Xia Yu said slowly: "Sir Carter, you should know that in the second half of the seventies, because of the changes in the world economy, there was a new development in international banking, so a few years ago, banks in various countries began to implement international strategies in order to compete for opportunities. “

Duke Carter Howard bowed his head slightly in approval, which is true.

It is precisely because of this change that Lloyds Bank has made a strategic adjustment, focusing on the international market from the United Kingdom, hoping to use the money of Middle Eastern tycoons to rapidly expand Lloyds Bank.

It can be said that four years ago, Lloyds Bank was basically operating in the United Kingdom, and the British business accounted for 90% of Lloyds Bank, and the remaining 10% was basically contributed by the markets of Commonwealth member countries such as Canada and Australia, and there was almost no business in Asia, Latin America, Africa and other places.

Xia Yu continued: "There is nothing wrong with Lloyds Bank entering the international market, because with the integration of the global economy, it is difficult for Lloyds Bank to become one of the world's largest banks by relying on the domestic business in the UK, and it will even be left far behind. “

"But the crux of the problem is that Lloyds Bank due to strategic mistakes, did not understand the situation and wantonly expanded, just to compete for the market, but relaxed the risk control, and now Lloyds Bank has planted a big bomb, according to the current international economic situation, at most a year and a half, Lloyds Bank's bomb will explode. “

"And there are two bombs, which are loans to Latin American countries and loans in the field of commercial real estate. ”

Duke Carter Howard's eyes froze, his brows furrowed, and he looked at Xia Yu seriously and asked, "Xia Yu, are you sure? Give me a reason!"

Xia Yu questioned Lloyds Bank's strategic mistakes, and Duke Carter Howard did not refute it at the first time, because he knew Xia Yu's strength in the financial field, and he didn't care whether it was right or wrong, but he was definitely qualified to say such things.

He also knows that Lloyds Bank has indeed made great strides in recent years, and relying on the influence of the United Kingdom and major families in Latin American countries, Lloyds Bank has taken a lot of shortcuts and grabbed a lot of business, making Lloyds Bank's total loan business in Latin American countries rank second, second only to Barclays.

As for commercial real estate loans, because of the physical collateral, Lloyds Bank's lending is relatively large and loose, and commercial real estate loans are now an important business of Lloyds Bank.

It can be said that these two businesses are developed after strategic adjustment, and the growth rate is the most obvious, which are the two pillars of Lloyds Bank's business, which are very important.

But it was precisely because it was too important that he had to pay more attention to Xia Yu's words.

Xia Yu nodded heavily and said with great certainty: "Of course, this is the result of my research and that of my think tank, and I judge that Latin American countries have walked on the edge of the cliff without knowing it, and they are already destined to have a sovereign debt crisis!"

"Sovereign debt crisis!"

After this word came out of Xia Yu's mouth, Duke Carter Howard's expression was instantly solemn, and he asked, "How did you judge it?"

The sovereign debt crisis is no joke, and if it does happen, all the banks involved will be unlucky.

What is sovereign debt?

It refers to the debt that a country borrows from the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank, or from other countries and banks with its sovereignty as a guarantee.

The reason why Latin America's sovereign debt attracts so many financial institutions is that all financial institutions believe that the sovereignty and credibility of Latin American international countries are sufficient to lend to them without losing money.

Just like Reston, the chairman of Citibank in the United States, once said: "The country will never go bankrupt!"

This sentence is taken as a standard by major banks and financial institutions.

This aspect is somewhat similar to the purchase of US Treasury bonds by later generations, believing that the United States will never go bankrupt.

Another reason why banks lend to Latin American countries is that they have too much money in their hands and have to find a place to spend it, and Latin America's sovereign debt seems to be the most stable.

Because the price of oil rose sharply in 1973-1974, the income of oil-exporting countries soared, and these countries deposited huge oil revenues in major European banks, and Europe and the United States fell into an economic quagmire, which is not something that money can solve, so the major banks will invest money in developing countries to make money.

After all, if there is a sovereign debt crisis, then the country's credibility will be bankrupt, which will cause the collapse of the country's financial system, and even affect the international financial system.

Not to mention that Lloyds Bank is also lending very hard.

Seeing that Sir Carter Howard paid attention, Xia Yu paused and said slowly: "Sir Carter, we have counted some data from Latin American countries, and I will tell you first." ”

"In 1971, Mexico's debt was only $5 billion, but by this year, Mexico's debt has risen to $71 billion. ”

"But last year, Mexico's GDP was only $112 billion, which means that the debt balance was 63.4 percent of Mexico's GDP!"

"Mexico's economy grew at 8.3 percent last year, far below the growth rate of debt. ”

"At this rate, the debt balance will become a larger and more significant share of Mexico's GDP, and the leverage will be higher!"

"Mexico occupies an important position in the Latin American economic system, even in Mexico, Brazil, Peru, Argentina and other countries are in a similar situation, if not worse. ”

"However, due to last year's oil crisis, serious domestic inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve began to implement a tight monetary policy, and forced a large amount of capital to flow out of Latin America, prompting a change in the debt structure of Latin American countries, the proportion of short-term debt is rising, and the proportion of short-term station services in Mexico has increased by 10% in just half a year. As a result, Mexico's short-term debt service pressure is increasing. ”

"The Fed's monetary tightening has also strengthened the dollar, forcing commodity prices to fall, and countries in Latin America and other countries are extremely dependent on commodities for exports, which means that Latin America and other countries are getting lower and lower in export revenues and the balance of payments is becoming more and more unbalanced. ”

"The reversal of international capital flows, the rapid increase in the scale of short-term debt, but the balance of payments of Latin American countries is beyond their means, and debt default is inevitable. ”

"But as long as the Fed's tightening monetary policy is not lifted, the situation in Latin America and other countries will get worse and worse, until they finally have to default on their sovereign debts." ”

......

"Sir Carter, do you think the Fed will give up? The United States is now suffering from serious inflation, and Paul Volcker will absolutely not give up tightening monetary policy for the sake of America's economic recovery and before the United States gets out of its predicament, and no one can interfere! The United States needs the blood of the world to transport nutrients for it. ”

"Whether it's the major American conglomerates, or the Jews in the United States, what is needed is a strong America to ensure their safety!"

The last sentence made Duke Carter Howard's face more and more grim.

He had already listened to Xia Yu's words, and the more he thought about it, the more he felt reasonable, and he also knew that Xia Yu was right.

The interests of the United States are the interests of the Jews, and the Jews have a decisive force at the top of the United States, and only when the United States is strong, the Jews of the United States can use the strength of the United States to ensure the security of Israel and the security of the world's Jews.

Xia Yu is also aware of Jewish influence on the U.S. financial system, especially the Federal Reserve.

From 1951 until his rebirth, except for 1978-1979, when he was not a Jew as Fed chairman, every other Fed chairman was Jewish!

"Sir Carter, now the major banks and financial institutions only know how to lend, just like Lloyd's Bank, they have been paralyzed by the days of lying down to make money, and now the sooner you run, the better, if you wait for another half a year, there will definitely be financial institutions to come back to their senses, and it will be difficult to get out at that time. ”

Duke Carter Howard nodded solemnly, and suddenly asked: "What you said is very reasonable, I will secretly arrange someone to study it and make a decision when the time comes." ”

"By the way, didn't you say you had an offer?

The corners of Xia Yu's mouth raised slightly, and he said with a light smile: "Isn't Barclays still investing in Latin America on a large scale? I heard that Barclays Bank has robbed Lloyds Bank of a lot of business in Latin America, and as the largest bank in the United Kingdom, Barclays Bank definitely has the strength to eat all the business of Lloyds Bank." ”

"With Barclays' current behavior, it is absolutely unaware of the crisis, as long as Lloyds Bank is willing to transfer its business, I believe Barclays will be happy to take over. ”

Hearing this, Duke Carter Howard's eyes became deep, and he glanced at Xia Yu deeply, and his impression of Xia Yu changed dramatically.

I can't see it, Xia Yu is sven on the surface, but he is very fierce when calculating people, and his methods are old and spicy, and he has a strong sense of revenge, whoever provokes him is unlucky.

The Rothschild family calculated against him, but before he showed his fangs, Xia Yu directly dug a big pit for the Rothier family, or the kind of pit that would completely bury Barclays Bank if he was not careful.

Barclays is the largest bank in Latin America in terms of loan volume, while Lloyds is the second.

If both of these are owned by Barclays, then there is no other bank in the UK or even Europe that can compete with Barclays.

But if there is a real thunderstorm and a sovereign debt crisis occurs, then Barclays Bank will have to peel off its skin if it does not die, and the Rothschild family will have to be greatly damaged!

PS: I worked overtime late, and I didn't finish writing until half past two, asking for a ticket!