"Really?"

"Really, don't believe you're waiting to see. ”

"It would be nice if the company could improve a little, otherwise it would not be a way to drag it out like this. ”

"It's useless for us to be anxious about this matter, the key depends on the Southern Group's own creation. You can watch TV by yourself, I'll go to the study to check some information, and after watching TV, you go to bed early, don't wait for me. ”

"Okay, you go to bed early, don't stay up late again. ”

"Hmm. Li Xin agreed, and went upstairs to the study to check the information.

That night, Li Xin spent a lot of time studying the listed companies in the coal industry, and there were seven or eight listed companies in the coal sector.

This company is engaged in the production of coking coal, and judging from the industry analysis reports over the years, the high-quality coking coal produced by this company has won the title of provincial excellent and ministerial excellent products for many years, and has a considerable reputation in the industry. In Li Xin's eyes, the characteristics of its products alone make the company stand out from the crowd of coal companies.

From previous news reports, it can be seen that this company has been providing high-quality coking coal to several large iron and steel enterprises all year round, and the products have been in short supply. When the stock market was bullish last year, many downstream coal-using companies were worried that they would not be able to grab the coking coal produced by the company, so they drove their cars to the coal mine pit with cash and bought the high-quality coking coal produced by the company in the form of cash and spot.

After carefully and deeply studying the situation of coal companies, Li Xin realized that, as Long Yunkai analyzed just now, high-quality coking coal is indeed a scarce resource in domestic coal reserves, and Jingxi Coal and Power Company has this scarce resource.

Judging from the basic situation of this company, its total share capital is 4.1 billion shares, which is almost fully circulated, and there is no pressure to lift the ban on shares. Judging from the operating performance of the previous three years, its after-tax profit per share is basically about 0.6 yuan, and its operating performance is not very beautiful, but it is in the upstream position among the listed companies in the coal sector.

It is particularly noteworthy that the operating performance in the first half of this year was very beautiful, and the after-tax profit per share in the semi-annual report reached 1.05 yuan. That is to say, the operating performance in the first half of this year has been twice that of last year's annual operating performance, and the performance growth is very obvious. If the company's operating performance continues to rise in the second half of the year, the operating performance for the whole year will be even better, and the after-tax profit per share may be 3~4 times that of last year.

The company's operating performance in the first half of this year has doubled compared with the operating performance of last year and the whole year before last, and this is obtained under the condition that the overall economic situation this year is very unoptimistic, and if the economic situation this year is as good as last year, then the company's operating performance may be even better.

The company's such beautiful business performance has made Li Xin's eyes shine.

However, compared with its beautiful business performance, its stock price makes Li Xin feel even more incredible.

Against the backdrop of a sharp stock market crash this year and a very sluggish overall economic environment, the company's stock has also fallen to a very low level along with the broader market.

Today is November 7th, and the closing price of this company's stock is 7.29 yuan, and at this time last year, when the stock market index rose to the highest point of 6100, the company's stock price was 77.7 yuan, which is 10 times the current one!

Another very informative data is that on November 10 of the previous year, when the magnificent bull market just started in the past, the company's stock price was 7.12 yuan.

In other words, the company's stock rose from $7 to $77 in two years, and then fell back to $7 from $77. Another great example of going from the end to the beginning.

If calculated according to the company's after-tax profit of 1 yuan per share in the first half of the year, the current stock price of 7 yuan is only 7 times compared with the after-tax profit of 1 yuan.

Now, if you buy shares in this company, you can recover the entire investment cost in 7 years just by relying on the annual after-tax profits, and this does not take into account the capital gains brought by the rise in the stock price in 7 years. Seven years later, no matter what the company's stock price is, when the time comes, all the company's shares will be sold, and the profit will be almost pure.

In the stock market, a price-to-earnings ratio of around 10 times is a very high-quality stock, and it is impossible for such a stock not to attract the attention of large funds, how can its stock price not rise in the next 7 years?

If you put the company's share price in the context of the trillion-dollar infrastructure investment that will be launched in the news tonight, its share price has more room to rise.

Last year, during the bull market, the company's share price rose 10 times from low to high.

Now the company's stock is back at the beginning of the bull market, and its operating performance has changed qualitatively compared to two or three years ago.

According to the analysis of various information obtained now, the high-quality coking coal produced by this company may face a larger market space and more vigorous demand in the future, and the company's stock is simply on the eve of soaring!

Thinking of this, Li Xin couldn't sit still, he got up from the desk and walked around the study twice, secretly thinking in his heart: This is another huge investment opportunity, this opportunity is not bad at all compared with the opportunity to short the copper price just now, and it is even more attractive. Because the futures market has about 10 times leverage, the risk is greater than that in the stock market, and futures varieties cannot be held for a long time. But stocks are different, after buying such high-quality stocks by yourself, you can hold them for a year or two or even longer, and it can be used to press the bottom of the box. For such a high-quality company, you can hold its shares for a long time and be its shareholder.

Thinking of this, Li Xin secretly made up his mind: just buy this stock and transfer the funds from the futures market on Monday.

But when she woke up on the morning of the second day, Li Xin felt that something was wrong.

As a resource-based company, the Southern Group has lost a lot of money in this round of asset price declines and economic downturns, will Jingxi Coal Industry face the same situation? Although the data found last night showed that Jingxi Coal Industry is now operating in good condition, Li Xin still felt a trace of hesitation in his heart before making such a major investment.

Jingxi Coal Industry is more than 2,000 kilometers away, although this distance is nothing for Li Xin, but the problem is that the time is very tight, and the decision must be made immediately before next Monday, at this time Li Xin does not have time to carefully understand other relevant situations of Jingxi Coal Industry, not to mention that even if he arrives at the company headquarters of Jingxi Coal Industry, I am afraid that the information he can get is not much different from the public information found on the computer.

Now there is only one way, and that is to see whether the current situation of the Southern Group is a common situation among resource companies, or an extreme case.

If the current situation of the Southern Group is an extreme case, then it shows from another side that the judgment that Jingxi Coal Industry now has a very high margin of safety that I obtained from the data analysis last night is desirable.

As soon as the problem is changed like this, Li Xin has a way. During the bull market last year, he bought shares in Western Copper and made a big profit.

The nature of the two companies, Western Copper and Southern Group, is almost identical, and as long as you compare the situation of these two companies, you can see some clues.

Because in recent months, Li Xin's mind has been on the price trend of futures copper, and he almost did not pay attention to the stock price of Western Copper, and when he turned out the stock price trend of Western Copper, he found that the company's stock price also fell miserably: its stock price is 7.27 yuan today, which is the same as the stock price of Jingxi Coal, and it has also fallen back to the price near the beginning of the bull market in November last year. You must know that when the bull market peaked in November last year, its stock price was close to 100 yuan. The current price is less than 1/10 of the price at the peak.

Judging from the trend of the stock prices of Western Copper and Jingxi Coal, it shows that Li Xin's worries are not unreasonable. Such a trend indicates that resource companies have suffered very heavy losses in the process of economic downturn and stock market decline.

However, after Li Xin took a closer look at the operating performance of the Western Copper Company, he realized that the situation of the Western Copper Company and the Southern Group was completely different.

Western Copper's operating performance in the first half of this year was an after-tax profit of 0.43 yuan per share. During last year's bull market, the company's annual operating performance was an after-tax profit of 0.78 yuan per share. The year before last, the company's operating performance was even better, with an after-tax profit of 1.36 yuan per share.

Judging from these three data, the operating performance of the western copper industry in the first half of this year has exceeded half of the operating performance of last year, although it has declined compared with half of the operating performance of the previous year, but considering the economic environment of this year, the company's operating performance in the first half of this year is still remarkable. According to this data, even if the company's operating performance does not increase in the second half of this year, the annual performance is only 0.43 yuan per share after-tax profit, which is enough to show that the company's performance is very good compared with the Southern Group.

Because as an enterprise in the non-ferrous metals industry, the Southern Group is now suffering huge losses and is on the verge of bankruptcy.

From the comparison of the two, it is not difficult to see that it is a common phenomenon that the performance of enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry has declined this year, but the current situation of huge losses of the Southern Group is an extreme case of resource enterprises.