Li Xin looked at it for a while and said: "You look at this K-line chart, showing the trend from July to October this year, the overall trend is up, but I feel that from here it can also be seen that the continuity of the Shanghai copper futures price is not good, how can the opening price of the next trading day be compared with the previous trading day will often jump sharply up or down sharply? Such a trend is difficult to predict for short-term operations, and I feel that I can't see the law." Under such a trend, if the short-term operation holds an overnight order, it is simply a gamble on the size and the risk is too great! If you are making a long-term investment, you can see the trend clearly, and you can withstand large fluctuations in the short term, then it is another matter. ”

Wang Minghui said: "Yes, I don't know what I can do with this picture. But if you look at another long-term price chart, the rally is very good!"

Li Xin looked at it and said, "Yes, I noticed it too." That's why I said that if you can see the long-term trend clearly, do trend operations and filter out short-term fluctuations, and from this chart, the increase is really big. You see, the price at the beginning of October was more than 28,000 yuan, an increase of more than 60% from more than 17,000 yuan in September last year. If the position is calculated at 50 percent, then from September last year to now, it will be two and a half times the return on funds, and the return on funds will be five times in two years from the year before last year to the present, which is very exaggerated!

Cheng Feipeng saw that they were talking with great interest, so he leaned over and asked, "What are you two discussing?"

Li Xin said: "The trend chart of Shanghai copper futures. ”

Cheng Feipeng said: "I'll take a look." ”

Li Xin handed the information in his hand to Cheng Feipeng, and then said to Wang Minghui: "Of course, the two return on funds I am talking about are under ideal conditions, and the continuous longing on the main contract, including the transfer of positions, can be carried out smoothly, and it is roughly estimated without too much cost change. However, even if this is an ideal increase, it is enough to show that in the past two years, the price of Shanghai copper futures has risen quite amazingly. ”

Cheng Feipeng looked at it for a while and said, "This increase is really big!"

Li Xin said: "I don't know about the non-ferrous metals industry at all, those who are familiar with the non-ferrous metals industry, if they are optimistic about the trend of copper prices in the past two years, and go long on the Shanghai copper futures contract, they will definitely make a lot of money." But then again, if you are not familiar with the situation in the industry, if you are bearish on the trend of copper prices in the past two years and short on the Shanghai copper futures contract, I am afraid that you will have lost a lot of money long ago. ”

Wang Minghui asked: "After reading these materials, what is the most intuitive feeling?"

Li Xin smiled and said, "Are you testing us?"

Wang Minghui hurriedly explained: "No, that's really not what I meant! Let me tell you, after reading it, the most intuitive feeling I have is that the price of copper is going to rise, and I can still buy it now." Lao Cheng, what do you say?"

Cheng Feipeng said: "I don't know much about copper, so it's not good, but now the price has more than doubled compared to two years ago.

After listening to this, Wang Minghui turned his head and asked Li Xin, "What do you think?"

Li Xin asked: "You said that you think you can do more, what is the reason?"

Wang Minghui said: "I can't say why, it's just an intuitive feeling. ”

Li Xin said: "If you talk about the feeling of these materials, I think the fundamentals of copper have changed a lot. If it weren't for the great changes in supply and demand and the price of raw materials, how could this have happened? But how have these factors changed and to what extent? Therefore, whether the current price is still suitable for long, I really can't see clearly. ”

Wang Minghui said: "What you said also makes sense, let's go to the Shanghai Copper Futures Seminar on Saturday and listen to it?"

Li Xin said: "Yes, where is it?"

Wang Minghui said: "Jiangcheng Hotel, starting at half past one in the afternoon, just say that it is a friend of Vice President Yuan." ”

Li Xin said: "Okay, I'll go over when the time comes." ”

Wang Minghui said: "Lao Cheng, are you going?"

Cheng Feipeng said: "Not necessarily, anyway, I know the time and place, and I will go if I can." ”

Wang Minghui said: "Okay, I'll see you then." ”

Such a beautiful increase in copper prices aroused Li Xin's great curiosity, and he had been searching for various information on the computer since he returned home, but after studying it carefully all night, he did not see any doorway, and he still did not know anything about the root cause of such a rapid rise in copper prices.

The Southern Group is smelting and selling copper metal, but he doesn't know anything about the rise in copper prices around him, Li Xin feels that this is a huge mistake, fortunately, Liu Zhongzhou has not asked about the collection and analysis of information in this regard during this time, otherwise he is really speechless.

We really have to get a good grasp of this work, otherwise we won't be able to do it at that time.

The next day, when he met Gao Hui in the corridor, he suddenly remembered that he had been transferred to the non-ferrous metal sales business for several months, and he should have a better understanding of these situations, so he dragged him into the office: "Let's go and talk to you, ask a question." ”

Gao Hui said: "What are you kid doing, pulling and pulling?"

Li Xin took out a cigarette and handed it to him, lit one himself, and then said, "It's been a long time, I'm looking for you to inquire about something." ”

Gao Hui said: "Look at your ill-intentioned appearance, what kind of idea are you playing?"

Li Xin scolded: "Damn! What the hell can I fight, it's a sunny day, are you still afraid that I won't be able to tease you?"

Yu Hong, who was next to her, couldn't help but laugh when she heard this.

Gao Hui couldn't help but laugh and said, "What the hell is going on?"

Li Xin said: "Aren't you selling copper now? I noticed that the price of copper has risen a lot in the past year or two, what is the reason for this?"

Gao Hui squinted at Li Xin and said, "I know that you are a master of sugar futures, what's the matter, now you are playing copper again?"

Li Xin waved his hand and said, "That's not the case. Now it is also my job to do non-ferrous metal information analysis, just like I did when I analyzed sucrose. But I don't know anything about this thing, and I can't figure out why the price of copper has risen so much in two years. ”

Gao Hui said: "You ask me, who do I ask? I don't know, now I will sell it if I am asked to sell it from above, as for what is the cost, what is the profit, why will it rise? I really don't know, you have to ask the factory to know." ”

When Li Xin heard this, she couldn't help but be a little disappointed.

Gao Hui continued: "I haven't been long ago, and to be honest, this thing is much more complicated than sucrose. At the beginning, I had been in the sugar company for a long time, and it took many tons of sugarcane to squeeze a ton of sugar, because I was familiar with the production process, and I had a rough spectrum of the relationship between cost and selling price. But now I don't know anything about the mining of copper ore and the cost of smelters, so I am also blind to what you ask. ”

Li Xin thought for a while and said: "I'm not just talking about cost and price, I'm talking about why copper prices have been rising in the past two years." You see, the price of the year before last was more than 11,000, last year the price rose to more than 18,000, and this year it has risen to more than 28,000. It's not too much to say that it's gone and never looked back, right?"

Seeing that Gao Hui didn't speak, Li Xin continued to explain: "I'll give you an analogy, take sucrose as an example, a few years ago, when the supply and demand relationship between raw materials was in short supply, the price of sugar rose from more than 4,000 to 5,670. When the relationship between supply and demand improves, the price will fall from 4,56 to 3,003. Now, the price of sugar is around four thousand and a half, which is neither high nor low, right?"

Gao Hui nodded.

Li Xin said: "From this example, it can be seen that the price of sugar has a reasonable range, fluctuating around 4,005. The cost of sugarcane is the same, it fluctuates in a range, if it is high, it will fall back, and if it is low, it will go up. You're a veteran of cane sugar, and you know that better than anyone else. ”

Gao Hui nodded thoughtfully.

Li Xin said: "My question now is, why don't you look back as soon as the price of copper rises? You can say that because the price of copper ore has risen, the cost has risen, so the price of copper has also risen. But the problem is still not solved, what is the reason why the copper mine has been rising?"

Yu Hong listened quietly on the side, not saying a word.

Gao Hui said: "I didn't think about this question so deeply, maybe the market demand has changed?"

Li Xin said: "What's wrong, we still take cane sugar as an example, this commodity is facing the domestic market, and the changes in market demand have been growing steadily, so you see that even if the price of sugar fluctuates sharply, there is still a value center." Copper metal is also facing the domestic market, is the market demand change so drastic, every year is a new five or six percent? This is not right, why three years ago the market demand did not change so much, it is the past three years that the emergence of a new force?

Gao Hui waved his hand and said, "This question is too brain-burning, don't ask me, hehe." ”

Li Xin said: "You are at least a little more in contact with me than me, you help me think about it, the fundamentals of copper metal must have changed, this is undoubtedly from the price trend, but what factors cause such a change?"

Gao Hui said: "I really can't say this, why don't you find an opportunity to ask Mr. Huang and them? These people are familiar with the non-ferrous metal industry, and they may be able to answer you." ”

Li Xin said with some embarrassment: "This is also a solution, but I always find it a little difficult to do." Huang Hongliang looked at me a little wrong, if he didn't come to ask me this question, it would be okay, I went to ask him, didn't I feel uncomfortable myself?"

Gao Hui said: "You just found out? These people look at the original employees of the sugar company with this look, you just get used to it." ”