What he didn't know was that when he ignited this glimmer of hope again, it was precisely when Li Xin decided to increase his position.

Over the next two days, futures prices went lower and lower, and today they suddenly opened with a gap and fell below the lowest point in mid-June.

Such a trend, even from the perspective of Jin Changxing, a futures layman, is not good.

The price of 62,000 yuan at the 60 moving average is too low for him, and the price of 61,500 yuan two days ago was barely acceptable, but today's price below 60,000 yuan makes him a little unbearable. At a loss, he couldn't care about the problem of face anymore, and got up and came directly to Li Xin.

Li Xin saw him come in, got up and greeted, "Chairman." ”

Looking at Jin Changxing's panicked look, Li Xin didn't know what to say.

This question that Jin Changxing asked as soon as he entered the door, Li Xin clearly told him a month ago that copper prices would fall sharply. He now asked such a question again with such a demeanor, and the intuition given to Li Xin was that the words he said to him a month ago were probably treated as if he had fallen on deaf ears, and he had not taken any precautions against the risks he had reminded him of, otherwise he would not have had such an expression.

"Have you seen the price?" asked Jin Changxing.

"Watching. ”

Jin Changxing rarely bypassed the desk, came to Li Xin's side, pointed to the computer screen and asked: "Why is this price getting lower and lower, it doesn't make sense!"

Jin Changxing still didn't believe that the price would continue to fall, which made Li Xin have no way to explain to him, so he had to say vaguely: "Today's price decline momentum is a bit fierce." ”

Jin Changxing said: "But the trend of London copper prices is different from this, do you have a chart of London copper prices here?"

"Yes. Li Xin said and called up the chart of London copper prices.

"You make the graph a little smaller. Kim Chang-heung demanded.

"Okay, do you think this will work?" Li Xin said as he clicked the downward arrow key a few times, shrinking the K-line chart on the computer screen.

Jin Changxing watched the figure shrink to the appearance he requested, and hurriedly motioned for Li Xin to stop: "Okay, okay, that's it." ”

Then he pointed to the graphics on the computer screen and asked Li Xin: "Look here, the low point of the London copper price in January last year was $5,245/ton, and the low point of the London copper price at the end of December last year was $6,317/ton." Stretching these two lows in a straight line to the left, we hit the lowest point in May three years ago, when copper was $3,000/t in London. These lows are all in this straight line, which fully shows that this straight line is the support line for London copper prices. Judging from this trend line, the bottom of the London copper price is gradually rising, and it just hit a record high of $8,940/t in early July, and the trend will continue to rise in the future. Why is it that the domestic copper price is falling endlessly? This makes no sense. ”

Li Xin was amazed to see Jin Changxing skillfully connect the two lows of $5,245/ton and $6,317/ton into a trend line, and what surprised him even more was that Jin Changxing not only extended this trend line to the right, but also extended it to the left to the low price of $3,000/ton three years ago. Even Li Xin didn't think of this.

In the face of Jin Changxing's question, Li Xin knew that he didn't believe in the reasons he had said, so he pointed to the support line drawn by Jin Changxing himself and said: "Even if the support of this support line is effective, the current price of copper in London is 7625 US dollars / ton, the support position of this line is 7230 US dollars / ton, and there is a decline of nearly 400 US dollars downward, and then we can get the support of this support line, and it is normal for domestic copper prices to fall at this position at this point." ”

When explaining this problem to Jin Changxing, Li Xin secretly calculated quickly in his heart: the price of copper in London fell from the current $7,625/ton to the support level of $7,230/ton, and there is still nearly $400 room to fall, a decline of 5.25%. On the trend chart of domestic futures copper prices, the price predicted by himself will fall from the current position of 59,500 yuan to 57,210 yuan, and there is still room for at least 2,300 yuan downward, with a decline of 3.86%. From this point of view, it makes sense to expect the domestic copper price to fall.

"According to you, if the London copper price falls to $7,230 / tonne, where will the domestic copper price fall?"

Li Xin, who had just considered this problem, blurted out: "At least it will fall to 57,000 yuan/ton." ”

"Do you want to drop 3,000 yuan?" Jin Changxing listened a little big.

"I think it should be. Li Xin said.

Jin Changxing thought about it for a while, and then instructed Li Xin: "You bring out the trend chart of domestic futures copper prices again." ”

"Okay. Li Xin said, according to Jin Changxing's request, the trend chart of domestic futures copper prices was called.

"Hey, what do you mean by this line?" asked Jin Changxing, pointing to the yellow line that Li Xin had drawn on the computer screen.

Li Xin explained: "This trend line is the same as the trend line you just drew on the London copper price chart, and I also connected the two lows of 49,680 yuan and 51,710 yuan in the domestic copper price when the London copper price hit two lows in January and December last year." ”

"So what will be the support level of this line in the future?" asked Kim Changxing.

Li Xin moved the crosshairs of the computer mouse over and measured it, and then said, "About 56,000 yuan." ”

He secretly calculated in his heart again: if the price falls from 59,500 yuan to 56,000 yuan, the decline is just 5.8%, which is very close to the price of copper in London from the current 7,625 US dollars / ton to 7,230 US dollars / ton The decline of 5.25%.

Jin Changxing, who has no other technical analysis ability and can only draw support lines, is a little depressed when he looks at this result. Just now, Li Xin also said that the downside is 3,000 yuan, but from this support line, the downside is 4,000 yuan, which is larger than Li Xin's estimated space.

"Are you still bearish?" he asked feebly.

"Yes. Li Xin said.

Jin Changxing asked: "Judging from these two trend lines, the price trend of London copper and the price trend of domestic futures copper reached the corresponding low point at the same time in January and December last year, and the corresponding low point has been supported after the rise, so that is to say, in the future, when the price in the two markets reaches the support position of 7230 US dollars / ton and 56000 yuan / ton respectively, the probability of obtaining support is very large." But your previous judgment is that the domestic futures copper price will fall below 50,000 yuan this time, why do you think that the support line does not work this time?"

"The fundamentals have changed, and the whole market was in very strong demand in January and December last year, but this year is different. Li Xin had to repeat the reasons he had told him before.

Jin Changxing listened to Li Xin's old tune, and his face was a little unhappy. He pointed to the graph and asked: "The domestic demand is a little sluggish, but the price trend of London copper is obviously higher than one wave, and the probability of rising after gaining support again in the future is very high, don't you see this?"

The essence of Jin Changxing's question is actually the same question that Yuan Jie asked himself on the phone just now, that is, they all believe that the trend of London copper prices will affect the trend of domestic futures copper prices, not the other way around.

Li Xin was asked by Jin Changxing again, and his heart suddenly stirred, and a bright light suddenly flashed in his mind, allowing him to instantly find the answer to this question.

It turned out that this question had been hidden in his subconscious and had never gone far, but he himself was not aware of it. Now Jin Changxing and Yuan Jie's two questions are like touching a switch with his hand, opening up the space for his thinking and allowing the answer to be revealed instantly.

He suddenly remembered that a few years ago, when he was long on futures copper, he had considered this problem: the price trend of London copper and the trend of domestic futures copper prices affect each other, but which one is dominant? At that time, after careful consideration, he believed that the domestic consumer market was the largest in the world, and the trend of domestic copper prices should in turn drive the trend of London copper prices.

It was this correct judgment that allowed him to seize the largest wave of increases in the history of copper prices and make a lot of money.

Now, the same question arises: if copper prices fall from historical highs in the future, will domestic copper prices affect London copper prices, or will London copper prices affect domestic copper prices?

From the perspective of the original analysis of the problem, the domestic market is still the world's largest consumer of copper metal, and this has not changed. And from the perspective of the domestic market, the shrinkage of the market this year is very obvious. In such a situation, the domestic copper price will still affect the price in the global copper metal market as it did a few years ago.

Thinking about it this way, the problem raised by Jin Changxing and Yuan Jie just now is easily solved: the price trend of London copper is strong as a whole, and the bottom and top are in the process of gradually rising, which is because it is in a passive angle and the price response lags behind.

In contrast, the bottom of the domestic futures copper price trend in two years from 49,680 yuan to 51,710 yuan is not obvious, but the highs in two years were from 85,000 yuan, 75,000 yuan, 70,000 yuan to 64,830 yuan a month ago, the downward trend is obvious to all.

This trend just proves that the trend of domestic futures prices is very in line with the consumption situation of the domestic futures copper market, and it will continue to play a leading role in the future, driving the international copper price down for a reason.