Is this guy an idiot?

An idea popped up in the minds of the HSBC group.

Merry Weather, a global chain of HSBC banks, is the Chief Executive Officer of HSBC Holdings Hong Kong and the Chief Executive Officer of HSBC Asia.

He knows better than many people about the situation in the Southeast Asian real estate market.

From 1983 to 1989, after seven years of continuous economic growth, the economy improved, and production naturally grew, but as the continuous injection of capital promoted the increase in production capacity, the market economy began to appear oversupply.

The European economy grew at 4.3 in 1988 and fell to 3.3 in 1989.

The slowdown in economic growth has made many prescient capitals feel the crisis.

This is because history has proven countless times that economic development has cycles, and when the contradictions between the productive forces and the relations of production in capitalist society expand, economic crises will come.

It is impossible to avoid economic cycles.

Capital determines the price, when the price rises, the supply system will be driven by profits, and then the relationship between supply and demand will expand, including human resources, material resources and production capacity, to overcapacity caused by the economic crisis, the industry reshuffle is coming.

This is an insurmountable contradiction between the productive forces and the relations of production in capitalist society, which can also be called a systemic risk.

In 1990, the overall European economy slowed down again, and the growth rate fell to 2.2 percent.

After all, capital pursues profits, and the European economy has been in a downward spiral, and liquid capital has begun to target the world.

The U.S. market has just come out of the economic crisis, but it is still vacillating with great risks, and the market has experienced a tragic crisis and has been dragged into the bottomless abyss by real estate, and investors who go bankrupt and jump off the building are queuing up on the roof every day.

Only Southeast Asian countries are in the early stages of development because of the low price of manpower and resources.

In particular, neon capital, the world's second largest economy, continues to be injected into Southeast Asian countries, and with these capital injections, the economies of Southeast Asian countries are developing rapidly.

The four countries, led by Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia, have a tendency to catch up with developed regions such as Hong Kong and Singapore, and are known as the Asian miracle.

The 'Four Tigers' and the 'Four Tigers' are juxtaposed, showing the world the unlimited potential of Asia.

In addition to neon, Western European capital is also pouring into emerging markets in Southeast Asia, where real estate and securities markets are booming, driven by capital, HSBC's banking data shows.

Almost every week, the securities market in Southeast Asian countries is rising, and property prices are also rising.

The data from the branches in various countries is very clear: household incomes in these countries have been rising, GDP growth is changing day by day, the number of real estate investors has continued to increase, loans are good, and real estate bad debts are almost less than 1 percent.

The momentum is like a sharp blade, and the strong development trend is clear at a glance.

However, there are people who want to short sell Southeast Asian real estate.

Merry Weather's eyes looked at Shen Jiannan with strange eyes.

He wondered in his heart, did this guy have a faint braincase, or was he so young and arrogant that he forgot that the sky was high and thick?

Take Thailand, for example.

Under the capital injection, Thailand has experienced more than ten years of slow development, the economy has been soaring, and in May, the Bank of Thailand lifted the restrictions on foreign capital inflows, and the capital flowing into Thailand from HSBC every month is in US dollars.

Driven by these capitals, Thailand's SET has continued to rise, and the real estate industry is booming in the early sun, all of which are in an upward cycle.

It can also be understood as a trend.

This is an economic law that cannot be violated by the capital market.

As a veteran banker, Merrywether knows how frightening the cyclical nature of this economic law is.

History has proven countless times that if you go against this kind of periodicity, you will definitely die a miserable death.

The most intuitive embodiment is the securities market, a downward market, like a bomb falling from the sky, whoever dares to pick it up, will be blown to pieces.

The rising market is a sword out of the sheath, and it is also a bullet that has just been fired, and if you don't block the bullet when it reaches its maximum range, you will inevitably be shot to death by the bullet.

Just like the United States.

After 1929, the U.S. stock market and real estate industry rose for 57 consecutive years. In those 57 years, no matter how sluggish the U.S. economy was, real estate prices never really fell.

Because real estate is the most weighted asset of any country, all countries will try to protect the smooth development of the real estate market at all costs.

It was not until the unstable exchange rate of the US dollar in 85 that the outbreak of the US financial crisis dragged real estate into the abyss.

But before that, the U.S. economy had been in a downturn, and the continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar exchange rate had been foreshadowed.

At present, the emerging market countries in Southeast Asia only have a good momentum, and it is impossible to suddenly have the possibility of a real estate crash.

The same is true in Hong Kong and other countries.

After 1949, Hong Kong's economy has been booming, and real estate prices have continued to rise.

The reason for this is clear to Merryweather.

Since the advent of money, mankind has established countless monetary systems. The gold standard, the silver standard to the silver standard, and now the credit standard.

But no matter what kind of currency issuance system is, it will not be able to avoid the eventual collapse.

The reason is that human society is a pyramid structure.

In this form, no matter what the monetary system is, it will inevitably face the day of collapse.

Human selfishness and greed drive the progress of society.

With the purchasing power of money, countless people are allowed to create value for this society.

But everyone's abilities are different after all.

Some are smart, some are hardworking, some are stupid, and some are lazy.

For a number of reasons, the size of the currency issuance will only grow larger and larger, to the point that it will naturally collapse. Because if you don't increase the amount of money issued, then a fixed amount of money will make some of them destitute.

Just as a hundred dollars are allocated to a hundred people, if the monetary aggregate is not expanded, then the end result must be that eighty of them will be penniless.

However, this result is not conducive to the stable development of society.

As a result, money can only be over-issued when needed, and only by ensuring that the lowest part of the population can live normally, they can create greater value.

Based on this economic and political principle, the issuance of money will only increase, and the symbol of money will only increase.

So, in theory, prices are only going to rise.

As for the fall.

It's not impossible, but the probability is very small.

In terms of data and economic theory, the rise can be unlimited, but the decline is limited. Even the collapse of Japan's real estate today came to the limit after decades of continuous growth in the post-war period and the saturation of the market.

And if we want to delve into the reasons, the main reason is that the government itself chose to retreat from the rapids, and it is not the trajectory of the market itself at all.

"Shen. I think our bank needs to negotiate it, and it will take a little time, do you think it's okay?"

"Of course. ”

"Thank you for your understanding. ”

“......”

Soon, Merweser led the team to send Shen Jiannan and his party out of the bank, and as the back of the lengthened Lincoln gradually faded away, he immediately showed the reaction ability that a top banker should have.

"John. To confirm the data of the real estate market in each country, we need to carefully study the possible risks. ”

“ok！”

“.......”