Half an hour later.

Xia Yu found that everyone had finished reading it, and almost all of them were thinking about it.

He smiled, breaking the silence.

"Okay, everyone's done with it. ”

"What do you think?"

After Xia Yu finished speaking, his eyes swept back and forth on everyone's faces.

Seeing that no one was silent, Xia Yu directly called the name.

This time, he did not order the most outstanding Liu Ji again, but gave the opportunity to Song Yang.

"Song Yang, you talk about it first. ”

Song Yang was slightly stunned, then nodded, and said after a moment of silence: "Boss, after reading these materials, two words came to my mind. ”

"Huge pits, opportunities!"

"Mexico, Brazil and other five countries, each of these five countries have a year-end debt service ratio of more than five times the international warning line, Argentina is the highest, nearly eight times!"

"The foreign exchange of these countries is basically drying up, and the foreign exchange they will receive from their commercial exports in the next five or six years will be enough to repay the total debt this year. ”

"In August in particular, Mexico had a debt of more than $10 billion due to be repaid. ”

"I can't think of where Mexico can get the money to pay its debts, except that banks in Europe and the United States continue to lend large sums of money to get Mexico to pay its debts. ”

"There is a huge hidden danger of sovereign debt in Latin America and other countries. ”

"These countries have outstanding debts of more than $300 billion, which is equivalent to the annual gross domestic product of Canada, the seventh largest in the world, and if there is a crisis, it will affect all the big banks in Europe and the United States, and the global financial market and capital market will be affected. ”

"If we mobilize funds and lurk in the stock market, foreign exchange market and other markets, we will definitely be able to make a lot of money!"

Xia Yu smiled, but did not comment, but looked at the others and asked, "What about you?"

The crowd looked at each other.

I saw Tang Yong push his glasses and say, "Boss, let me tell me my personal opinion." ”

"I've been studying the U.S. economy and the Fed's policy direction for the past six months. ”

In 1979, Paul Volcker became chairman of the Federal Reserve, and then the second oil crisis exacerbated the problem of economic stagflation in the United States, and Paul Volcker took tough measures to curb the rise in inflation in order to stabilize the U.S. economy, and in June last year, Paul Volcker raised the federal funds rate from an average of 11.2 percent in 1979 to a record high of 19 percent, and the lending rate also raised to 21.5 percent. ”

"Since the beginning of this year, the level of the US federal funds rate has also remained near its all-time high. ”

"The Fed's tight monetary policy has been unprecedented in terms of intensity and duration from 1979 to the present, which has led to massive outflows of money from Latin America. ”

Then there's the problems of Latin America and other countries themselves. ”

"On the one hand, the borrowing interest rate of Latin American and other countries is floating, and the sharp rise in the federal funds rate in the United States has made the economy of Latin American and other countries vulnerable, and the debt has risen sharply, such as Mexico, for example, the annual interest repayment alone accounts for 30% of the annual export value. ”

"After the outbreak of the oil crisis, the global real economy has been greatly affected, and the demand for industrial raw materials has plummeted, which in turn has affected the decline in the international prices of industrial raw materials, which is the most fatal for Latin America and other countries that basically rely on the sale of domestic natural resources to earn foreign exchange. ”

"However, I think there are still great uncertainties in the debt crisis in Latin America and other countries, and now the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been maintained at an all-time high for a year, and Latin American and other countries are currently adapting, as long as they are willing to sell their fixed assets, or use these mines and oil fields to continue to mortgage, they can still turn debt to tide over the difficulties. ”

"Unless the Fed challenges the bottom line again, raises interest rates again, and allows global capital to flow back to the United States. ”

Compared with Song Yang's analysis, Tang Yong's vision is relatively broad and relatively conservative.

However, Xia Yu didn't comment, he also smiled and nodded, and then looked at the others.

"What about you?"

"Don't have scruples, speak your mind!"

"Boss ......"

......

Next, each of them gave their opinions.

From the attitude of the boss Xia Yu, it is conceivable that there are great benefits to be gained, so the main tone has already been set, otherwise they would not have been so solemnly summoned to a meeting to discuss.

But there is a difference between the main tone and how to implement it, whether it is radical or conservative.

Everyone is trying to improve or find fault with other people's points of view, and analyze the problem as comprehensively as possible, so that it can be more secure for the boss to make decisions.

It can be said that everyone's starting point is good.

Therefore, after listening to everyone's opinions, Xia Yu was in a pretty good mood.

Everyone here is not his echo worm, but an elite who knows how to think independently and dare to make suggestions.

Xia Yu couldn't help but sigh again, Liu Ji and others have changed too much compared to a few years ago!

That's a big deal, though!

Xia Yu sat up straight, took a sip of water to clear his throat, and commented with a smile: "Your analysis is very good, everyone's views are well-founded and unique, I am very pleased!"

When everyone heard this, they all smiled knowingly.

Xia Yu suddenly asked: "Let me ask you a question, do you think that in the next few months, will Mexico choose a full-scale default?"

As soon as these words came out, everyone's faces changed.

Total default?

That's too absolute!

You must know that Mexico's current debt is as high as more than $87 billion!

Although they were discussing it just now, based on the data, they only believe that Mexico's debt of more than $10 billion due in August and the remaining debt of more than $30 billion due at the end of the year may be problematic, but it is not without room for activity.

This is fundamentally different from the comprehensive breach of contract that the boss Xia Yu said!

"Boss, Mexico's loans are all from commercial banks in Europe and the United States, even if there is a slight opportunity, these commercial banks will actively respond and will not sit idly by and watch Mexico fully default, right?"

"A short-term default, and a partial default, would be enough to send their stock prices plummeting, and it would be enough to cause huge volatility in Mexico's stock and currency markets. ”

Xue He said suddenly, still a little incredulous.

Xia Yu smiled inexplicably and said, "What if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again?"

"This ......"

Xue He was stunned.

Tang Yong blurted out: "If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again, then the return of international capital to the United States will be an irreversible trend, and if large European and American banks want to continue to lend abroad, it will be difficult for them to pass internally!"

"At that point, it will have the potential to be the last straw that will bend Mexico!"

"Of course, there is also the uncertainty that the information only mentions that Mexico is actively borrowing around the world, but does not mention how much money Mexico is borrowing now!"

After Tang Yong finished speaking, everyone's eyes were once again focused on Xia Yu's body.

PS: It's the weekend, ask for a monthly ticket recommendation!

n.