took the phone and thought about it.
It seems that the Bank of Italy reacted quickly enough, obviously trying to use this practical benefit to hedge the adverse impact of Schlesinger's public speech on the lira, and then use the foreign exchange reserves in hand to take the opportunity to buy the lira to repel and digest the market's bearish perception of the lira.
But does it work?
Useless.
Having been engaged in the speculative industry for two lifetimes, Shen Jiannan has never seen a time when the lira is in a unilateral bearish factor and cannot find any reason to go long.
Yes, never, two lifetimes.
Many stock traders who have traded well know that the good news of a listed company does not mean that the price of securities will rise, and the negative factors of a listed company do not mean that the price will fall. Or, the fundamentals of a stock are very good, its finance, profitability, dividends, development direction, and stability are outstanding in the entire market or the same industry, so to speak, it is almost a machine that makes money without loss, and logically speaking, it should rise.
But in fact, the price of this kind of security always behaves completely different from its fundamentals, and the final spread may not even be as good as picking up a piece of garbage on the ground. The junk securities named Black Five have terrible fundamentals, but sometimes, its spread income will make people stunned.
It seems strange and unreasonable.
Forex traders often face the same problem.
Why is the central bank cutting interest rates but the local currency is strengthening, why is the trade surplus local currency depreciating, why is the central bank governor making tough speeches but the local currency is depreciating, and why is the economic data so bad, why is it still appreciating?
Should the book of international finance be burned?
The answer, of course, is no.
When determining the price factor, the impact of a single factor on the price is not a direct relationship, but more of an expectation, and what really directly determines the price is money.
Therefore, the impact of a single factor on the market itself is not so reliable, and even if it does, it may not be immediately effective.
But what if many factors in the same direction are superimposed at the same time?
The results speak for themselves!
The Deutsche Mark is the most heavily weighted country in Egypt, and now Deutsche Bank has almost directly stated that the Italian lira needs to depreciate, which means that the lira will definitely not appreciate, or even find a reason to go long.
At least until the lira approaches the lower band of the floating mechanism, there is no reason to go long for the lira.
Never, as a subject would be in this case, unilaterally could not find any logical reason in the opposite direction.
This has never happened before.
However, the Bank of Italy must maintain the lira ratio.
This is very scary.
In other words, the price floating lower limit mechanism of the Italian lira will act like a magnet to absorb the price of the lira to that position.
No matter what efforts the Bank of Italy makes.
"William. I'm glad you've learned to think with your brain, but don't worry about that little problem. This interest rate hike by the Bank of Italy will only make the situation worse, which means that Italy itself admits that the lira is now overvalued and has no confidence in the lira. ”
“......”
Holding the phone, William paused for a moment, thoughtful.
For a long time, a hint of understanding flashed in his eyes, the regulation of interest rates is to leave available space for monetary policy, when the economy is facing unfavorable factors, use loose monetary policy to stimulate inflation, when the economy is good, raise interest rates, tighten monetary policy to curb inflation, and leave room for operation in the future.
Now, the Italian economy is sluggish, and what is needed is an easy monetary policy, and if it is not desperate, the interest rate will not be raised at all.
This is undoubtedly to quench your thirst, and the more you drink, the faster you die.
"Got it?"
"The big man is eight feet tall, and a few words make the small man suddenly open. Your wisdom is as admirable as a mountain. ”
"William. You are also Chinese, this horse fart is not as good as the old radish head, you are not ashamed, nothing to look at the idiom, don't know every day to learn capitalist corruption.
“......”
After some ridicule, Shen Jiannan hung up the phone and got up.
Qina, who was woken up, wrapped in pajamas and saw his underwear handed over, and Yulia, who was bare-chested and barebacked, put on a shirt for him.
Speaking of others, they know the corruption of capitalism, obviously, Shen Jiannan himself also enjoys this kind of capitalist corruption, with the help of the two, the shameful Adam suddenly became a dog, wearing a black suit and a blue tie, looking personable and with an indescribable temperament.
"My dear. If you study the itinerary today, I think that Italy will soon sponsor us with a large amount of money. ”
"Shen. You know, if you say something like a bastard, you're going to be killed. ”
"Asshole?"
"Oh my God. You don't know how asshole you are. ”
"But don't you just like my assholes, haha....."
Kissing goodbye to the two like a dragonfly in water, Shen Jiannan laughed and walked out of the bedroom, he was a little looking forward to whether the market would be stunned when faced with gadgets made by a guy like Mitnick.
Eight o'clock in the morning.
Bank of Italy, Trading Department.
Qian Pi looked at the giant LCD screen not far away, and his breathing was a little rapid and heavy.
Deutsche Mark: Italian Lira, 1:810, Deutsche Mark: US Dollar, 1:1.482, US Dollar to Italian Lira, 1:1200.45, French Hair Salon: Lira......
Lira weighted index, 521.00.
521.00
A very loving number.
But for Ciampi, he doesn't feel much love for this number, not because he is Italian.
An hour and a half after the opening of the morning session, the lira in the foreign exchange futures market suffered a large number of selling orders, the pound to the lira, the German mark to the lira, the franc to the lira, the ECU three weights to the highest trading and most active price comparison, all are short lira positions, under the impact of these short positions, the price of the lira was compared from 480, and soon hit 521.00.
It's a terrible thing.
In the past, the volume of transactions in the early morning of the lira futures market, even in the London market, was only a few million pounds at most, and in the New York foreign exchange market, in the morning stage, the maximum turnover was two million dollars.
However, today, contrary to the norm, in just an hour and a half, the turnover of the lira in the London foreign exchange market has exceeded 20 million pounds, and the turnover in the New York market has exceeded 30 million dollars.
It is clear that Schlesinger's speech has attracted the attention of global capital to the lira.
Habitually, Champi raised his wrist and looked at the time.
At 8:10 a.m., only 20 minutes before the spot market opened.
Can the lira hold on?
Colonna district, a dozen storey buildings.
Kevin Mitnick holds an arcade button-like gadget and shows a dozen young men and women what it does.
"The key here is to close the position. As long as you press it, all positions can be quoted in an instant, and confirmed.
"This is a one-click position. Suppose you want to open a position of 1,000 lots on a certain target, increase the price by one tick each time, and fill it in 50 times, then you will shoot this button and the program will be executed. ”
"This is ......"