Chapter 89: Stockholm
Wall Street, USA.
Stanley Druckenmiller gently rotated the pen in his hand and fixed his eyes on the computer on the desk.
ISK 5.8135 sells 666
ISK 5.8145 sells 666
ISK 5.8148 sells 666
......
ISK 5.8235 sells 666
......
666?
What does that mean?
Druckenmiller fell into deep thought.
He has been paying attention to the financial markets of European countries since he discussed with Soros and set his sights on Europe, and recently, there have been sudden changes in the Finnish market, first the stock market has continued to plummet and soared, and then the price of the Finnish mark has been suppressed, which has made Druckenmiller very interested.
404!
4044444
666
And then to 66666666
Whenever there is a string of meaningless but identical numbers in the market, the price of the Finnish mark is flooded.
Druckenmiller just felt that the meaning of the numbers was interesting, and with experience and intuition, he could guess and see that there were people who had the same opinion as him and put it into action.
As for 404 or 666.
Perhaps, that guy is a believer in the devil.
Isn't it?
Otherwise, why would it be 666 and not 999.
But it didn't matter, what really made Druckenmiller ponder was how much profit he could make from it.
rkka, 4.5855 sells 666
......
In twenty minutes, the Finnish mark has fallen by ten percent, but now, the size of the Quantum Fund's position in the Finnish mark is not very large, and if it follows up at this time, God knows if it will make a wedding dress for others.
SEK .....
Between 1870 and 1970, Sweden experienced a century of rapid economic growth, transforming from one of the poorest countries in Europe to the fourth richest country in the world.
The reason is that during the "golden age of European liberalism", Sweden implemented extensive market-oriented reforms, which laid the institutional foundations for lasting economic prosperity; During the ensuing two world wars, Sweden remained out of the way, leaving its industrial base unscathed while the industrial facilities of other European countries were severely damaged or even reduced to rubble.
Not only that, but relying on the military industry and advanced manufacturing, Sweden has made a lot of money when other countries are injured.
After World War II, the welfare state system was established and expanded in Sweden.
In particular, at the end of the 60s, there was a marked change in the direction of the political winds, and the governments of the Western world, under the dominance of Keynesianism, generally intervened in the economy and society.
In the 50s and 70s of the 20th century, the Swedish model achieved remarkable results that attracted the attention of other countries not only in terms of significant economic performance, but also in terms of social performance.
Thus, in the 1970s and 1980s, Sweden's welfare state began a period of almost frenzied expansion, with the social benefits provided by the government expanding in scope and almost all social benefits being open to citizens almost "free" and equally.
Free medical care, free education, and even free pensions.
But the relationship between the market economy, social welfare, and government is a very complex process, and the logic of jurisprudence, economics, ethics, and social psychology all require participation, not to mention the political and ideological discourse.
As an empirical science, economics focuses on the efficiency of institutional arrangements, and "justice" is mainly a topic of ethics and social psychology.
However, the logic of economics cannot be ignored, because when economic efficiency is sacrificed too much, no matter how tempting the values that are celebrated, such a system is ultimately unsustainable.
The public is also unfair, and the unfair is the public.
In the process of economic development, if there are not enough resources to support the free of charge, the balance will tilt.
When the products or services that cover a wider and wider range of social welfare are provided by the government as social welfare to the citizens almost free of charge, on the one hand, the government needs to charge the citizens an average tax rate of more than 50% to finance the production of these public services, and on the other hand, while bearing such a tax burden, the demand for these services must be greatly encouraged because the enjoyment of welfare has become a national right.
As a result, the production of such services has to expand accordingly, and while fiscal pressures continue to increase, the efficiency of the provision of public services must be undermined by the lack of effective incentives, and the growth of the public service sector means that more and more scarce resources are diverted from private production to the production of social welfare, thus distorting the allocation of resources at the level of industrial structure.
Based on basic economic principles, it is conceivable that the long-term consequences of a Swedish-style welfare state system will inevitably be inefficient resource allocation, distorted and weakened economic incentives, and a deteriorating government fiscal position.
Since resources, including people's time and energy, are scarce, the principles of competition and opportunity cost always come into play.
There is no such thing as a "free lunch".
Moreover, when social welfare is almost "free" and open to the people on an equal footing, there is another price for those who enjoy rights, that is, the price of waiting in line, and many people with power and relationship resources will certainly be encouraged.
The logic is simple and straightforward, and it is not difficult to imagine the economic consequences of the welfare state model by grasping the principle of relative prices and understanding the concepts of opportunity cost and economic rent.
In two decades, Sweden's government deficit has grown dramatically, and in 1985 alone, the country's debt increased tenfold compared to 1975.
At the same time, inflation remains high and the Swedish krona has repeatedly depreciated in order to boost exports, exacerbating the inflationary situation. Before and after the G10 signing of the Washington Accord, the krona depreciated by 3 per cent in 1976, by 6 per cent in 1977, then by 10 per cent in 1981, and then by 16 per cent in 1982.
Until 1991, the krona was unilaterally linked to Egypt and implemented a fixed exchange rate system.
With his eyes closed, Druckenmiller opened his eyes, and a fine light flashed across his brown eyes.
Sweden and Finland faced the same capital flow problem in Europe, and after reunification, Germany continued to raise interest rates and the value of the mark continued to rise.
Since Sweden is unilaterally affiliated with Eju, and the core weight of Eju is the Deutsche mark, it is transmitted to Sweden through Sweden's fixed exchange rate, which further raises Swedish interest rates.
But the long-term high welfare has overdrawn Sweden's potential, causing the Swedish economy to show signs of crisis, and in order to prevent the crisis, the Swedish government proposed tax reform in early '91.
At the same time, the central bank raised the bank interest rate to implement a tighter monetary policy.
With the tightening of the currency, the stock market plummeted by 30 percent, and real estate prices also fell by 25 percent.
ISK 5.8545 sells 666
.....
Looking at the krona trend on the computer, Druckenmiller did not hesitate any longer and decisively picked up the phone.
Dudu –
The phone rang twice and was answered.
"John. It's me, Stanley. I need you to open a position on the Swedish krona. ”
"Yes. Short selling. Five billion dollars. ”
“......”
What is a fixed exchange rate?
A fixed exchange rate is a fixed exchange rate in which the exchange rate of one country's currency is basically fixed with another country's currency, but in fact, a fixed exchange rate does not mean that the exchange rate is completely fixed, but fluctuates around a relatively fixed upper and lower limit of parity.
The highest point of the range is called the "upper limit", and the lowest point is called the "lower limit". When the exchange rate rises or falls to the upper or lower limit, the central bank takes measures to keep the exchange rate unchanged.
Helkisin, Finland.
Six tall, burly, and extremely muscular looking women stood in the offices of Geman Investment Management in a military posture.
If the Bank of Finland had cried out not long ago, the bank clerk would have recognized one of the women.
There are no coincidences in the world, and there are never coincidences in the general trend.
However, when coincidences become coincidences, it is better to choose to make coincidences a little more coincidental.
It's not a question of being afraid or not.
Irina. Pay attention to safety on the road, and if something is wrong, safety first. ”
"Don't worry, miss. Even if the Finns knew and gave them a hundred guts, they would not dare to touch us, and we did not commit a crime. ”
"That's good. My plane has been arranged, and when I get to the airport, someone will pick you up. ”
"Goodbye, Miss. ”
After saluting, Irina Shayk silently cast a look of pleasement at Shen Jiannan, turned around and left with a few people.
Qi Na and Shen Jiannan were left in the huge room, they knew each other well, and they no longer needed any scruples, Qi Na cheered and pounced on Shen Jiannan.
"My dear. What are we going to do with Sweden now?"
"Lady. Lady. The word fuck can't be spit out of your mouth. ”
“......”