From last year to this year, Li Xin is very clear about the overall trend of the stock market. Comparing the two peaks in November last year and March this year on the price chart of sugar futures, Li Xin also has to admit that Ma Tianming's analysis is very reasonable. He defended himself with some embarrassment: "When the stock market hit a new high in November last year, I don't know why sugar prices didn't hit a new high. However, this year, when the stock market has entered a bear market and is likely to continue to fall in the future, it is difficult for sugar prices to rise significantly. ”

"So how much do you think the stock market will continue to fall?"

"At least it will continue to fall by more than 1,000 points, and the position of 2,600 points should be visible. Li Xin used a computer mouse to draw a line at the 2,600 points on the screen.

"Will it fall so much?" Ma Tianming asked, looking at the huge space between that line and the current point of the index.

"I think so, I don't believe you'll see. ”

"What about sugar prices, where do you think the low point of sugar prices will be this year?"

"I really can't say this, but if it wants to rise above 4,800 yuan like in early March, I think it is very unlikely. ”

Ma Tianming came to Li Xin to get some positive news from him, so as to boost his already somewhat broken confidence. But he didn't expect Li Xin's view of sugar prices to be so pessimistic, and this conversation not only did not boost his confidence, but made the dark clouds in his heart even lower.

He chatted with Li Xin for a few more words, and then went back to his office stupidly.

On the third day after May Day, the price of sugar continued to fall, and the lowest price fell to 3,859 yuan, which was more than 30 yuan lower than the closing price of the last trading day before the holiday.

Ma Tianming was a little confused. It turned out that he hoped that the price of sugar would rise rapidly after the holiday and return to his cost price again. However, in addition to seeing a little hope on Monday, the two long black candlesticks on Tuesday and Wednesday dashed his hopes again.

A week later, Lin Li, who had rushed to the suburbs to take charge of the sales work, called back and asked Ma Tianming: "Mr. Ma, all the goods from my side have been sent, what price will they start selling?"

"Wait and see, according to the sales price on your side, isn't it still a loss of more than 250 yuan per ton?" Ma Tianming said helplessly.

"Okay, I'll fax a copy of the market quotation here every day, when to start selling, Mr. Ma, you just tell me." ”

Ma Tianming looked forward to the rise in sugar prices in the stars and the moon, but in the following month, the price of sugar has been fluctuating back and forth at 3,900 yuan, and the closing price has never broken through the high point of 3,975 yuan on May 5, but the lowest price has fallen below 3,800 yuan, and the lowest price has come to 3,791 yuan.

On June 18, the price of sugar, which had been sideways for more than a month, suddenly rose rapidly, from 3,926 yuan on the previous trading day to a high of 4,068 yuan, and the closing price closed at 4,043 yuan.

Seeing that the price of sugar broke through the high point in more than a month, Ma Tianming's heart once again ignited hope.

But his happiness only lasted one night, the second day on June 19, after the sugar price gap opened more than 10 yuan, the highest rose to 4083 yuan, and then walked out of the same pattern as the trend on May 6. After hitting a new recent high, sugar prices quickly fell in waves. By the time the market closed, the price of sugar fell to 3,951 yuan again, returning to the vicinity of the central axis that had fluctuated back and forth for more than a month.

In recent years, Ma Tianming has concentrated on the sale of sucrose, and he knows better than Li Xin about the changes in the sucrose market.

Looking at the sugar prices, which have been in a state of sideways consolidation for more than a month from the beginning of May to the present, Ma Tianming also felt a little abnormal in his heart: Why did the sugar prices, which had a bit of a demonic trend in previous years, be in a dilemma in the past month or so? Could it be that the overall economic situation is not good, as Li Xin said, has had a great inhibitory effect on sugar prices.

He still remembers very clearly that in the conversation with Li Xin in early May, Li Xin was very sure that the stock market index would fall by more than 1,000 points in the future. Judging from the trend chart of the stock market, the day before yesterday on June 17, the closing index of the stock market was exactly 2769 points, which was exactly 1000 points lower than the point of 3780 points when Li Xin talked in early May.

In this way, comparing the trend chart of the stock market, Ma Tianming also found another strange place: yesterday, June 18, the stock market suddenly soared by 146 points, or 5.24%, after falling sharply for more than 10 days, and the price of sugar also happened to rise sharply on this day.

Today, June 19, the stock market fell sharply by 192 points, or 6.54%, engulfing all yesterday's gains. In the same way, the price of sugar fell sharply on this day, swallowing up all of yesterday's rise.

Regardless of whether what Li Xin said before was reliable or not, anyway, judging from the charts of yesterday and today, the price of sugar completely follows the stock market. Since this is the case, it is very important to see how the stock market will go in the coming period, and if you understand this, you will also figure out how the price of sugar will go.

Ma Tianming came to Li Xin's office and said to him with a smile on his face: "You are really like a god!"

Li Xin asked inexplicably, "What do you mean?"

"Last time you said that the stock market would continue to fall by 1,000 points, and now it has really fallen by 1,000 points, from more than 3,700 to more than 2,700, isn't this expected?"

"It just so happened. Li Xin said with a smile.

"From the beginning of May to now, the stock market has fallen by another 1,000 points, is it the bottom now? Can you buy stocks at this position?" Ma Tianming never mentioned the price of sugar.

"It's hard to say, what stocks are you going to buy?" Li Xin said the truth, from 3700 points to 2700 points, he used the wave theory to judge that there would be this wave of the fifth wave of decline. However, the stock market index fell to this position, and from any point of view, the trend of all five waves of decline is quite perfect.

By this time, the five waves of the entire bear market have been completed, and Li Xin is really not sure whether the market will continue to move sideways, or continue to fall, or start a new round of bull market.

When Ma Tianming saw Li Xin asking, he said: "I don't have an idea in my heart, I just want to ask you if the bear market is over, then help me pay attention to finding a few stocks." ”

"Oh. ”

Ma Tianming saw that Li Xin did not answer his question positively, so he changed the topic and asked: "If the stock market can't fall, will it be good for sugar prices?"

"Where is the price of sugar now?" Li Xin's mind is not on the price of sugar at all, the trend of sugar prices in the past month Ma Tianming is very clear in his heart, but Li Xin doesn't care at all, his mind is now on another issue that he is more concerned about.

At this time, after hearing Ma Tianming's question, he immediately guessed that Ma Tianming wanted to ask his opinion on sugar prices, so he asked himself like this, and he was busy pulling up the chart of sugar prices while talking.

Ma Tianming leaned over to him, pointed to the computer screen and said, "You see, the trend of sugar prices in the past two days is exactly the same as the trend of the stock market, which soared yesterday and plummeted today. ”

Li Xin took a closer look at the chart of sugar prices: "Oh, it's true. ”

Ma Tianming said: "Look here, the closing price of sugar yesterday has broken through the highest price on May 6, and it stands to reason that it should continue to rise after breaking through the previous high, but why did it suddenly fall today?"

Li Xin took a closer look at the graph and said, "This trend is a bit bad." ”

Ma Tianming hurriedly asked, "What's wrong?"

"It looks a bit like a return to the light. ”

"Back to the light?" Ma Tianming was a little surprised, how could Li Xin use such an unlucky word to describe the trend of sugar prices.

"It may seem a bit inappropriate to say that the light is coming back, but at least it's a bullish trap. ”

"What is a bull trap?"

"That is, the bears know that the price cannot rise, but they exert their efforts to pull the price up, induce long traders to chase it, and then the bears are short again in a very high position to make greater profits. ”

"You mean the price of sugar will not go up in the future?"

"It's really hard to go up this year. What's the cost of that sugar in your hands?"

"Around 4100. Ma Tianming had to tell the truth.

"Then I suggest that you take advantage of the current price around your cost price and ship it quickly, otherwise the problem may become bigger the later. ”

"But the problem is that now the difference is seventy or eighty yuan per ton, no more, no less. ”

"If you don't sell it now, you'll lose even more in the future. ”

"Why don't I wait another week or two to see, if there is another wave of rebound in prices, I can ship above the cost price, so at least I won't lose money." ”

Li Xin said: "That's fine, I hope there will be a rebound." But don't be greedy, leave if you have profits, or even leave when you save your capital. ”

Ma Tianming let out a long sigh and said, "Alas, it's easier said than done." Selling all those goods in hand is not as simple as closing a position in the futures market. ”

"That's true, but there is another way, if the price really rebounds, you can't sell all the goods in your warehouse at a better price for a while, you can choose to sell in the futures market for hedging. In this way, you can use the speed of closing positions in the futures market to lock in your profits, as long as you lock the profits, then it doesn't matter if the price of sugar falls sharply in the future. ”

If others heard Li Xin's idea, they might be very happy and immediately follow this method, but Ma Tianming was silent after listening to Li Xin's suggestion.

Ma Tianming, who had just asked and answered questions with himself and humbly asked for advice, suddenly fell silent, which made Li Xin feel very strange, he couldn't guess what Ma Tianming was thinking in his heart. Because in Li Xin's opinion, the idea he gave him was the best way to solve his current predicament. If he doesn't think of the idea he gave him, then he really has nothing to say.