Li Xin said: "The question I asked you just now, about the root cause of the rise in copper prices, many people say that the economy has developed and the demand is large, and the price of copper will naturally rise." But this explanation is too general, at least I don't think I have made the problem clear, so I didn't understand the reason for such a long-term rise in copper prices not long ago. ”

Speaking of this, Li Xin called up another chart and said: "In this chart, the bar chart is the comparison of the growth of domestic copper demand over the years, and the red curve above is the trend of domestic copper prices." From this, we can clearly see that in the past three years, the price of copper has more than tripled, but the growth in demand in the same period has been far lower than the increase in price. I think you probably know better than I know these data. ”

Li Xin stopped, he wanted to see if anyone would question these data, and when he saw that no one spoke, he said: "Frankly speaking, I look at these data, and I also feel that it is a little difficult for copper prices to continue to rise, but the prices in the market are still the same day by day, and I can't see the downward trend." So until yesterday, I didn't dare to buy or sell copper in the futures market. ”

Speaking of this, Li Xin called up another chart, changed his words, and said: "But after I read this article yesterday and carefully analyzed this chart, my opinion has changed. ”

At this time, everyone's eyes followed Li Xin's words, and all turned to the chart that Li Xin pointed at with a laser pointer.

Li Xin said: "This article has a remarkable feature, it clarifies for the first time that the real estate industry is the industry with the largest proportion of copper metal consumption, accounting for nearly 40 percent, far exceeding the electronic and electrical industry, which accounts for 2 percent and a half. This chart is a comparison of the growth of copper prices in London and the property sector, showing that about nine years ago, housing improvements in developed countries led to a wave of doubling in the price of copper at that time. The following chart shows the growth trend of the domestic real estate industry in recent years, and it can be seen from here that its growth trend is also obvious. ”

Finance Minister Zheng Guorui interjected at this time: "You want to say that the real estate industry has caused the price of copper to rise, right? But as the chart shows, its growth in the past three years has lagged far behind the increase in copper prices, and your reason is not valid!"

Huang Hongliang also echoed at this time: "Minister Zheng is right, you said that the real estate industry makes the demand increase, and then the demand causes the copper price to rise, isn't it back to your first chart just now? On that chart, you also said that the growth of demand is far behind the increase in prices, right? You are contradicting yourself!"

Li Xin said: "I want to say that the real estate industry is the most important reason for the rise in copper prices, and the focus is not to look at the current data of the real estate industry, but to imagine the data of the future." ”

Xue Chenzhi said impatiently: "You use imaginary future data to analyze the current copper price, do you think this is reliable?"

Li Xin smiled and said, "Vice President Xue, give me a few more minutes, and let me explain my meaning." ”

Li Xin didn't look at the chart data on the screen at this time, turned his head to face everyone and said: "The housing improvement in developed countries just mentioned is implemented on the basis of the original good housing conditions, and the number of people involved is only one or two hundred million, which can cause the copper price to double nine years ago." The development of the real estate industry in our country can also be understood as a larger scale of housing improvement, and this is carried out on the basis of relatively weak housing conditions, to talk about the goal of housing improvement, its increment is much larger than the increase of housing improvement in developed countries, and the number of people involved, at least three or four billion, is far more than the number of people involved in that round of housing improvement in developed countries. Think about it, how much will such a big demand boost the trend of copper prices?"

Li Xin continued: "Perhaps it is precisely because of this that copper prices at home and abroad have risen so fiercely in recent years. After all, the sophisticated investment funds in the international market had a similar experience nine years ago, so they have a deep understanding and foresight of this fundamental change in the fundamentals of the domestic economy, and dare to continue to push copper prices higher. If this analysis is correct, then even if the price of copper is about to exceed 40,000 yuan, which is already a historical high, the demand for copper will continue to increase in the long run. I dare not say whether copper prices will continue to rise, but it may be the norm to stay at such a high level for a long time in the future, and it will be difficult to plummet in the short term. If this inference is true, there is no need to sell the shelf, that would be too risky!"

After Li Xin finished speaking, no one in the room spoke. Liu Zhongzhou was a little annoyed at this time, Li Xin made a completely opposite conclusion at the meeting so easily, it was obvious that it would affect the judgment of others, if there were too many people affected by him, it would mean that the proposal he made to sell hedging was completely unfeasible.

But because of the words that Li Xin secretly reminded him to pay attention to his posture just now, it was inconvenient for him to be angry. What's more, what Li Xin said is not completely unreasonable, although he is straightforward, his opinions are not embellished, and they are completely contrary to his own opinions, but Liu Zhongzhou can see that this is right and not right.

Thinking of this, Liu Zhongzhou said: "In your opinion, the influence of real estate is estimated, not realistic data, I am not wrong about this, right?"

Li Xin said: "Yes. ”

Liu Zhongzhou continued: "Then the problem comes, just like Vice President Xue said, you use the imaginary demand to predict the price, and we use the actual demand shown on your chart to predict the price, and we are the majority, you are a person, how can you be sure that your opinion must be right?"

Li Xin listened to it, and didn't know how to answer for a while, what Liu Zhongzhou said also made sense. Li Xin blinked, hesitated, and said, "I didn't say that my opinion must be right, maybe I emphasized my own opinion too much in the tone of the expression just now, so everyone was a little misunderstood." This is just my personal opinion, a different opinion, for reference. ”

Liu Zhongzhou listened to it and said: "This is no problem, this is allowed, just to express your own opinions." ”

After Liu Zhongzhou finished speaking, he looked at the others and asked: "Now it is nothing more than two opinions, the possibility of rising or falling is high, what do you think, let's talk about it?"

Huang Hongliang said: "Of course, it is more likely to fall, but when will it start to fall and how much will it fall?

Xue Chenzhi nodded and said, "Yes, this is the most crucial!"

On this issue, Liu Zhongzhou himself has no bottom in his heart, and if the timing of the entry is not good, there will be big problems, so he said: "If you can't understand these two problems for a while, we can observe them again." Is it possible to settle the matter of selling hedging now? As for when it will be implemented, it is a matter of time, and it can be determined according to the price trend. ”

Xue Chenzhi said: "Yes, I agree with the chairman's opinion, this matter can be decided first, what price to sell, observe it." ”

Huang Hongliang asked: "I also agree, but what is the amount sold in the futures market?"

Liu Zhongzhou said: "By the way, this is also a problem, and we need to discuss it." In the second half of the year, there are more than 30,000 tons of copper production, whether all of them are hedged or only a part of it, and everyone also talks about their views. ”

Xue Chenzhi asked: "What is the capital requirement for this hedging?"

Liu Zhongzhou looked at Li Xin and asked, "You said that the funds should be about 30% of the value of the goods, right?"

Li Xin nodded and said, "Yes, thirty percent is the minimum standard." ”

Liu Zhongzhou said: "Just take three of the value of the goods as the standard, and you will now calculate an approximate amount." ”

Li Xin said without hesitation: "Okay, the copper price is calculated at 40,000 yuan/ton, and the value of 10,000 tons of copper is 400 million yuan. If 30,000 tons of copper are hedged, there should be 360 million yuan in the futures account. ”

Liu Zhongzhou looked at Xue Chenzhi and said, "360 million? This amount is too big, and it is estimated that it will be a little difficult!"

Finance Minister Zheng Guorui glanced at Li Xin at this time and thought: Didn't you just say that the issue of funds is not important? Now let's see if this issue is important or not!

Xue Chenzhi said: "It's a problem that the funds are too large, and yes, is it necessary to sell such a large amount in the futures market? Sell some of them first to see how about it? After all, it's the first time to do it, so it's good to leave some leeway." ”

When Huang Hongliang heard this, he said: "I think it is enough to take 10,000 tons out for hedging." ”

Liu Zhongzhou originally wanted to ask Huang Hongliang, what should he do with the remaining 20,000 tons? Could it be that he just watched the price fall and didn't care at all? But the problem of funds still made him swallow back the words that had already come to his lips, and even if he wanted to do it, funds were indeed a big problem.

Liu Zhongzhou thought about it, since Xue Chenzhi and Huang Hongliang were only willing to take out a part of the output for hedging, and the funds were indeed not abundant, it was better to follow their opinions.

He turned his head and discussed with Xue Chenzhi: "Then make a third first, 10,000 tons?"

Xue Chenzhi said: "Yes." ”

Liu Zhongzhou asked Zheng Guorui again: "Is there a problem with the 120 million funds? How long will it take to prepare?" In his image, this amount should be no problem.

Zheng Guorui said: "There is no problem, it can be ready in a day or two." ”

At this time, Li Xin, like an outsider, sat on the side and couldn't interject.

After Xue Chenzhi and Huang Hongliang agreed to Liu Zhongzhou's proposal, the other participants also agreed, and Li Xin was the only one who disagreed at this time, becoming a loner. When Liu Zhongzhou was discussing the next issues, his eyes no longer looked at Li Xin, but he just communicated with Xue Chenzhi, Huang Hongliang, Zheng Guorui and others to ask for their opinions.