Chapter 90: The money in the prize pool has already been emptied
Wall Street, USA.
Due to the time difference, the sun still hangs in the sky, and the westward slanting sunlight emits a soft light, making the whole city seem to be covered with a golden glow.
Bathed in the soft light, Stanley Druckenmiller clenched his fists excitedly at the news of Frankfurt's return. The current exchange rate system cannot be stabilized only by partial currency depreciation, and a broader currency adjustment is better than a separate lira and peseta adjustment.
As for not getting 'approved', it's just a joke.
What's even more interesting is that Schlesinger actually appeared in the hotel with Shen Jiannan in the East, and it seemed that they had a meal together.
There is no clearer signal, and it is clear that Schlesinger is more than willing to see the pound squeezed out of the exchange rate mechanism, and the Bundesbank does not intend to cut interest rates further for its weaker neighbors.
It's really German.
Fundamentally, the British economy is now in a quiet period, real estate prices and securities prices have been falling, the unemployment rate has also climbed one after another, and there is no hope for recovery in the short term.
In addition, privatization reforms have also made the British manufacturing industry semi-abandoned, and it has become more dependent on imports.
The rise and fall of any kind of commodity, logically, can be found in different trend logic.
Like, the book of the past.
The central bank has cut interest rates but the local currency is strengthening, while the trade surplus is depreciating.
Why is the central banker's hawkish speech that the local currency is depreciating, and the economic data is so bad, and the currency is still appreciating?
Obviously, a single factor is not so reliable, and even if it has an impact, it may not work immediately, but what if many factors in the same direction are superimposed at the same time?
After much deliberation, Druckenmiller found that he could not find any reason to long the pound at all, and all the information and details pointed in the same direction, that is, to short the pound.
There has never been a market like the pound.
Never.
Technically, that is, capital, does not support the rise of the pound, and the British economy does not support the rise of the pound, on the contrary, what the UK needs today is a lower interest rate to stimulate inflation, which will have a negative effect on the price of the pound, and if the pound faces a crisis and needs more funds to maintain the price of the pound, they cannot find any allies, Italy is finished, Spain is finished, and as for France, with the relationship between Britain and France, it is absolutely impossible to help Britain.
Now, the Germans are almost openly saying that the pound needs to be devalued......
Is there a reason not to short the pound?
Not at all.
There is no reason not to short the pound, and that means it is a no-brainer victory. Druckenmiller didn't hesitate any longer and walked towards Soros's office.
In his office, George Sorosto frowned with his chin furrowed, and before that, he had been reading the news from Frankfurt.
So he was in a bit of a bad mood, and Schlesinger was obviously happy to see the pound forced out of the European exchange rate mechanism, otherwise, he would not have said such things in an interview with the media, let alone eat with the Oriental man in the open.
Coincidental?
Socializing?
Where can there be a coincidence in this world, even if it is really a duty party, the two of them will never have a dinner together at this time, and they happen to be discovered by the media.
But Schlesinger had dinner with that Oriental, which means that that Oriental is Schlesinger's more optimistic bearish capital, not his George Soros.
Hell yes!
Where the hell did this guy come from?
Bang bang –
There was a knock on the door suddenly, and George Soros's frowning brow immediately relaxed, as the soul of the Quantum Fund, he couldn't be detected by his subordinates about his impetuousness and unwillingness, which would make people less in awe of him.
After sorting out his emotions and making sure that no clues would be revealed on his face and eyes, Soros responded lightly.
It was Stanley Druckenmiller, and there was a bit of excitement and excitement on his face.
"George. You saw the news of the return of Germany, and I think it's time to gradually increase your positions. ”
Druckenmiller has wagered $1.5 billion in sterling since August and increased his position to $3 billion after talking to Robert John.
However, there is still a big gap between this and the total position size discussed by the two, you know, the UK can use at least $40 billion in foreign exchange reserves, such a large prize pool, what to wait for if it is not emptied at one time.
Soros listened, looking confused, and he objected: "It doesn't make sense. ”
"What do you mean?"
"Judging by the news so far, there are few downsides, and I can't even find any reason to go long the pound. So why just build up positions gradually? Why don't you just increase it to $15 billion?"
Stanley Druckenmiller was taken aback.
At present, the position size of the quantum fund in the market is $3 billion, and if it is directly increased to $15 billion, it will need to increase by $12 billion.
That's a scary number.
Involuntarily, Druckenmiller's admiration for Soros has increased a lot, although he is sure that he can't find any reason not to short the pound, but he still doesn't dare to play so big. Soros, on the other hand, will give it a go as long as he feels that this is the time to give it a go, and when he is sure that he is right, there is no such thing as betting too much.
With this kind of strong belief and courage, he is really still far, far away.
It's a pity that Druckenmiller doesn't know that the reason for this is that Soros has been stimulated by something that can't be spoken, an oriental face, which makes him always feel like there is a thorn in his heart.
The final decision was made, and Druckenmiller and Soros began selling the pound to anyone willing to buy from them.
However, there is a well-established process for shorting mechanisms.
Borrow, sell, and return.
Only when all these three conditions are met can the short sale be considered successful.
Considering that the Bank of England is off business at this time, this is a very good point to take advantage of the fact that the Bank of England is unable to intervene in the market and inflict a violent blow on the pound.
When the news of the Quantum Fund being sold like crazy spreads, the banks that have received a large number of Quantum Fund sell orders will alert their currency traders, which will immediately trigger a chain effect.
None of the investment bank guys are idiots, and they're bound to follow the tentative sell-off, and as their voices spread out and around the world, everyone will know that the collapse has begun.
But where to borrow money has become the first question at the moment.
Fortunately, Soros never fights uncertain battles, and during his time between London and Georgia, he has built up many London finance companies.
There's no more wealthy institution than these guys.
Although Soros is ashamed that the guys are close to the Ponzi scheme to absorb deposits, there is no doubt that these guys are rich.
As Drucken Maitreya left to contact Wall Street banking institutions in the trading department, Soros picked up the postcard bag he usually kept and flipped through it.
Big Big Wolf Finance Company, Bald Strong Finance Company, Xiongda Investment Company......