If the broad market index stands above the 60 moving average at the close of today, its significance is equivalent to the beginning of the bear market when the broad market index fell below the 60 moving average on November 9 last year, and today's trend of breaking through the 60 moving average really laid the beginning of the bull market.

Wang Minghui replied with a hippie smile: "To borrow your auspicious words from a dead bull, there should be no problem for the broader market index to break through the 60 moving average today, and now we will wait to see where this third wave can rise." ”

Wang Haoqiang said: "Haven't we calculated? The third wave should rise to at least 2,246 points, and from this position, there is still room for 200 points to go up." ”

Wang Minghui said: "200 points is about 10% of the upside for the broader market index, and I am afraid that it is not just a price limit for my stock." ”

Zhang Shaohui took over his words and said: "Of course, if the market index can rise by another 10%, for stocks with better gains, two or three price limits will not be able to hold it down." ”

Just when a few of them were confidently estimating how much room their stocks could rise, the broader market index began to fall without any warning, as if it were a joke on them.

At 14:09, the broad market index fell to 2040 points, narrowing its gains to 3.82%.

At 14:22, the broad market index fell to 2029 points, narrowing its gains to 3.24%.

Even at this time, several people still thought that the broad market index was a pullback after a surge, and it would continue to rise in the next time.

However, the trend of the broader market index is completely opposite to their expectations.

At 14:33, the broader market index fell to 2012 points, narrowing its gains to 2.42%.

Looking at the steep downward trend on the index and Liugong Machinery's stock price time-sharing chart, Zhang Shaohui couldn't help but say: "No, is it going to be like November 27 today, opening above the 60 moving average, but closing below the 20 moving average?"

This sudden drop also caught Li Xin a little off guard, and he muttered: "It shouldn't be so miserable, right? It was not easy to stand above the 60 moving average, if it falls below the 60 moving average again, when will it rise again?"

However, the broader market index did not care what they thought, and after a brief correction of a few minutes, it began to fall again from 14:38.

By 14:51, near the close, the broad market index fell below the 2,000-point round figure mark and came to 1,997. By this time, the gains had narrowed to 1.61%, and the index was back where it was at the start of this morning, and judging by that momentum, it will continue to fall sharply in the minutes before the close.

"It's over, I'm afraid it's really going to fall back below the 60 moving average!" Wang Minghui said dejectedly.

But at this moment, the market index seemed to leave a glimmer of hope for everyone, and stopped the decline when it fell to 1991 points, and rose slightly a few minutes before the close, and when it closed at 15:00, it was standing above the integer mark of 2000 points, and the closing point was 2001 points, an increase of 1.84%, and a small white line was closed. However, the upper shadow of this white candlestick is very long, and from a technical point of view, such a candlestick chart indicates that the upper selling pressure is very heavy.

Liugong Machinery's stock price trend today is very special, when the market index rises, it follows the rise of the strength is very weak, but when the market index falls, it falls faster than the market index, when the closing price is 11.88 yuan, a decline of 1.74%, closed out of a large black line.

Morphologically, there are clear signs that the stock price is experiencing a pressure pullback from the 60 EMA.

Jingxi Coal's share price was still on the limit before the market index began to fall at 13:55, but with the decline of the market index, its share price also continued to fall, and the stock price closed at 10.24 yuan at the close, the increase narrowed to 4.60%.

From a graphical point of view, this is an inverted T-shaped small black line, its intraday high point of 10.77 yuan is not too far from the 60 moving average of 11.02 yuan, and there seems to be a sign of weakness in the 60 moving average under the suppression of the upward rush.

Wang Haoqiang's Development Bank also pulled back sharply at the close, and its largest intraday increase was close to the price limit, but it narrowed to 3.63% at the close. The candlestick chart is almost an inverted T-shape.

Wang Minghui's Sanjiang Holdings' intraday maximum increase was close to 9%, but by the time it closed, the increase was only 1.78%, and the decline from the intraday high to the closing point was the largest.

The closing price of 3 of the 4 stocks in the hands of the 4 people returned to today's opening price again, and the increase of 67% or even close to the price limit in the intraday board dissipated like a bubble, and the Liugong Machinery in Zhang Shaohui's hands was even more unsatisfactory, and the closing price even fell below yesterday's closing price.

Looking at this result, Wang Minghui asked: "What is the situation? Could it be that today I am here to do a day trip above the 60-day moving average? Looking at this momentum, it is still a question whether the 60-day moving average will hold up tomorrow." ”

Li Xin was also confused by such a rapid decline in the market index, and he groaned for a while before saying: "Anyway, today's closing above the 60 moving average is considered a victory." ”

Wang Minghui knew that he still thought that the market would continue to rise, so he asked: "Do you think the 60 moving average will hold up tomorrow?"

Li Xin said: "You have to think about this thing the other way, if the broad market index can't stand above the 60 moving average tomorrow, why doesn't it fall directly below the 60 moving average today, but stays until tomorrow to fall through it?"

"I don't understand what you mean by that?" Wang Minghui scratched his head.

"Today's broad market index closed above the 60 EMA, which is the first time in nearly 11 months, which is very important and almost a landmark event," Li said. Even if the broader market index will fall below the 60 EMA again in the future, today's close is already a sign that things have changed. ”

"Is this detail really that important? Who cares about this?" asked Wang Minghui puzzled.

"I think that's a very important point, and maybe in the eyes of many fund managers, large-scale position building may not really start until today," Li said. It's like the first time the broad market index fell below the support of the 60-day EMA on November 9 last year as a landmark moment, and it was only then that fund managers really started to think that the bull market was over and the bear market was about to begin, and they probably only really started to liquidate their positions at that time. ”

Wang Haoqiang and Zhang Shaohui sat on the side and listened to Li Xin's analysis with relish, and after Li Xin finished speaking, Zhang Shaohui immediately asked: "Is it really so magical?"

Li Xin said: "It's not magical, but from the K-line chart, you can see very clearly that these positions are the key turning points, which is what we call the inflection point." ”

"You said that fund managers only started to liquidate their positions after the broader market index fell below the 60 EMA for the first time on November 9 last year, and it should be very reasonable in retrospect. But what is the basis for you to say that today's broad market index is above the 60 moving average for the first time in 11 months, and fund managers will start to build positions on a large scale from this time?

Li Xin said: "Compared with them, the volume of funds is not at the same level at all, and fund managers often have billions or even billions of funds in their hands, so how much money do I have? Besides, I should be a little bolder than them, so I started earlier." ”

Zhang Shaohui then asked: "If there are fund managers like you who start buying on a large scale on November 7 and 10, and the profits are already quite large by this time, do you think they will clear their positions and leave the market?

Li Xin thought for a while and said: "If it is speculation in short-term funds, it is possible to do this, but if it is a fund manager, if they dare to enter the market on November 7, they will definitely not leave now." ”

"Why?"

"I can't say why, but I don't think they're so short-sighted. If the broad market index fails to break through the 60 moving average several times and turns downward, it is understandable that they will take profits and leave the market in this case. But today, although the broad market index rose and fell, it still stood above the 60 moving average. As I said, this is an inflection point. It would be unreasonable for a fund manager to come out at this time. ”

Zhang Shaohui said: "I am not saying that the broad market index is standing above the 60 moving average today, and the fund managers will sell again tomorrow to clear their positions, but that they will sell on the high when the broad market index rushes to a high level today." Could this be the reason for the sharp decline in the broader market index today?"

"This is even more unreasonable, the large-market index opened today above the 60 moving average, and the fund manager came to clear and sell when the intraday surge was high, which is unreasonable?"

"It's normal to sell at a high point, sell at a high point, buy at a low point to fight the difference." Zhang Shaohui said.

Li Xin said with a smile: "The short-term operation is like this, but the fund managers generally enter the market for long-term and ultra-long-term operations, and the holding time is generally calculated on a quarterly basis, and the number of shares they hold in their hands is unimaginable, and such a large position cannot be completed in a day or two." Like today's continuous upward trend before 13:55, I think it is likely to be caused by the entry of fund managers. In other words, in a situation like today, the probability of a fund manager leaving the market is slim to none, while the likelihood of entering the market is much greater. ”