In addition, Zhang Shaohui has no opinions, just like the grass on the wall, the wind blows on both sides. When Li Xin expounded his point of view, he listened to it very reasonably, and a glimmer of hope gradually rose in his heart. But now, when Wang Minghui cites these two examples that have indeed happened to show that the market has risen more than 20% from its lows and will not necessarily enter a technical bull market, the glimmer of hope that has just sprouted in his heart has been shattered again. He secretly glanced at Li Xin in a gloomy mood, wanting to see how Li Xin explained in such a situation.

Zhang Shaohui, like Wang Minghui, also thinks that Li Xin is completely unable to justify himself in the face of these two facts, and the 20% gold standard that Li Xin just said is completely like a joke in front of these two facts.

And Li Xin's faint smile after listening to Wang Minghui's words just now seemed to Zhang Shaohui to have a different taste, and he thought that Li Xin was going to use this smile to cover up his embarrassment in front of everyone.

But Li Xin did not hesitate at all after that faint smile, and then immediately answered Wang Minghui's question. In Li Xin's opinion, he has thought about these two questions more than once when Wang Minghui said, and it is easy for him to answer these two questions. And he could also feel from the afterglow of his eyes that Zhang Shaohui and Wang Haoqiang cast a trace of distrust at him after listening to Wang Minghui's words. At this time, Li Xin had no way out, and the slightest hesitation and retreat on this issue would make the three people in front of him think that they were talking on paper.

So Li Xin turned around and pulled his chair over, sat down next to Wang Minghui, and then took the mouse in Wang Minghui's hand, pointed to the computer screen and said: "Let's start with the wave of rise from 2,990 points on April 22 to 3,768 points on May 5, and its rise reached 26%, far exceeding the gold standard I just said that a 20% rise will enter a technical bull market, but why does it rise by more than 20% but not enter a technical bull market? This has to start from another 20% The broader market index fell from 6,124 points in mid-October last year to 4,778 points at the end of November last year. This wave of decline is 21.98%, which is just the gold standard for entering a technical bear market after falling more than 20% from the high. In other words, since November 28 last year, the market has entered a bear market. Once the market enters a bear market, according to the Elliott Wave Theory, it will generally come out of a total of five waves of decline. The 21.98% drop from mid-October to November 28 last year was only the first wave in the downward process. From 4778 points on November 28 last year to 5522 points on January 14 this year is the second wave, which is an upward correction wave in the whole bear market decline. The decline from 5,522 points on January 14 this year to 2,990 points on April 22 is the third wave, which is a downward wave. The rise from 2,990 points on April 22 to 3,768 points on May 5 was 26%, but this wave of rise is only the fourth of the five waves, which is an upward correction. The market has completely walked out of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd waves until it has fallen to this place, especially the 3rd wave fell from 5522 points to 2990 points, a decline of 45.8%, compared with the first and second waves, this wave of decline is completely in line with the first iron law of the Elliott Wave theory: the third wave cannot be the shortest. That is, the 45.8% decline in the third wave has completely laid the pattern of this year's big bear market, and after the third wave after the fourth wave pullback, it will definitely come out of the fifth wave of decline. Because there is still a wave 5 decline to continue, although the pullback of wave 4 has reached a 26% upside, it is unlikely to enter a technical bull market, because the fifth wave of the bear market has not yet begun. This is the fundamental reason why the wave from April 22 to May 5 rose more than 20% from the lows to the highs, but there was no technical bull market. ”

As she spoke, Li Xin used her mouse to call up the scribing tool, and used the arrow to clearly mark the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th waves in the process of falling from 6124 points to 3768 points on May 5.

Li Xin paused at this point, he wanted to give Wang Minghui time to think and ask questions, and see if Wang Minghui had any questions about such an explanation.

After listening to Li Xin's explanation, Wang Minghui was silent for dozens of seconds.

Seeing that Wang Minghui was no longer asking questions, Li Xin used his mouse to draw a long arrow between 3,768 on May 5 and 1,802 on September 18, and then said: "This is the subsequent fifth wave of decline, and this wave has fallen even more, exceeding the decline of the third wave, reaching 52.2%. Graphically, the five-wave decline of the bear market has been fully completed. When the broad market index fell to 1802 points on September 18, it encountered a key piece of good news, and if I remember correctly, it should have been the good news that interest rate cut was announced that night. As a result, stimulated by this good news, the stock market soared on the second day, and the broad market index soared to 2,333 points on September 25, five trading days later. That's the second example of the 29.5% rise from lows to highs, well above the 20% gold standard, without entering a technical bull market. It stands to reason that when the broad market index fell to 1802 points on September 18, it had gone through a complete five-wave decline, and at this time it rose by 29.5% from the low point to the high, which has exceeded the gold standard of 20% bull and bear conversion, but why did it not enter a technical bull market, but fell further after September 25, and has fallen out of a new low of 1664 points? The most critical factor here is the time factor. Because September 26 is the last trading day before the National Day Golden Week, after the market rose to 2333 points on September 25, it closed a small black line on September 26, and the closing point was 2293 points, a slight decline. Because there is no way to trade in the next week, the market index on the 26th is moving sideways at a relatively high level, and the opening on October 6 after the National Day Golden Week will be greeted with a trend of neither rising nor falling. But what went wrong between September 27 and October 6? We all know that by now, and that was the financial turmoil caused by the subprime mortgage crisis on Wall Street. Without the financial turmoil, a major event that affects global capital markets, the broad market index would have been very likely to enter a technical bull market after September 25. ”

Li Xin talked about these technical problems endlessly, confident, Wang Minghui heard this, Li Xin's explanation has been convinced, but he still has a question, that is, this time after the market index rose from 1664 points by more than 20%, the stock market will enter a technical bull market. So he asked: "How dare you conclude that the third rise of more than 20% in the broader market can enter the bull market when the previous two rallies of more than 20% cannot enter the technical bull market?"

Li Xin smiled, and then continued: "Speaking of this time, if the market rises by more than 20%, entering a bull market is a high probability event, we have to go back and break down the second time the market index rose by 29.5% from low to high, but did not enter a technical bull market." In fact, when the broader market index hit a low of 1,802 points on September 18, the above once again introduced interest rate cuts, which clearly showed the intention of pulling up the market. In the next five trading days, the trend of the broader market index was also very cooperative, and the five-day rise reached 29.5%. If it weren't for the financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, the broader market index would have really risen. However, the reason why this wave of rise died abruptly, in addition to the relatively sluggish overall economic situation in China, is because the negative effect of the subprime mortgage crisis that affected the global financial market was too great, which made the benefit of interest rate cuts and this wave of rise completely aborted. I have a very deep understanding of this, I have been shorting metal copper all the way down, and the profits before the National Day Golden Week are not as lucrative as those after the National Day Golden Week. The reason for this is that the subprime mortgage crisis caused the stock market and futures market to plummet, which caused the profits of my short orders to increase sharply after the National Day. It was the wave of plunge after September 25 that made the stock market and the real economy worse, and the stock market also hit a low of 1,664 points on October 28. In my own estimation, if it had not been for this plunge after the National Day Golden Week, and if the situation of the real economy had not deteriorated further after the National Day, the large-scale infrastructure construction plan would not have been introduced last weekend on November 7. Because after the National Day Golden Week to November 7, this round of decline, has made the entire economic environment appear very bad signs, if there is no blockbuster good news to pull the entire economy, it may have to pay a greater price in the future. And the large-scale infrastructure construction plan introduced last weekend has a stimulating effect on the entire economy that can be compared with several interest rate cuts this year? The interest rate cut is only a fine-tuning, and the large-scale infrastructure construction plan has played a role in supporting the entire economy. As soon as this plan was introduced, the fundamentals of the entire economy changed completely. Coupled with the cumulative effect of several interest rate cuts before October this year, I said that if this wave of large-market indices really rises by more than 20% from low to high, then it will be almost stable to enter a technical bull market. This is the most fundamental difference between the broad market index and the previous two times if it really rises by 20% this time. ”