Chapter 555: Wait for Three or Five Days (4)
Li Xin thought about it carefully, and he thought that the price would rise to more than 40,000 yuan in a short period of time after the opening, and such a trend must be a trend created by the bulls in order to raise the price. Because the shorts' closing orders will never do this, and the bears will only make a wedding dress for the bulls.
As for the price rising above 40,000 yuan, it was immediately hit near the opening price of 38,100 yuan in just a few minutes, and such a trend is unlikely to be caused by the bears to continue to increase their positions. Because in the process of rapid price decline, the cost of the bears chasing the lowest price to open a position is very unadvantageous, and it is likely to step on a relatively low price and be trapped for a long time.
In addition, there is only one other explanation: some bulls took advantage of the rising trend of the Dow Jones index and London copper last night to quickly pull up the price of copper as soon as the market opened, and wanted to create a situation in which the price of futures copper rose rapidly from the bottom, so as to destroy the confidence of the bears, and also inspire the confidence of the bulls who were waiting for the low price to enter the market to enter the market.
If they succeed in this move, not to mention the bulls waiting for low prices on the sidelines, they are shorts all the way down and make a lot of profits. If the bulls' dip buy order is also added to it, the rally will be out of control.
But the actual trend of the price proves that this morning's sharp rise in the price of the bulls this idea is a bit too naïve, because counting today's opening close to the price limit, from October 6 has been nearly 8 down limit, before the National Day those bulls have not found a good opportunity to play so far, their cumulative loss is a very unimaginable number.
Such a big loss has made many long investors have all liquidated, because of the continuous price limit, they have no way to get out, and their own losses have been transmitted to the futures companies where they opened accounts. In this case, the futures company will be forced to close the position as long as it sees the down limit being opened. In this kind of situation where once the price rises, the hedged bulls will flock to flee, there is no need for the bears to continue to increase their positions and go down, just the long stop-loss order will make the price continue to plummet.
This is the fundamental reason why the price went from a roller coaster to a high in just a few minutes this morning, and then fell from the highest to the lowest like a roller coaster.
After thinking about this truth, the worry in Li Xin's heart gradually dissipated, and he was now like sitting on a mountain watching the tiger fight, because he knew that the bottom price could not rise, so he calmly watched the price fluctuations back and forth.
From 9:16, the price gradually rose from around today's opening price to 38,900 yuan at 9:34 a.m., narrowing the decline to 2.92%.
However, with the rise in prices, the selling orders emerged again, starting from 9:35 a.m., the price gradually fell from 38,900 yuan to 10:08 a.m., the price fell below the opening price of 38,100 yuan this morning, and finally was pressed on the 38,060 yuan limit.
Perhaps due to the sharp price changes in the past hour after today's opening, the camp of the bears seems to have undergone some changes, and the mentality of some bears began to be impetuous, and after the price was pressed on the down limit again, some bears began to close their positions at this very favorable price and leave.
At 10:30 a.m., the fall limit was broken, although it did not last long, only lasted more than two minutes, and the price only rose to 38,190 yuan before falling again. At 10:32, the price was again pressed back to the down limit. But this momentum makes Li Xin feel that the market outlook seems to be a little bad: if the falling limit can be broken once, there will be a second and third time.
Sure enough, at 10:51 a.m. and 11:03 a.m., the down limit was broken twice, and although the price rose less after breaking through the limit these two times, the repeated breaches of the fall limit indicated that the buying orders near this low level had begun to gradually appear. But the difficulty is that it is impossible to determine whether this part of the buying is a profitable short position to close out of the market, or the bulls are starting to gradually build positions in this place, which part accounts for a larger proportion?
At 13:30 in the afternoon, the opening price of the afternoon market broke through the fall limit for the fourth time, at 13:36, the price has risen to 38,400 yuan, and then there was a small shock callback, and then immediately began to rise, at 13:44, the price rose to 38,580 yuan, after a short callback, at 13:59 it continued to rise to around 38,800 yuan. At this time, the decline narrowed to 3.17%.
Then a dramatic scene appeared, the price rose to 38,800 yuan after the first line, the third time began to gradually pull back, to 14:08 in the afternoon, the price fell to 38,500 yuan line, the exchange suddenly announced the suspension of copper metal trading for 10 minutes.
This is the third time that trading in copper has been suspended recently, and it is also the second time that trading has been suspended for 10 minutes. Today's move is also the suspension of trading in the midst of a correction in price increases, once again clearly showing the intention of the exchange to interfere with the decline in prices.
Today's intraday trend and situation are more complicated than the situation in the past few trading days: first, the trading volume gradually began to expand, and there seems to be a sign of a gradual bottom, and this sign appeared after the price fell below the integer mark of 40,000 yuan. The second is the third suspension of intraday trading by the exchange, and it is the suspension of trading in the process of a pullback after the price rises. Coupled with the obvious negative trend of the external market last night, Li Xin had to start thinking about whether he should also choose an opportunity to play below 40,000 yuan.
However, there is not much trading time left today, especially since the idea of myself came out of thin air and has not been seriously considered, and it seems a little imprudent to close the position and leave the market in the current situation.
He had imagined that even if the bottom of the copper price appeared, it should fluctuate near the bottom for three or five trading days, and he originally imagined that this situation would appear at the line of 41,690 yuan. However, after the line of 41,690 yuan was broken, there are no obvious signs of the bottom, even if today's price of 38,060 yuan is the bottom, there should be a chance to leave the market in the next two or three days.
Before he could figure it out, 10 minutes passed quickly, and after trading started again at 14:18 in the afternoon, the price rose from 38,520 yuan before the cessation of trading, and rose to 38,850 yuan in just two minutes.
In this short two minutes, the price rose by nearly 350 yuan, judging from this trend, the suspension of trading on the exchange still had an upward impact on copper prices, but the magnitude of the impact was not particularly significant, or there was no fundamental change. Because in the subsequent time, the highest price did not break through the line of 38,900 yuan, and hovered back and forth around 38,850 yuan. By 14:34 in the afternoon, the price began to fall gradually from the 38,890 yuan line again.
At this time, there are nearly 25 minutes to close at 15:00 in the afternoon, but the price is getting lower and lower in the last 25 minutes, and by the time the close of 15:00 in the afternoon, the price has fallen to the limit of 38,060 yuan again.
Although the price fell to the limit in the last minute or two before closing, it is very clear that the power of the bears is much greater than that of the bulls. Because the exchange suspended trading again today in an attempt to interfere with the price decline, the price fell from a relatively high position to the lower limit at the close, indicating that the trend of the future market is still bearish.
When the copper price in the domestic futures market fell to the fall limit at about 11:00 a.m., the London copper price also closed at $4,548, which was $57 lower than yesterday's closing price of $4,605, a decrease of 1.24%.
After the domestic futures copper broke through the fall limit in the afternoon, London copper also gradually closed higher, and at 15:00 in the afternoon, when the domestic futures market closed, the London copper price was $4,603.
At 21:30 in the evening, after the Dow Jones index flattened at 8975 points, the index fell to 8731 points in just three minutes, a decrease of 247 points, or 2.76%.
Then the Dow Jones index gradually rebounded from this 8731 mark, and at 21:59 in the evening, the index rose to 8954 points. After some tangled shocks, the index rose to 9043 points at 23:07, which is 64 points higher than yesterday's closing index, an increase of 0.72%.
This was followed by another prolonged wave of shocks, starting at 00:35 a.m., and the index gradually rose from 8959 points. At 1:00 a.m., the index rose to 9,168 points, and after a slight pullback, it took another step up, and at 2:00 a.m. at night, the Dow Jones rose to 9,229 points, up 250 points, or 2.79%, from the previous trading day.
The Dow Jones index has also driven the gradual rise of London copper to a large extent, and by 2:00 a.m., the price of London copper was $4,835, up $230, or 4.99%.