For more than a week, the price of copper in London fell slightly after falling below the 60-day moving average, and the daily decline was not large. However, last night, the decline suddenly expanded, falling by $175 in one day, a decline of 2.16%, this long black candle is particularly prominent, making the price of London copper suddenly far away from the 60 moving average, there is a trend of accelerating decline.

Such a trend will definitely have a great impact on the price of domestic futures copper. Li Xin has a vague feeling in his heart that the 60-day moving average, which has been difficult to break through during this time, may be broken today.

Sure enough, the opening price of futures copper was 62,310 yuan, although this opening price was only 100 yuan lower than yesterday's closing price. However, after the opening, the price was entangled back and forth above 62,310 yuan for half an hour, and by 9:45 a.m., it began to fall lower than one wave. By the end of the afternoon, the price finally closed at the lowest point of the day at 61,700 yuan, breaking through the long-stalemate 60 moving average in one fell swoop.

The most important thing is that in the course of today's all-day trading, the bulls did not form any effective counterattack, and it was basically a unilateral downward market. After the London copper price fell below the 60 moving average, the impact of the rapid decline in prices on domestic futures prices has gradually begun to appear.

Li Xin, who had made up his mind to increase his position as soon as the price broke the 60 moving average of 62,000 yuan, did not find an opportunity to open a position in today's unilateral decline. He has a lot of trading experience, and he knows that it is very dangerous to chase up and down, and the best opportunity to continue to increase his position is to wait for the price to pull back before entering the market. Otherwise, chasing the low and shorting, a rebound in the price will make you very embarrassed. This is the same as the risk of chasing up, if the entry point is not good, once the price pulls back, the floating loss on the book will often make their mentality change, and question whether the judgment they have just made is correct. In many cases, it is because of this kind of questioning that arises from the beginning that the judgment I made is not carried out in good condition, and a very good opportunity is wasted.

Such a situation has arisen more than once before, and in this regard he has almost developed a conditioned reflex.

Especially this time, the estimated total position is very heavy, and it occupies a lot of funds, and he is afraid that if there is a mistake, he will lose more than half of his hard-earned money, which is the last thing he wants to see.

On July 25, the copper price fell again by 680 yuan, and the closing price has reached 61,020 yuan. Such a trend is obviously an accelerated downward trend, which is very similar to the trend of London copper falling below the 60-day moving average and then rapidly falling away from the 60-day moving average.

According to his own judgment, the price will fall to 47,000 yuan at the lowest, and compared with this price, the price of more than 60,000 yuan now shows that the decline has just begun.

In such a large decline, there will be entanglements and repetitions when the downward market starts. On the one hand, because of the game between the long and short sides, the bulls will not easily give up resistance in this position. This is actually the same as the shape on the battlefield, as long as there is no winner in the end, then in front of any line of defense, the attacker and the defender will do their best to fight.

Another reason is that they are still looking for opportunities to continue to increase their positions, so the bears with stronger and more determined funds than themselves will continue to expand their positions in the process of repeated competition at the start of the market, in order to obtain the maximum profit after the market price breaks down in the future.

After falling sharply for two consecutive days, the price trend of futures copper really launched a small rebound as Li Xin expected. On the fourth day, July 31, the price rose to a maximum of 61,770 yuan, which just touched the 10-day moving average, which has crossed the 60-day moving average, which is a typical situation suppressed by the 10-day moving average.

Li Xin stared at the trend of this K-line chart, thinking in his heart: if tomorrow's price breaks through the suppression of the 10-day moving average, then the price will continue to go up, and the next pressure level is the 20-day moving average. However, if the 10-day moving average is not broken, then the price should immediately turn downward.

On the second day, August 1, the price of copper futures opened at 61,450 yuan, which was 320 yuan lower than the closing price of the previous day.

This decline is not very obvious, and in the eyes of ordinary people, this is the normal phenomenon of price fluctuations back and forth.

However, in the view of Li Xin, who has been staring at the price trend changes and has predicted that the price has entered the downward channel, this is a signal that the pullback in the process of falling will start to fall again after encountering the upper pressure line.

Li Xin, who had been waiting for a pullback to find an opportunity to increase his position, knew that this was a great opportunity, so he sold a total of 1,000 short orders on three contracts.

The closing price of the day closed at 61,440 yuan.

On Monday, August 4, the price of copper fell again by 420 yuan, closing at 61,020 yuan.

In Li Xin's eyes, at this time, the K-line chart trend pattern of copper prices has become more and more obvious signs of arc top.

Because from June 17, two months ago, the price of copper began to rise from 61,040 yuan, to a high of 64,830 yuan on July 3, and then from the high point of 64,830 yuan after a month of gradual decline, falling to the current 61,020 yuan.

This section of the trend perfectly formed an arc top, and the price of 61,020 yuan just came to the neckline position of this arc top.

The Arc Top pattern is a pattern with a very fierce downward force, and once formed, it can be very lethal.

Theoretically, the downside of such an arc top is at least the space from the apex to the neckline.

That is to say, the price difference between the apex of 64,830 yuan and the neckline of 61,020 yuan is 3,810 yuan, so the space for falling downward from 61,020 yuan is at least 3,810 yuan, and the short-term low point should fall to at least 57,210 yuan.

However, the trend at this time seems to others to be upward. Because the closing price of copper on August 4 was 61,020 yuan, it returned to the closing point on July 25.

If you only look at it from a technical point of view, many people will think that this point and the low point on July 25 formed a W bottom, which is a relatively solid bottom pattern, and the market will rely on the support of this bottom to expand upward.

However, in Li Xin's view, it was on this day that the 20-day moving average also crossed the 60-day moving average after the 5-day and 10-day moving averages crossed below the 60-day moving average. Coupled with the fact that the opening of the MACD indicator after the high golden cross is getting bigger and bigger, it indicates that copper prices are about to start to accelerate their decline.

Moreover, the candlestick chart for three consecutive days is suppressed by the downward extension of the 10-day moving average, and the highs are decreasing sequentially.

In particular, the closing price on August 4 was even below the 5-day moving average. Even if the bottom of 61,020 yuan can be temporarily supported, if the price wants to rise upward, it will also face heavy pressure from the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages, not to mention the high 60-day moving average.

For the current closing price, the point of the 60-day moving average is 61,990 yuan, which is high above the ceiling, as if it is out of reach.

That is to say, under the pattern of diverging downward from the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages and showing a bearish arrangement, it is almost impossible for copper prices to return to more than 62,500 yuan when Li Xin opened his first position.

Li Xin thought to herself: After all, this is a small double bottom, and the price may be entangled here for a day or two. But if it falls below this 61020 level, the downside will open.

That night, he did nothing, and kept an eye on the trend of London copper futures prices, which is very important for the price trend of domestic futures copper tomorrow.

At 2 o'clock in the evening, after the London copper futures price closed, the stone in Li Xin's heart was completely put down, and he was already confident about tomorrow's futures price trend.

That night, London copper fell sharply by $280, a drop of 3.54%!

Tuesday, August 5th. In the case of a sharp decline in copper prices in London, the copper price in the domestic futures market opened with a gap downward, and the price was 59,600 yuan, a full decline of 1,420 yuan from the closing price of the previous trading day.

The market was full of exclamations!

Yuan Jie: There are also many investors in futures copper in their futures companies.

As soon as the market opened at 9 a.m. that day, there was a bang on the trading floor like a fire, and people immediately shouted.

Yuan Jie, who was sitting in the office, was taken aback, thinking that something had happened, so he quickly got up and walked to the door to poke his head out, and asked into the corridor, "What's wrong?"

After a few seconds, an employee came out of the hall where the customer was trading and replied, "Futures copper prices plummeted at the opening!"

Yuan Jie asked, "Really, how much has it fallen?"

"It should have fallen by 1500 by now. ”

"So much?"

"It's not, some of the customers inside are surprised, and some are regretful, otherwise they wouldn't have made such a big move. ”

"You remember to remind customers to be aware of the risks and not to blow up their positions. ”

"Okay. ”

After Yuan Jie finished speaking, he turned around and returned to the office, opened the market software on the computer, and watched the trend of copper prices.

Li Xin's operation of adding 1,000 short orders again a few days ago is clear to Yuan Jie.

At this time, the funds used in Li Xin's account have reached 200 million. With such a large amount of funds placed on the side of her futures company, Yuan Jie didn't know how happy she was, but at the same time, she had to sweat for Li Xin to hold such a large position.

At the beginning of July, Li Xin's 1,000 futures copper holdings had the largest floating loss of 10 million yuan.