Chapter 571: Up or Down (6)
After the Dow opened at 9062 points at 9:30 last night, until 2:00 a.m., its fluctuation range has been oscillating back and forth between 8970~9211 points, and at 2:00 a.m., the Dow's point was 9150 points, up 85 points, or 0.94%.
Under the influence of the rise of the Dow at 2:00 a.m., London copper also closed a white line last night.
Its highest point was $4,696 and its closing point was $4,545, an increase of $345, or 8.21%, which is quite a considerable increase.
What worries Li Xin is the trend of the Dow Jones Industrial Average after 2:00 p.m. last night. Judging from the tick chart, after 2:00 a.m., the Dow fell to 8,943 points at 2:33.
Although the Dow fluctuated higher after that, and rose to a high of 9,341 points by 3:47 a.m., there was a strange scene 13 minutes before the close.
At 3:48 a.m., the Dow Jones index plummeted from its high of 9341 in an instant, and within a dozen minutes, it flowed like a waterfall. By the end of the day at 4 a.m., the Dow had fallen to 8,990, a drop of 0.82%.
Just 13 minutes ago, the Dow Jones rose 276 points, or 3.04%, compared to yesterday's close.
As a rule of thumb, the Dow Jones Industrial Average moves after 2 a.m. can greatly affect the London copper price, which opens at 8:00 a.m. on the second day. Therefore, Li Xin expects that the London copper price, which opened at 8:00 this morning, should fall on the basis of yesterday's closing price. However, when he opened the trend of London copper prices, he found that the London copper price opened at $4,610 this morning, an increase of $65, or 1.43%, from yesterday's closing price of $4,545. And London copper this morning after the gap opened there was no obvious fall, now it is 8:25 in the morning, the price of London copper is 4691 US dollars, compared with today's opening price continued to rise 81 US dollars, at this time the increase is 3.21%.
The bullish candle, which rose 8.21% in London copper prices last night, has reached between the 10-day and 20-day moving averages.
Starting from October 27th, London copper has closed three positive lines in three consecutive days, and the closing point on October 27 is still below the 5-day moving average, but last night's closing point has come to a place close to the 20-day moving average, and this morning's latest price of 4691 has been only one step away from the 20-day moving average of $4745.
The three bullish candlesticks that rise in a row are called red three soldiers in technical analysis, and such a candlestick chart form generally indicates that the price will continue to rise.
Li Xin secretly thought: The trend of copper prices is really strong, no wonder there were so many orders to buy and close positions at a low level yesterday. Judging from the trend of London copper prices, domestic copper prices are likely to continue to rise further today.
Because compared with the London copper price for three consecutive days to close out of the three higher and higher yang lines, the domestic futures market on Monday, October 27 is a falling limit, October 28, although it is not a falling limit, but still fell 2.27%, and yesterday, October 29, Wednesday, although it rose by 20 yuan, an increase of 0.06%, but this trend is three negative lines, compared with the trend of the London copper price red three soldiers appear very weak.
If the domestic market makes up for the rise today, there should be a good increase today. Although judging from yesterday's trend, when copper prices soared sharply, the selling pressure on the upper grade was still very heavy.
However, you must know that the London copper price closed at $3,715 last Friday, October 24, but the closing price last night has reached $4,545, and the upside for three consecutive days has reached $830, an increase of 22.34%.
In the domestic futures market, trading was suspended last Friday, October 24.
Monday, October 27 is a down limit, and the price is 32,540 yuan. Yesterday, Wednesday, October 29, the closing price was 31,820 yuan.
The copper price in the domestic futures market not only did not rise for three consecutive days, but fell by 720 yuan, a decrease of 2.21%.
This is a world away from the 22.34% increase in copper prices in London.
In fact, the day before yesterday, when Li Xin closed the position, he relied on an intuition, he did not analyze the trend of London copper prices in the past three days and the trend of copper prices in the domestic futures market such a huge difference, now carefully analyzed, the results made him break out in a cold sweat.
Now he thinks more that his decision to close the position at a profit the day before yesterday was correct, and he also thinks that the buying orders that surged out near the limit yesterday are very reasonable.
But at the same time, he couldn't figure out what those orders that were sold and closed at a high price yesterday were thinking. If you see such a huge difference between the London copper price and the copper price in the domestic futures market, those orders that were closed at a high level yesterday should be able to be kept.
If the copper price in the domestic futures market follows the London copper price in the next few days, it will be easy to rise by one or two thousand yuan in the short term. Yesterday's longs were sold at a low level to close those orders are obviously a pity.
At 8:59, the call auction was opened, and the opening price was 33,100 yuan, an increase of 1,280 yuan compared with yesterday's price, an increase of 4.02%, and the price limit!
This is a very rare situation since October 6 when the market opens on the up-limit board. The same situation only occurred on October 14, after the opening of that day, the price was sealed on the price limit for two or three minutes, but then the price was immediately suppressed, and the price was far away from the price limit by the time it closed.
However, judging from the situation at that time, in the three days before October 14, the trend of London copper prices and domestic copper prices was not as big as it is now.
That is to say, in the current situation that the copper price in London has risen sharply by 22.34%, the copper price in the domestic futures market today should be sealed on the price limit board for a longer and longer period than on October 14.
Sure enough, after the trading started at 9:00 a.m., the opening price of 33,100 yuan lasted for a long time, and it was not opened until 9:17 a.m.
After the price limit was opened, there was no instant plunge of hundreds or even thousands of yuan yesterday, the magnitude and duration of the decline were also quite limited, the lowest point only fell to 32,970 yuan at 9:21 a.m., and then at 9:22, the price was again sealed at 33,100 yuan.
In the following trading hours, the price never fell below the upper limit, and the price still closed at the upper limit at the time of closing. The trading volume for the whole day was only 18,400 lots, which is a significant decrease from yesterday's volume of 250,000 lots, which indicates that the upper tier of sell and close orders has decreased, while the buy orders piled up below have reached more than 60,000 lots.
Li Xin secretly thought: Feng Shui takes turns, and now it's the bear's turn to come out. After October 6th, in the process of this wave of copper prices falling sharply, the futures price also had a sharp increase and rushed to the daily limit, but by the time it closed, without exception, it fell sharply, and it was the only time that it was sealed on the daily limit when it closed like today. This time, I'm afraid it's the bears' turn to panic.
Friday, October 31st.
In the morning, Li Xin checked the London copper price and the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed last night, and found that after the Dow Jones Industrial Index opened at 9179 points, the highest rushed to 9454 points, and the lowest was 9119 points, closing at 9325 points. It closed a small white candle that rose 144 points, or 1.57%.
Judging from the tick chart, the trend of the Dow Jones last night was very stable, and it was a pattern of gradual gain. Especially at 2:00 a.m., the Dow Jones was 9,360 points, an increase of 1.95%, which is even more than the 4:00 a.m. close.
However, at the same time, the London copper price, which closed at 2:00 a.m., stepped out of a very unexpected long black candle and fell by $345, or 7.59%.
Because the copper price in the domestic futures market closed at 3:00 p.m. yesterday when it closed on the price limit, the London copper price hit a high price of $4,820 at 19:00 last night, which broke through the pressure level of the London copper price 20-day moving average of $4,745.
However, I did not expect that the copper price in the domestic futures market closed on the limit yesterday, and at 2:00 a.m. today, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose, the London copper price fell by 7.59%. Last night's closing of $4,200 fell back below the 10-day EMA, indicating that the pressure on the 20-day EMA is very high.
This made Li Xin a little puzzled: Could it be that the sharp drop in the London copper price at 2:00 a.m. was it because he was worried that the trend of the Dow Jones Industrial Index after 2:00 a.m. would fall sharply like the previous trading day? However, although the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 2:00 a.m. last night, although the increase was slightly narrower than that at 2:00 a.m., it was still up. The Dow rose 1.57%, while London copper fell 7.59%, which is a bit of a twist. What impact will this have on copper prices in the domestic futures market today?