Chapter 509: The short-term trend is hard to guess
Therefore, the opening price of this day is 54,000 yuan, which is 820 yuan higher than the closing price of 53,180 yuan at 3 pm yesterday.
This trend was almost unexpected.
At the close of trading yesterday afternoon, there were more than 30,000 sell orders sealed on the fall limit, and the London copper price also fell sharply by 3.54%, so Li Xin always thought that the opening price of futures copper this morning would definitely gap sharply downward, even if it was not a large gap and a low opening, flat opening was almost the worst plan.
But in fact, the result of a sharp gap of 820 yuan once again proved to him the unpredictability of the short-term trend of domestic futures copper prices.
With such a sharp gap, the profit on his account disappeared by more than 16 million yuan overnight.
Yuan Jie jokingly asked him that day, that sentence is actually really reasonable, no matter who looks at the profits in his account every day, either more or less, or even tens of millions of yuan, it is difficult for a person to bear.
Li Xin looked at such an opening price and sighed helplessly: It's not like yesterday was a falling limit, and it will rebound sharply today, right?
Yesterday, a sharp gap opened 1,900 yuan, which is obviously the result of short suppression. But today's 820 yuan, which opened sharply and high, was done by the bulls or the bears, so he couldn't guess a little.
While it is highly likely that the bulls will fight back today and raise the price to boost their confidence, there is a big risk in doing so.
So could it be the work of the bears?
The main bears saw that after the London copper price bottomed out and rebounded last night, they took the initiative to jump high and close their positions today?
Yesterday, when more than 30,000 sell orders were pressed on the falling limit, they did not make a profit, but today they opened the market with a gap and opened high, isn't this a wedding dress for the bulls?
This is very unlikely.
In any case, today's strange opening price must indicate that there will be a fierce competition between the long and short sides.
Sure enough, after the official start of trading at 9:00, the opening price of 54,000 yuan was just a flash in the pan, and the price was hit to 53,660 yuan within three minutes.
Immediately from 9:04, the price was pulled up from 53,660 yuan, and after just 8 minutes, the price came to the integer mark of 54,000 yuan again.
The price was once again strongly suppressed by the bears at this integer mark, and the selling orders were stronger than the wave, and the price rose from 53,660 yuan to 54,000 yuan quickly, but the speed of falling down was not slow at all. By 9:40, the price had been hit to 53,500 yuan.
When Li Xin saw this scene, he understood a little in his heart: it seems that today's opening price of 54,000 yuan was indeed a bit unexpected by the main bears, but after they understood the intention of the bulls to pull the price to this high level, they decided not to let the bulls' attempt succeed. The main bears must have regarded the 54,000 yuan line as the last line of defense today, and they will not let the bulls easily pull the price up again. Because if a white candle closes today, the decline may reverse.
The long and short sides on the disk are still fiercely competing, and the price began to rise from 53,500 yuan at 9:51. By 10:34, the price came to 53,830 yuan.
Signs of bulls struggling to resist at a low level are also clear.
However, the price fell to this position, and the psychological advantage and financial advantage were all on the bears.
The bulls wanted to pull the price above 54,000 yuan, but the bears did not want them to succeed in this attempt, and after this wave of prices came to 53,830 yuan, they did not rise again, but launched a wave of decline.
By the time the market closed at 11:30 a.m., the price had fallen to 53,320 yuan.
After Li Xin carefully analyzed the trend in the morning, he came to such a conclusion: the signs of the main bulls wanting to resist are very obvious, but the other bulls did not follow up, many bulls who did not escape from the market yesterday when they pressed on the fall limit, and today they will see the high price of 54,000 yuan and will definitely stop the loss immediately.
The initiative is still firmly in the hands of the bears, and it will not rise in the morning, and it will be even more difficult to rise in the afternoon.
Sure enough, after the opening of the market at 1:30 p.m., the price plummeted from the closing price of 53,320 yuan in the morning, and the price fell to 53,030 yuan in just three minutes.
The price fluctuated slightly in this position, rebounded to fifty or sixty yuan, followed by another wave of rapid decline, and the price had come to 52,900 yuan at 13:44.
This price is lower than the new one-year low of 53,180 yuan set yesterday.
Li Xin, who is good at analyzing the mentality of traders, can almost conclude that this wave of new low declines after 1:30 must be caused by the flight of bulls, and these bulls are the ones that did not run out of the falling limit yesterday. They saw that the price was opening high today, thinking that today's trend would rise sharply, so they have been waiting on the sidelines, hoping to wait for the price to rise before making a profit, or to reduce their losses a little when they go out. However, contrary to expectations, the trend in the morning went lower and lower under the pressure of the bears, and it has come to the vicinity of yesterday's fall limit.
This morning's trend is exactly the same as the trend before 11:30 a.m. yesterday, these bulls who are on the sidelines are worried that they will continue to fall sharply after the afternoon opening as they did yesterday, and they have lost confidence before they flocked out after the opening at 1:30 to avoid being blocked by the fall limit again today.
Maybe it's really like Li Xin guessed, today's trend of getting lower and lower, and even hitting a new low has made the bulls lose the confidence to counterattack, after 1:50, the price has been hovering in the range of 52,900 yuan to 53,100 yuan, and this shock lasted for half an hour.
By 14:20 p.m., perhaps some bears saw that the price hit a new low of 52,900 yuan but did not continue to accelerate the decline, and they lost patience and began to take profits near this low, which made the price rise slightly before the close, and the closing price closed at 53,350 yuan.
Although the price has risen by 170 yuan compared with yesterday, Li Xin, who has carefully studied today's time-sharing chart, is not too worried. In his eyes, today's game between the long and short sides has been divided, and the price will definitely not be able to pull up in the short term. Since the decline has not changed, it is better to hold a position and wait, so as not to miss the final feast.
He decided that yesterday's drop limit was a beacon, indicating that the price must be below 50,000 yuan.
At 2 p.m. that night, copper in London closed at $6,795, down 0.88% from yesterday.
Such a result is good news for Li Xin, as long as the London copper price does not rise, as long as the domestic copper price does not rise, it will form a pressure on the trend of domestic copper prices.
On the morning of September 18, the domestic copper price opened at 53,790 yuan, which was 440 yuan higher than yesterday's closing price of 53,350 yuan.
Li Xin saw this situation and thought: This is obviously another ghost of the bulls, in the trading process yesterday and the day before yesterday, every time the bulls pull up the price on dips, they will encounter strong pressure from the bears, making the price continue to fall. In this case, the bulls can only find a way to open the price at the opening price, and the opening price is significantly higher yesterday and today, that is, the bulls hope to create a situation in the market where the price is about to rise, and reduce their pressure.
Li Xin believes that in the case of negative news around him, copper prices will definitely not rise. Because for the bears, if they want to continue the decline and continue to expand their profits, they will definitely not let such a thing happen.
The bulls did not work hard, and after starting trading at the opening price of 53,790 yuan, the price quickly rose to 53,950 yuan in just a dozen seconds.
But the power of the airdrop is even greater, and only three minutes later, the price was hit to 53,550 yuan. Since then, the price has started a volatile downward pattern.
At 9:25, the price fell to 53,150 yuan, which was comparable to yesterday's closing price, and the bulls launched another wave of counteroffensive in this key position, and after just over 10 minutes, at 9:40, the price was pulled up to 53,420 yuan.
But the efforts of the bulls ended there, and from this position, the price continued to fall.
At 10:02, the price fell below yesterday's closing price and came to the 53,000 yuan mark.
At this very important integer mark, the price fluctuated for another 10 minutes, rising to a maximum of 53,180 yuan, and then this price lasted until the market closed at 10:15 in the morning.
At 10:30, after the trading restarted, the price fell sharply again, and after just two minutes, the price fell to 52,750 yuan.
After this wave began to fall, the bulls simply did not have the strength to organize decent resistance, and the price continued to fall. By 11 a.m., the price had fallen to a low of 52,150 yuan, a full 1,200 yuan lower than yesterday's closing price.
Looking at such a trend, Li Xin couldn't help but high-five and admire: The bears don't give the bulls a way to live at all! If the bulls' resistance in yesterday's trading process was still somewhat strong, today's bulls' resistance is weak, and the trend from the opening of the morning to the present is almost one-sided. Maybe there will be another drop limit today!