Chapter 550: $250 billion
In fact, before the futures market officially started trading at 9 o'clock in the morning, Li Xin still had a worry in his heart, that is, he was worried that the price of the 8:59 call auction might contain a certain amount of moisture, and after the official start of trading at 9 o'clock, the price of the falling limit was very likely to be broken in the case of the sharp rise in the London copper price and the Dow Jones Industrial Index last Friday.
But this worry gradually dispelled after 9 o'clock. Because with the passage of time, at 9:15, the selling orders in the domestic futures market not only did not decrease, but also continued to increase to about 30,000 lots, and the price was still pressed on the falling limit board at all.
At this time, the London copper price is estimated to be affected by the domestic futures copper price on the fall limit, and the price began to gradually fall from $4,980, once falling back to $4,850, closing out a small black line.
By 3 o'clock in the afternoon, when the domestic futures market closed, copper prices closed at the fall limit without any suspense. At the same time, the London copper price began to gradually rise again, rising to $4,990.
Now the question is to wait and see what happens to the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the opening of the market at 21:30 in the evening.
At 7 p.m., a piece of news appeared on the news that worried Li Xin: the U.S. Treasury Department had spent $250 billion to buy bank shares, of which $125 billion would be injected proportionately into the nine major banks that had the biggest problems in the financial crisis.
Li Xin is now beginning to understand why there will be such a huge fluctuation after the opening of the Dow Jones Industrial Index at 21:30 on Friday night, it turns out that this news was predicted by many international investors in advance, which caused such a big fluctuation in the international financial market. The question now is what kind of impact will such negative news have on the Dow Jones index more than an hour later? Do you want to make a profit at this point? After all, such news is indeed heavy enough, and it is really negative for bears.
At 9:30 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at 8,462, an increase of only 11 points from Friday's close at 8,451. This is a bit uneventful compared to the 6.1% upward trend of the London copper price as soon as it opened today.
However, the news that the U.S. Treasury spent $250 billion to bail out banks that had problems in the financial crisis just now has a very significant impact. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose gradually after the open, and after just 9 minutes, the point rose to 8877 points, an increase of 425 points, or 5.04%, compared with the previous trading day.
Although the increase in the opening price was not large, in just 9 minutes, the increase of this candlestick chart reached 5.04%, showing a feeling of a long white candlestick. Although the Dow Jones index gradually retraced after that, at 22:09 in the evening, the index point retraced to 8753 points, and the increase narrowed to 3.58%. However, stimulated by the heavy news of the Treasury bailing out banks, the Dow Jones index gradually rose from 8753 points after 22:10. At 23:00 in the evening, when Li Xin went to bed, the Dow Jones index had broken through the integer mark of 8900 points and came to 8932 points, an increase of 5.70%.
London copper prices have also extended their gains to 9.53%, led by the rapid rise in the Dow Jones index after the open.
When Li Xin went to bed, she was very nervous. But since he has decided to wait and see for two or three trading days, there is no need to stay up late at the moment. What's more, it's useless to be anxious now, the domestic futures market will open at 9 o'clock tomorrow morning, and everything will have to wait until 9 o'clock tomorrow morning.
Tuesday, October 14th.
At 7 o'clock in the morning, Li Xin woke up early to check the trend of London copper prices and the Dow Jones Industrial Index last night.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed a huge white candlestick last night. Its opening point of 8462 is the lowest point of the day, while the highest point is 9427 and the closing point is 9387. Compared to the previous trading day, it rose by 936 points in one day, an increase of 11.08%.
From September 30 to yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone on a series of rapid declines, and the closing price of the 9 consecutive candlestick charts has been pressed below the 5-day moving average. However, last night's closing point of 9387 points broke through the suppression of the 5-day moving average in one fell swoop and came to the middle of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages.
Judging from the tick chart, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose gradually after 23:00 last night, and finally closed near the highest point, with almost no obvious pullback during the session, showing a sign of a momentum of the bottom rebound.
The trend of London copper prices is in line with the trend of the Dow Jones Industrial Index, its intraday high price is $5180, and the closing price is $5170, almost closing at the highest point, compared with the previous trading day, a sharp increase of $555, or 12.03%.
This increase almost completely reversed the 13.9% decline in the previous trading day. Also a sign of a bottoming out.
Although the highest and lowest prices of this candlestick chart are still pressed below the 5-day moving average of $5,213, this phenomenon makes Li Xin dare not be careless. In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed today at 9387 near its October 9 high. In other words, judging from the candlestick chart, the long white candle, which rose by 11.08% last night, has completely recovered the total 15% decline of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on October 9 and October 10.
Li Xin now has to think about what Xia Xiaona said about the suggestion to close the position and leave the market as soon as possible at a low position.
Before he could think about it, at 8:00 a.m., the London copper price opened.
Copper opened at $5,195 in London, $25 above yesterday's close of $5,170 and above the five-day moving average of $5,159.
Then, the London copper price slowly rose within 10 minutes after the opening, and at around 9:11, the London copper price came to $5,455, almost touching the 10-day moving average of $5,469, and the increase expanded to 5.51%.
Since then, although the London copper price has gradually fallen back to $5,325 under the suppression of the 10-day moving average, compared with yesterday's closing price, the increase is still maintained at about 3%, which is a small white line, and the overall trend shows a continuation of yesterday's rally to continue to rush upward.
Although Li Xin is very worried that the London copper price will continue to rise sharply, he also noticed that the lowest point of $4,570 on October 10 is nearly 16.52% higher than the latest price of $5,325.
Judging from the three-day candlestick chart, the lowest point on October 10 was suppressed below the 5-day moving average, and it was far from the 5-day moving average. Today's latest price of $5,325 stands high above the 5-day moving average, which is also far from the 5-day moving average.
Li Xin, who deals with K-line charts all day long, has a hunch that even if the copper price probed the recent bottom at $4,570, after a sharp rise yesterday and today, the copper price will definitely step back on the previous low, and it is impossible to rise immediately like this V-shaped reversal, which is not logical.
Moreover, even if the US Treasury spends $250 billion to bail out these banks facing bankruptcy in the financial crisis, it will only be a fiscal policy, a rescue measure at a critical juncture. Such measures are unlikely to immediately change the fundamentals of the entire economic downturn, let alone reverse supply and demand in the non-ferrous metals market overnight. As long as this supply-demand relationship is not completely improved, the downward trend of copper prices will continue. Even if it does not make a new low, from the perspective of the general trend, it is a high probability event for copper prices to return to the previous low of $4,570.
In other words, whether it is analyzed from the short-term candlestick chart trend or from the long-term downward trend, it is impossible for London copper prices to continue to rise. In the next three or five trading days, it will definitely return to around $4,570, and it really can't close its short positions in the process of this rapid price rise, because then the price loss is too great.
However, judging from the trend of copper prices in London yesterday and today, as well as the sharp rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Index last night, after the opening of the domestic futures market at 9:00, copper prices will definitely rise sharply.
Because after the close of the domestic futures market at 15:00 yesterday afternoon, copper prices had no way to cope with the rise in London copper prices and the Dow Jones index last night, and this morning London copper prices opened at 8:00 and then rose sharply close to 6%.
Li Xin has prepared for the worst, that is, even if the copper price in the domestic futures market rises to the price limit today, he will not be able to play.
Just like just looking at the trend of London copper prices he came to the conclusion, London copper prices in the day before yesterday after a sharp fall, yesterday and today rose rapidly, which in the K-line chart on the trend clearly shows that the current point below is very empty, even if the price to continue to rise during this bottom period, the correct K-line chart should also be in the next few trading days after stepping back on the previous low, this bottom will be more solid.