"The starting point of the last bull market was from 1600 points, rising to 3000 points is the first wave, retracement from 3000 points to 2540 points is the second wave, rising from 2540 points to 4340 points is the third wave, the fourth wave is retraced from 4340 points to 3410 points, and the last fifth wave is rising from 3410 points to more than 6100 points." Do you think these 5 waves are very obvious and very standard?"

"Well, really, it's like it's pre-designed. ”

"There are a few other factors in this, and if you take them into account, you will feel that these five waves are even more magical. ”

"What is it?"

"Hike rate. ”

"A hike?"

In the process of the index rising from more than 2,000 points to more than 6,100 points, there have been a total of four interest rate hikes. The purpose of these four interest rate hikes is to curb the rapid rise of the stock index. But if you look at the trend on the chart, as I told you just now, once a bull market or a bear market is formed, it will firmly follow the process of all 5 waves rising or falling at its own pace. The impact of interest rate hikes on the rise of the stock market is very large, but the last wave of bull market has been raised interest rates four times, and it continued to rise without hesitation until the fifth wave rose to more than 6,100 points. Now we look back at this wave of bear market, which fell to a new low of 3,000 points two weeks ago, and rose by more than 20% to 3,700 points under the effect of interest rate cuts, but this rate cut is still unlikely to completely reverse the pattern of the bear market, and I judge that it will still come out of the fifth wave of decline, because people in the market believe this. When the vast majority of people act according to this logical thinking, it is very risky for you to operate against the trend, and it is wishful thinking to change the minds of most people. ”

"It really makes sense, I believe what you say!"

"Thinking about this clearly, don't you think it's a very dangerous thing to go in and buy the bottom now? Also, under such a trend, is it impossible for external forces to change it?"

"It really is!"

"It's like a child getting sick and having a fever, when his body temperature reaches 39 or 40 degrees, even if the doctor gives him injections and medicines, it will take three to five days for the disease to be cured. It is impossible for the doctor to give him injections and medicine today, and tomorrow he will be alive and kicking, without fever and inflammation, which is not in accordance with the laws of nature. It takes a certain amount of time and a certain regularity to eliminate the inflammation of the lesion, and you can delay or shorten its development process to a certain extent, but it is impossible to fundamentally reverse it. This is an objective law, and it is also the case in the stock market. ”

"Your brain is so smart, how come you even know all this?" Xia Xiaona snuggled up to Li Xin and said.

"The ancients said that what you have learned is put into practice, and there is another saying called coming from practice and going to practice. Just like the Pythagorean theorem is a powerful tool for analyzing and studying right triangles, wouldn't it be a bit ridiculous if you learned the Pythagorean theorem and left it aside when you encounter a right triangle. Li Xin was quite proud of Xia Xiaona's praise.

"I remember in the process of the second wave pullback, some friends wanted to chase high and buy in this place, and I persuaded them that the bear market was not over at this time, and it was too risky to chase it. Guess what they say?"

"How?"

"They say that from more than 6,100 points to 4,800 points, a total of more than 1,300 points, the bear market should be over. ”

"And what did you tell them?"

"What are you kidding? Now the bear market has just begun, and it is still 8 feet away from the end. ”

"The end of the beginning?" Xia Xiaona blinked, a puzzled look.

"That's right. The development process of any thing can be divided into the beginning stage, the intermediate stage of development and the final stage of the end, right?"

"Hmm. ”

"And each of these three stages can be subdivided into the beginning stage, the intermediate stage of development, and the final stage of the end, right?"

"Yes. ”

"So if we look at the third wave of the total of 5 waves as the intermediate stage of development, when the market falls to 4800 points, it has just begun the correction of the second wave. This time can be seen as the end of the beginning at best. Let's not talk about the intermediate stage of development of wave 3 for the time being, the end of the bear market will not begin until at least the retracement wave of wave 4 appears. In other words, the rise from 3000 to 3700 is just the fourth wave, which is what I said it is only the beginning of the end. The final end of the bear market will not be considered until the fifth wave begins to fall and breaks through the new low of 3,000 points. That's why I said that you can't buy at 3700 points, and if you buy, you will go through the whole closing stage and the final closing stage. I don't expect the downside of wave 5 to be smaller than the 1300 point of wave 1. That is to say, the 700-point decline from 3700 to 3000 points is not considered for the time being, and there is at least 600 points below 3000 points. So where is the lowest point? At least around 2400 points, which is the most conservative estimate. ”

"Is it that serious?"

"Don't believe you, wait and see. ”

Li Xin has always been full of interest when he encounters such a problem as technical analysis, and he is about to continue talking, but Xia Xiaona's mind has changed at this time, she closed her eyes and leaned on Li Xin's shoulder and said: "These things are so brain-burning, one will be the end of the beginning, and the other will be the beginning of the end, I am a little sleepy by you." ”

When Li Xin heard this, she had to interrupt the idea of continuing to discuss with her: "Then hurry up and take a bath, let's rest early after taking a bath, I have to take a good look at you!"

"Hmm!"

On the last day of the May Day holiday, Ma Tianming sat in the living room and stared at the TV in a daze. His wife sat on the side and munched melon seeds while changing the program with the remote control in her hand.

The picture on the screen kept changing, but Ma Tianming didn't seem to see anything. Although his eyes were fixed on the TV screen, his mind kept thinking about what the selling price and futures price in the market would be after he went to work tomorrow.

These few days of vacation seem like a year to him. Fortunately, I will go to work tomorrow, and whether the news is good or bad, there is always a saying. There is no news during the holidays like these days, and he is worried all day long, and he never wants to live such a day again.

He even secretly regrets now that he shouldn't have started so quickly before the festival and made it difficult for him to ride a tiger.

But then again, going to the sugar factory to buy goods is not as easy as opening a position in the futures market, and there is no way to get the amount you want without seven or eight or even ten days.

Now he can only pray in his heart that everything he hears after he starts work tomorrow will be positive.

Li Xin's mood at this time is completely different from Ma Tianming, he and Xia Xiaona were busy purchasing furniture in Shanghai, and after parking the newly bought villa decoration, on the last day of the holiday, he took Xia Xiaona to fly back to Jiangcheng from Shanghai early in the morning, and then drove his car non-stop, and took Xia Xiaona back to Lucheng to see his parents.

Li Xin has been the heart of his parents since he was a child, and since he graduated from high school and was admitted to college, he has only been home a handful of times every year. Every time he went home, his parents were as happy as if they were celebrating a holiday.

Compared with the past, Li Xin came back today to be more special, after receiving his call last night, knowing that he was going to bring his girlfriend home today, his parents were even more happy than words.

In particular, his mother's mood is even more complicated. She knew that Li Xin had a girlfriend many years ago when she was in college, but she blew that girlfriend without even seeing her.

Today, Li Xin is going to bring his girlfriend back, this is the first time. What does this girl look like, whether she has a good personality and temperament, and whether she is not a good match for her son, these are what she cares about the most. The level of anticipation for these questions far exceeded her desire to see her son.

Therefore, it was still a long time before Li Xin arrived home, and his mother stood at the window waiting.

As soon as Li Xin's car turned into the intersection, his mother happily opened the door and greeted him.

Before Li Xin's car stopped, his mother walked to the car, bent down and looked at the car and asked, "Little brother, why are you only home now?"

Li Xin said while unbuckling her seat belt: "Mom, I got off the plane and drove back in the car, and there was no delay on the road." ”

Li Xin's mother stood on the driver's side, talking to her son, and her eyes looked out the window at Xia Xiaona who was sitting in the passenger seat.

"Hello, Auntie!" Xia Xiaona tilted her head to greet her.

"Hello, hello, come home, come home!" Li Xin's mother replied happily.

Li Xin opened the car door and got out of the car, pointed to Xia Xiaona who came around from the front of the car and said, "Mom, this is my girlfriend, her name is Xia Xiaona, you can call her Nana." ”

Then he said to Xia Xiaona, "This is my mother. ”

Xia Xiaona stood beside Li Xin, bent down slightly at Li Xin's mother, and said respectfully, "Hello, Auntie!"

"Okay, good!" Li Xin's mother said with a smile as she looked at Xia Xiaona, who was wearing a goose-yellow dress and a ponytail. I don't know if she is answering Xia Xiaona's greetings, or if she is very satisfied with the girl in front of her.

"Mom, where's my dad?"