$2 billion?

Or at least?

Chen Geng's brows couldn't help frowning, not to mention this year in 1993, even if it was 20 years or even 30 years later, this is still a huge number, seeing that the MD-12 is showing signs of rising, Chen Geng is a little moved: if the MD-12 can threaten the market position of the Boeing 747, bite a piece of meat from the "hub-hub" intercontinental large wide-body passenger aircraft market, and the business will be done.

After thinking for a long time, Chen Geng finally asked: "According to your calculations, how many MD-12s will have to be produced to achieve breakeven?"

McDonald Jr. had said it once before, but Chen Geng couldn't remember the specific number.

Hearing Chen Geng's question, little MacDonald felt that his heart was about to jump out, and he held back his excitement and said to Chen Geng: "180." ”

"180?" Chen Geng's brows suddenly furrowed.

The reason why he frowned was because Chen Geng remembered another model that competed with the Boeing 747: the break-even point of the Airbus A380 was 440 planes, the Airbus A380, which was also a true double-decker intercontinental airliner, needed to sell 440 planes to achieve breakeven, and McDonnell Douglas's MD-12 needed to sell 180 planes to break even? Although the development time of the two is different, the Airbus A380 was more inflationary when it was developed, but this is too bad, right?

But if you think about it, the reason why the break-even point of the Airbus A380 is so high is because of the high R&D investment of this unprecedentedly huge aircraft, how much does the R&D cost of the Airbus A380?

Up to $25 billion!

It's just scared to death.

With such a large R&D investment, after removing the manufacturing cost of more than 200 million US dollars for a single machine, can the R&D cost be recovered after more than 400 aircraft are manufactured?

Of course, strictly speaking, compared with McDonnell Douglas MD-12 and Boeing 747, Airbus A380 is actually a level higher than them, which can be seen from the maximum take-off weight of these three aircraft: Airbus A380 has a maximum take-off weight of 575 tons, creating the largest take-off weight of a civil aircraft, while the maximum take-off weight of McDonnell Douglas MD-12 under design is only 430 tons, and the latest second-generation Boeing 747, That is, the maximum take-off weight of the Boeing 747-400 is only 396.89 tons, and the MD-12 and Boeing 747 are in the same class.

Therefore, strictly speaking, it is understandable that the R&D cost of Airbus A380 is higher, and since it is a level lower, and there is the accumulation of technology in DC-10, MD-11 and C-17 military transport aircraft in the previous decades, the R&D cost will naturally be reduced exponentially.

But little MacDonald, looking at Chen Geng's frowning brows, thought that Chen Geng was not satisfied with his answer, and hurriedly explained: "2 billion US dollars is already the lowest, even if Boeing, which has experience in manufacturing such large passenger aircraft, is asked to develop such an aircraft, the research and development cost cannot be lower than this figure......"

"That's not what I'm talking about," Chen Geng waved his hand: "What I'm worried about is this break-even point...... Even if it can be pre-sold 50 units, it would be good. ”

"50 planes?" McDonald Jr. sighed and smiled bitterly: "Even if I can sign an order for 50 planes, I don't worry about it." ”

Chen Geng blinked, thought about it carefully, and finally understood what McDonald Jr. meant: If McDonnell Douglas can get an order for 50 MD-12s, even if it is just an intention order, the project will be up, as long as it works well, it will not be difficult to reach the break-even point of 180 aircraft, but the question is, where can McDonnell Douglas find these 50 orders?

Chen Geng didn't dare to make such a promise, he sighed: "That's ......"

There was some disappointment in McDonald's eyes: it would be great if Fernandez could say yes.

Chen Geng changed the topic and asked McDonald Jr., "How many orders does MD-11 get now?"

As soon as he said this, McDonald Jr.'s expression became even more gloomy: "62." ”

Hearing this number, Chen Geng couldn't help but sigh: This number is really miserable!

You know, when McDonnell Douglas ambitiously announced the MD-11 program in 1986, they announced that the MD-11 could sell more than 700 units, which removed the bragging component, and everyone, including McDonald Jr., felt that selling 500 MD-11s was not a problem, but with the current order development trend, I am afraid that it is a question whether the total production can reach 250 when the production is finally stopped.

Chen Geng didn't want to care about so much, but when he thought that the banner of MD-11 must not fall, Chen Geng still said to McDonald Jr.: "I think MD-11 must make adjustments." ”

"Huh?" McDonald Jr. was stunned: "Adjustment?

Chen Gengdao: "I remember that the order situation of MD-11 was still good at the beginning, and the reason for the rapid decline in order volume is that many airlines that had previously intended to cancel their orders?"

McDonald Jr. sighed, and although he didn't speak, it was a tacit acquiescence.

Chen Geng didn't intend to pinch McDonald Jr.'s neck to force him to admit it, and said: "I noticed that like DC-10, MD-11 had several accidents, and I believe that the reason why major airlines cancel orders has a lot to do with the fact that MD-11 is highly similar to DC-10 in terms of aerodynamic layout, so if MD-11 wants to sell well, DC-10 must be readjusted/ The most criticized aspect of the MD-11 is that it was a three-engine game, from three to two, or four, but I prefer to change to two, i.e. keep only the two engines under the wings. ”

"What are you kidding?" little McDonald exclaimed in surprise, he felt that Chen Geng was simply crazy: "The design of the MD-11 requires that its total thrust must reach at least 800KN, either using four engines such as JT9D-219, RB211 or early CF6, or using the current three CF6-80 or PW4000, but using four engines is not economical at all, twin-engine?" Now there is simply no single engine capable of reaching a maximum thrust of 400KN, and the 3 release bureau was determined by us after a long discussion......"

"Then reduce the maximum take-off weight and reduce the maximum range," McDonald Jr.'s words were not finished, Chen Geng interrupted him and said: "Airbus's A330 is a double launch, the wingspan of the A330 is about the same as the MD-11, and the fuselage length is also about the same as the MD-11, although the maximum take-off weight of the Airbus A330 is more than 30 tons lighter than the MD-11, but a CF6-80 engine weighs?

In this way, will the safety issue of the MD-11 and DC-10, which is most highly criticized, be solved soon?"

“......”

Little MacDonald's head jumped as he listened: Can you still do this?

"Why can't you do this?" Chen Geng said angrily: "You also know that A330 and A340 are a pair of sister models, the double-engine, shorter range A330 is responsible for flying transatlantic flights, and the four-engine A340 is responsible for flying transpacific flights, the two share the same avionics system and cockpit, and the crew of the A330 can immediately get on the A340 crew as long as they go through a short period of simple training, and vice versa. How recognized is the A340 as a sister model?

Since the airlines have all approved it, I wonder, why don't you follow along? Aren't you making airplanes to make money, but to force airlines and users to adapt to your habits? In my opinion, the MD-11 can also develop a twin engine and a four-engine sister model, is it difficult for the MD-11 to change to a twin engine and a four-engine model? I don't need to, the fuselage and main wing don't need to be changed at all, it's nothing more than to redesign the vertical tail after removing the engine in the tail, and the great thing is to rematch the flat tail, how much can it cost?

But as long as the match is made, the order for up to 20 aircraft will be replenished, right?"

“......”

Little MacDonald couldn't say a word, but his heart felt like a river and a sea.

Airbus A3330 and A340 sister models have just been launched to win a large number of orders, once made themselves envious, and sighed why this kind of good thing did not fall on his head, and McDonnell Douglas is even more unsmooth, but now listening to Chen Geng say this, he suddenly felt stupid: yes, although such a change, the entire amount of work is not small, but compared to re-developing and designing a new aircraft, in fact, it really doesn't cost much, and, such a simple and simple truth, why didn't I think of it before？

It's not that McDonald Jr. didn't think of it before, it's just that the person who made this suggestion was not Chen Geng.

After the initial shock, McDonald Jr. took a deep breath: "Fernandez, do you think it's really feasible to do this?"

Chen Geng smiled and said: "You shouldn't ask me this question, you should first organize an analysis team to make the cost of such an improvement, and see how much a twin-engine MD-11 costs, how much does a 4-engine long-range intercontinental type cost, compared with the original MD-11, where is the competitive advantage and fuel economy advantage of the new model, and how much the procurement cost changes." Then take this information and invite the relevant persons in charge of each airline to come over and let them see your sincerity, won't this problem be solved?"

McDonald Jr.: "Uh......"

"In addition, I would like to give you a piece of advice, don't ignore the old customers," Chen Geng continued: "If it is technically feasible and the cost allows, you had better consider the need to upgrade for the old customers at the beginning of the design, and directly cover the previous DC-10, even if it is just to change the three engines to the two engines......

McDonald Jr. hurriedly interrupted Chen Geng's words and said, "What do you mean, do you mean to change the previous DC-10 to a twin?"

"What's wrong with this?" Chen Geng looked at Little McDonald and said: "In fact, I think the modification of DC-10 is a big business, I don't know how many airlines are reluctant to retire DC-10, and at the same time tremble at DC-10's poor flight record, if you launch a paid upgrade package, I guess they are the happiest." ”

Paid to upgrade to a dual-engine system for customers who are still using the DC-10?

Little Macdonald's heart only had two big words: "it!"!

It's just that at the same time, McDonald Jr.'s heart is very unassuming: until the time of discontinuation, more than 1,000 DC-10s were produced in total, and now they have not been out of production for a few years, which means that there are still thousands of DC-10s in normal operation on the market, excluding the cargo type that does not care about this modification, those passenger DC-10s are McDonnell Douglas' potential customers, even if half of them choose to modify the DC-10......

Not only that, McDonald Jr. also drew inferences: the older DC-10 can be modified, and the MD-11, which has just been sold for a few years, can also be modified? In this way, McDonnell Douglas not only avoids accusations, but also creates an image of "being responsible for customers", tsk......

A glittering saliva ran from the corners of MacDonald's mouth: he found out that it was going to be a lot of money!

Little MacDonald, who finally reacted, was a little annoyed: "Why didn't you say it earlier?"

——————————————

PS: Sorry brothers, please wait a few minutes.

Chen Geng smiled and said: "You shouldn't ask me this question, you should first organize an analysis team to make the cost of such an improvement, and see how much a twin-engine MD-11 costs, how much does a 4-engine long-range intercontinental type cost, compared with the original MD-11, where is the competitive advantage and fuel economy advantage of the new model, and how much the procurement cost changes." Then take this information and invite the relevant persons in charge of each airline to come over and let them see your sincerity, won't this problem be solved?"

McDonald Jr.: "Uh......"

"In addition, I would like to give you a piece of advice, don't ignore the old customers," Chen Geng continued: "If it is technically feasible and the cost allows, you had better consider the need to upgrade for the old customers at the beginning of the design, and directly cover the previous DC-10, even if it is just to change the three engines to the two engines......

McDonald Jr. hurriedly interrupted Chen Geng's words and said, "What do you mean, do you mean to change the previous DC-10 to a twin?"

"What's wrong with this?" Chen Geng looked at Little McDonald and said: "In fact, I think the modification of DC-10 is a big business, I don't know how many airlines are reluctant to retire DC-10, and at the same time tremble at DC-10's poor flight record, if you launch a paid upgrade package, I guess they are the happiest." ”

Paid to upgrade to a dual-engine system for customers who are still using the DC-10?

Little Macdonald's heart only had two big words: "it!"!

It's just that at the same time, McDonald Jr.'s heart is very unassuming: until the time of discontinuation, more than 1,000 DC-10s were produced in total, and now they have not been out of production for a few years, which means that there are still thousands of DC-10s in normal operation on the market, excluding the cargo type that does not care about this modification, those passenger DC-10s are McDonnell Douglas' potential customers, even if half of them choose to modify the DC-10......

Not only that, McDonald Jr. also drew inferences: the older DC-10 can be modified, and the MD-11, which has just been sold for a few years, can also be modified? In this way, McDonnell Douglas not only avoids accusations, but also creates an image of "being responsible for customers", tsk......

A glittering saliva ran from the corners of MacDonald's mouth: he found out that it was going to be a lot of money!

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