Xia Xiaona took Li Xin's hand and ran downstairs in the city: "Hurry up, let's go, I can say that I drool, mutton skewers are my favorite, I want to eat more!"

When President Yang called, Li Xin and Xia Xiaona had just come to the warm restaurant and ordered a meal to eat.

"Hello, are you Li Xin? I'm President Yang of the bank. ”

"Oh, hello, Mr. Liu told me, what's the matter with you?" Li Xin had already read the text message sent by Liu Zhongzhou, so as soon as President Yang said this, he reacted.

Governor Yang said: "The price of copper has fallen so endlessly, and I don't know where it is. Mr. Liu said that you have a lot of research on copper prices, and I want to ask you for advice. ”

"It's okay to ask for advice, it's okay for everyone to discuss with each other. Governor Yang, do you want to buy copper?" Li Xin said modestly.

"No, I don't have that mind. Now, the price of copper continues to plummet, and the Southern Group is on the verge of bankruptcy, and the smelters and mines that were originally mortgaged to us are now facing an auction. But the price of copper has fallen to this level, and even if the smelters and mines are sold, they will not be able to recoup all of our loans. The reason why I am inquiring about the future trend of copper prices is to find out whether copper prices are likely to rise in the near future? If there is room for copper prices to rise in the near future, then we will temporarily postpone the auction of smelters and copper mines, so that more loans will be recovered, otherwise it will not be a good thing for us to sell at the current price. ”

"Oh, that's right. Liu Zhongzhou's text message only said that a governor surnamed Yang wanted to come to him to inquire about copper prices, but did not say more details, so Li Xin thought that this Governor Yang wanted to buy the bottom copper price in the futures market. Now that I heard him say this, I completely understood it in my heart. So he said: "It's hard to say how much room copper prices will rise in the near future, but I guess the current price level should not be too far from the bottom." ”

"Do you mean it's the bottom of the copper price now?"

"I think it's about the same. ”

"So after the bottom, shouldn't it be up next?"

"In terms of stages, after the bottom, it should be followed by an upswing, which is true. However, the length of time for the bottom shock is not necessarily, the bottom can be successfully built in a short three or five days, and the time is relatively long, and the price is tossed back and forth in the bottom area for half a month or even a month. ”

"That means it's not going to be certain for a while, right?"

"That's right, I went all the way down the short order was closed on Tuesday, at that time I also thought that the price would rebound quickly after bottoming out at that position, but the trend in the next few days surprised me, Thursday is a limit, Friday is a down limit, next Monday after the opening of the price will rise or fall? However, the amplification of trading volume and the long time of price back and forth in this week are enough to show that after nearly a month of rapid decline, copper prices have come to this position relatively safely. ”

"But the problem is that if the price can't rise in the short term, we can't afford to delay it. ”

"It's also true, time is really important, and you have to get through it before you can talk about anything else. Not to mention your bank, if the Southern Group can survive for another half a year, maybe there will be a turnaround, and it will not be able to take out such an important asset for auction now. ”

Governor Yang secretly thought: I had heard in private that the Southern Group wanted to sell the mine before, but it couldn't find a suitable buyer. They should have more connections in the industry, they can't sell it themselves, and now the bank may not be able to auction it too smoothly, and it is estimated that it will be difficult to find a buyer at the price they recognize. Under such circumstances, it is also very likely that the auction of smelters and mines will be helplessly delayed for several months to six months. If it is really like what Li Xin said, the copper price will turn around in half a year, it will also be a great thing for me. So he asked with interest: "Are you so sure? Do you think there will be hope for the copper price and the Southern Group in half a year?"

"I think so. Compared to this time last year, the situation is now at the other extreme. If we only look at the trend of copper prices themselves, how copper prices will develop in the future is really a bit vague and not easy to see clearly. However, if we look at the overall economic situation and the trend of the stock market from another angle, this problem is much clearer. At this time last year, the stock market index was more than 6,100 points, and now the stock market index is just over 1,600 points, almost from head to toe. When the stock market was crazy last year, in order to curb the overheating of the stock market, the central bank raised interest rates four or five times in a row, which is the cumulative effect of these interest rate hikes, which made the bull market come to the peak a few months later. Now the situation is just the opposite, since this time last year, in the process of the stock market all the way down, in order to prevent the stock market from falling too low, the central bank has cut interest rates several times in a row. It's been a few months since the first rate cut, right? After a few months and several cumulative effects, the effect of the rate cut should be gradually felt. After all, there is no such thing as a thing that will only rise forever, and there is no such thing as a thing that will never go down, right? That's why I said that if we look at it for about half a year in the future, the price of copper will definitely rise significantly. It's just that like you said, time is of the essence, and if you want to have a big reversal in the short term, the chances are not too great. ”

After hearing Li Xin's words, President Yang couldn't help but be secretly surprised: No wonder Liu Zhongzhou said that this person is not simple, and he asked this young man to answer the questions that he couldn't answer himself, and now it seems that this person's ability is really worthy of his reputation. Judging from his voice on the phone, this person is at most in his 20s and nearly 30 years old, but his vision and vision are so broad that people can't believe it. I have worked in the bank for many years and am still a senior person in the bank, but when I encounter such a specific problem as the trend of copper prices, I will not look at the problem from such a broad perspective. However, when talking about the future trend of copper prices, this person can jump out of the scope of specific problems, consider the problem in the overall economic environment, and come to a convincing conclusion.

So he had the heart to inquire about Li Xin's personal details: "I heard you just say that you shorted the copper price all the way, right?"

"Yes. ”

"So with such a sharp drop in copper prices, you should have made a lot of money. ”

"It's okay. ”

President Yang could hear that the other party was modest, and then asked: "I heard Mr. Liu say that you resigned from the Southern Group, why? You have studied copper prices so well, and you should have a good future for development if you stay in the Southern Group." ”

"Alas, people are different, if you want to have a future in the Southern Group, the premise is that the Southern Group itself must have a future for development, otherwise, what is the future on a ship that is about to sink?"

"That's right. If the Southern Group had been like you, adopting a short-selling strategy in the process of this round of price decline, I am afraid it would not have reached this point. ”

"yes. ”

"And where are you now?"

"Nowhere to go, do it yourself. ”

"Do you invest on your own?"

"Yes. ”

"That's not bad, I'll have time to contact you in the future. ”

"Okay. ”

After Li Xin put down the phone, Xia Xiaona asked, "Who?"

"The creditor of the Southern Group, the bank's governor Yang, called to ask about the trend of copper prices. ”

"What are they asking for?"

"Let's see if we can sell the smelter and mine at a good price, otherwise they won't be able to get their loans back." ”

"Oh. Eat it, the lamb skewers are getting cold, and I've eaten a lot better. ”

"Hmm. ”

Because this trip was only two days on the weekend, Li Xin and Xia Xiaona came and went in a hurry, and on the second morning, they went around the scenic spots near Jiayuguan, and in the afternoon, they rushed to the airport and took a flight back to Jiangcheng.

Monday, November 3rd.

Because not long after the market closed last Friday, Li Xin and Xia Xiaona hurried to the airport to travel to Jiayuguan, so he didn't have time to carefully analyze the market situation last Friday. Early in the morning of November 3 today, he stayed in front of the computer as usual and waited to see the opening of copper prices in the domestic futures market this morning, so that he had time to go back and carefully analyze the closing price of last Friday.

At the close of 15:00 on the afternoon of October 31, the copper price of 31,400 yuan in the domestic futures market hit a new low in the closing price of this wave of decline, and this price was still the limit of the day.

Generally speaking, the closing price on Friday afternoon is not too extreme, will not rise too high, and will not fall too low because of the uncertainties that may occur when the market is closed on Saturday and Sunday.

If it rises very high or falls very low, it indicates that the trend of copper prices on the following Monday is likely to develop in the direction of Friday's closing price, which means that copper prices should continue to fall on November 3. Otherwise, on the afternoon of Friday, October 31, the bears will not be so confident to suppress downwards, and the bulls will not be so irrational to sell and close their positions on the falling limit.

In addition, the trend of London copper prices and the Dow Jones Industrial Index, which closed at 2:00 and 4:00 a.m. on Saturday, did not appear too unexpected, so Li Xin estimated that after the opening of the market at 9:00 this morning, the downward decline in copper prices in the domestic futures market should be a high probability event.