Soon, the dishes were ready, and under Bao Yugang's greeting, Xia Yu took Li Qian to the table.

During the banquet, Bao Yugang's family was very enthusiastic, Xia Yu ate a sumptuous dinner with a smile on his face, and did not talk about superfluous things halfway, that is, he simply chatted about homely things, Xia Yu knew that Bao Yugang was planning to talk to him about things after dinner, and he was happy to do so.

After a full meal, the nanny took the meal down and a group of people came to the living room to drink tea.

Bao Xiangrong found a reason and called Li Qian to her room to chat, and in a blink of an eye, only Xia Yu and Bao Yugang Weng's son-in-law were left in the living room.

After Wu Guangzheng filled the teacup for Xia Yu, Bao Yu just took a sip of tea and put down the teacup, and let out a long breath, Xia Yu realized that it was time to get down to business, he leaned forward slightly and made a listening posture.

Bao Yugang smiled and said, "Xia Sheng, I actually want to ask you for advice this time, and please don't hesitate to give me advice!"

"Bao Sheng is polite, please say, I must know everything, and I will say everything!"

Xia Yu said with a smile on his face.

"Haha, Xia Sheng is atmospheric, then I will ask cheekily. ”

Bao Yugang said with a hearty smile, then smiled slightly, and asked: "Xia Sheng, I read every issue of your "Jiuding Daily", the articles and news on it are of very high quality, and I can't find a better newspaper in Xiangjiang." ”

"Thank you!"

Bao Yugang first flattered Xia Yu to make a foreshadowing, and Xia Yu smiled and said thank you.

"Today's newspaper wrote about the analysis of the Xiangjiang transportation market, written very incisive and detailed, after reading I have benefited a lot, but I have some questions in my heart, you also know that the situation of the world shipping market in recent years is not good, how do you judge that shipping will rise?"

Bao Yugang said slowly, and looked at Xia Yu with burning eyes after speaking.

In fact, this is a euphemism, in fact, after reading this article, Bao Yugang thought about it all day, which conflicted with his point of view!

He judged that in the next few years, or even more than ten years, the shipping market will be sluggish, and the global shipping market will enter a depression, but the view of "Jiuding Daily" is exactly the opposite of his judgment.

Although Bao Yugang believes in his own judgment, judging from the quality of "Jiuding Daily" all along, it is impossible for the article to be targeted, so Bao Yugang wants to know the deep-seated reasons to see if he has ignored something.

Not only Bao Yugang, but Wu Guangzheng also pricked up his ears, wanting to know Xia Yu's views and opinions, after all, this is too important!

"Bao Sheng, I'll get an axe from the class, let's talk about my humble opinion, please don't be surprised if you don't say it well!"

Xia Yu said modestly.

"Xia Sheng doesn't have to be modest, please!"

Bao Yugang said with a smile, then made a gesture of please, and then made a gesture of listening.

"Actually, this article is not right!"

Xia Yu pondered for a moment and said slowly, Bao Yugang and Wu Guangzheng suddenly frowned.

Without waiting for them to ask, Xia Yu continued: "Bao Sheng, you should know very well that the shipping industry has cycles, and throughout hundreds of years, the cycle of prosperity and crisis in the shipping industry has basically occurred once every 10 years, and has followed an extremely similar trajectory. ”

Bao Yugang nodded in agreement, he knew this very well, he had experienced it once before, and he still remembered it!

After World War II to the mid-to-late 60s, the boom and recession cycles of the global shipping market were relatively short, and the entire shipping market was in a stage of low hovering and turbulent consolidation. Until 1967, when the Arab-Israeli war broke out and Israel occupied the Sinai Peninsula, the Suez Canal became a frontier position, and the canal was closed for eight years.

In addition, in the late 60s, the world's industrial trade was also in a boom period, and the global maritime trade volume soared by leaps and bounds during this period, soaring from 1.81 billion tons in 1966 to 3.23 billion tons in 1973, an increase of 78%, and the global demand for ships in seven years was larger than the total demand in the nearly 20 years after World War II. Despite the rapid expansion of shipbuilding, the capacity is still in short supply, and it is difficult to find a ship in the market. The shipping industry quickly became the most promising and lucrative industry at the time, and banks jumped into the shipping industry. Therefore, the late 60s is also known as the golden age of the development of the global shipping market, but the hidden dangers are also buried, in 1970-1971 a second-hand VLCC was about 26 million US dollars, but by 1972 it rose to 61 million - 73.5 million US dollars, the price almost tripled.

However, in the summer of 1973, the Fourth Middle East War broke out, and the Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to impose an oil embargo on Israel and related countries, and sharply raised the price of crude oil, causing the price of crude oil to more than triple, and eventually triggering a global economic crisis.

The reduction in demand for oil imports has hit oil transportation, one of the important components of shipping, hard, and freight rates collapsed instantly, with the VLCC freight rate plummeting to around 80S in December, a drop of nearly 75%. In addition, rising oil prices have exacerbated the global recession, which has affected every corner of the shipping industry, including the dry bulk and container shipping markets, as well as the newbuilding and second-hand ship markets.

Since then, the shipping market has entered a long period of recession, and although there has been a brief recovery and recovery, the downward trend has not substantially eased. For example, the price of a 200,000-ton oil tanker built in 1970 was about 52 million US dollars in 1973, but it fell to 5 million US dollars in 1977, a decline of 90% in less than 4 years.

It can be said that the past few years have been very difficult, and Bao Yugang has also relied on the size advantage to reduce costs and survive and develop in this difficult environment.

This cold winter made Bao Yugang clearly recognize the situation of the world shipping market, and he was also pessimistic about the future of shipping, and he already had plans to go ashore.

But in this case, "Jiuding Daily" actually said clearly that the cold winter of the shipping market has passed, and spring is coming, how can this not make Bao Yugang's heart shake?

"Baosheng, there are too many idle ships on the market now, whether it is a new shipbuilding or a second-hand ship, they are waiting for someone to take over, in this case, it is difficult to pull up the freight rate. ”

"But Bao Sheng, you have been running all over the world all year round, especially passing through the Middle East, I don't know how you feel about it?"

Xia Yu asked suddenly.

Bao Yugang stared at it, and immediately understood Xia Yu's potential meaning, and instead said, "You mean that the Middle East is unstable?"

"You should know better than me that the United States and the Soviet Union are vying for hegemony, the Middle East is an important point of contention, and it is also a bottomless quagmire, where there are a bunch of restless masters, Israel is a-stirring stick, stirring up the wind and rain; Iraq is also ambitious, and other countries such as Iran and Arabia are not the masters who keep to themselves, each with their own minds, but this place is still the oil heart of the world, and the interests are intertwined, and it is easy to misfire if you are not careful. ”

"Since World War II, have there been fewer wars in the Middle East? If the Middle East fights again, the consequences can be imagined!"

Xia Yu said slowly.

"If this really happens, then the shipping market will not be even more miserable?

Wu Guangzheng looked at Xia Yu puzzled and asked.

Xia Yu didn't say, but looked at Bao Yugang, Bao Yugang frowned and thought about it, and said slowly: "No, it will look up, there are a dozen in the Middle East, oil prices are rising, and the business of oil tankers will definitely be more difficult, but factories around the world can't stop, and if you can't burn oil, you can burn more affordable coal, and the business of coal ships will be very good at that time." ”

"But the difficulty of transporting coal is greater than that of transporting oil, the port will definitely be congested, and with the addition of dry bulk freight, it is very likely to rise!"

"It's just that this good times will definitely not last long, and it will be prosperous for a few years at most!"

Bao Yugang shook his head and said affirmatively. He still didn't say a word, that is, this can only be achieved under the premise of hypothetical occurrence, and if the Middle East is not chaotic, even if it is prosperous for a few years, don't think about it.

"That's right, that's why I'm right or wrong, it will prosper, but it's part of the market other than the oil tankers, and it won't prosper for many years. ”

"It's just that I don't need people to write these out, Bao Sheng, you should also understand why. ”

Xia Yu said calmly.

Bao Yugang nodded in understanding.

Xia Yu wants to use public opinion to influence the stock price of Jardine Air Cargo Terminal Company, so it is natural to be as unfavorable as possible to air transportation, so it is only possible to tell the good news of shipping, and it is impossible to tell the bad news.

"Hey!"

After Wu Guangzheng pondered and understood, he couldn't help but sigh, Bao Yugang glanced at him, and didn't say anything about him, because Bao Yugang knew why his son-in-law sighed.

"Bao Sheng, take the liberty of asking, do you want to go ashore?"

Xia Yu hesitated for a moment and asked.

As soon as Xia Yu's words came out, Bao Yugang pondered for a long time, nodded slowly and said, "Yes, I have this idea." ”