"Then why do you say that this wave of decline has just released the momentum of the decline in copper prices?"

Li Xin smiled: "There is no harm if there is no comparison, Director Hou." You see that the stock market has fallen to the starting point more than two years ago, but the price of copper, although it has fallen from more than 80,000 yuan to more than 40,000 yuan, a decline of nearly 50%. However, compared with the starting point of copper price rise two or three years ago, there is still a lot of room for downside. More than three years ago, the price of copper rose from more than 20,000 yuan a ton, right?"

"You mean that the price of copper will fall to more than 20,000 yuan a ton, is it impossible?"

"That's not true, but it's very likely to fall below 40,000 yuan. It is said that the stock market is a barometer of the national economy, and the fact that the stock market has fallen to such a low level shows that the demand from all walks of life is very sluggish. With downstream demand so sluggish, how can the product prices of upstream companies such as non-ferrous metals be high?"

Hou Gui said with deep feelings: "Yes, the problem is here. Take our factory as an example, if the price of cables is slightly better, and the price of copper falls like this, the profit of our factory should be considerable. If the price of copper falls faster, our profits will be better, and if the price of cables falls faster, our profits will be minimal. ”

"The situation of your production enterprises is different from the speculation on the futures, according to the demand of production, you should buy a little, as long as you grasp the rhythm well, eat less and eat more. ”

"In the past, I used to take raw materials once a month, but now I have adjusted to three raw materials a month, that is, every 10 days. It's time to buy it today, and now I just can't make up my mind whether I should buy it, if I buy it tomorrow and then the day after tomorrow it's a drop limit, then I'm not going to buy a loss again?"

"Then you adjust the frequency a little faster, buy it every 5 days, the trouble is a little troublesome, but buy a little less every time, if the price continues to fall, don't you be able to avoid some losses?"

"Well, that's the only way to do it. ”

Don't look at Li Xin's persuasion of Hou Gui like this, in fact, he is also very worried about the trend of copper prices tomorrow.

Li Xin was discussing the stock trend with Wang Minghui and the three of them at this time, and after he put down the phone, Wang Minghui asked him: "Is the price of futures copper now a continuous downward limit?"

"yes. ”

"You said your futures position hasn't been closed yet, are you short or long?"

"Short. ”

"Wow, then you didn't just make a little money, you made a lot of money!

Li Xin smiled: "This is kept secret for the time being. ”

"Your secrecy is three hundred taels of silver here, as soon as you say this, I know that the position in your hand must be indispensable, you kid has to treat you." Wang Minghui said.

Li Xin said: "No problem, let's find a place to eat together at noon." ”

"That's it, we talked while eating, we haven't seen each other for a long time. Wang Minghui happily patted Li Xin on the shoulder.

The news of the suspension of copper trading in the futures market also brought great hope to Xue Chenzhi: It seems that not only does he feel that the price of copper is too low, but also that the price of copper is too low.

He happily ran downstairs to Zheng Guorui's office and said to Zheng Guorui: "The futures exchange has suspended the trading of copper today, which is good news, and the above has begun to intervene in the price." ”

Zheng Guorui said: "I have also seen it, but the problem is that trading is only suspended for one day, and it is not certain how the copper price will go tomorrow." ”

"At this price, the exchange suspends trading, and their intention is that Sima Zhao's heart is well known to passers-by, and the price will definitely rebound sharply. ”

Zheng Guorui said lightly: "I hope." ”

Xue Chenzhi reacted a little strangely to Zheng Guorui: "What, don't you think this news is a major benefit?"

"This is certainly good news for many parties, but the problem is that it's hard to say how effective such news will be. ”

"What do you mean?"

Zheng Guorui thought for a while and replied: "Chairman, I think the exchange's intentions must be good, but the problem is that such a move can only be regarded as a measure of equity, and it is just a dead horse as a live horse doctor." ”

"You're too pessimistic. ”

"Chairman, the current situation is not optimistic, the market is so sluggish, the manufacturers are still selling goods regardless of the cost, and the three consecutive falling limits are in such a situation. The exchange took such measures at this time obviously to intervene in prices, but the problem is that at this time and then, such a measure may only be a drop in the bucket and cannot change the general trend. ”

Xue Chenzhi also saw at this time that Zheng Guorui seemed to have thought deeply about this question, although Zheng Guorui's answer made him very uncomfortable, but he was not good at interrupting or scolding Zheng Guorui. He also wanted to hear Zheng Guorui's true thoughts, so he asked, "Tell me what you think? What do you mean by that moment?"

"What I mean by this is that it is now a market economy, which is different from the planned economy in the past. In the era of the planned economy, there was unified purchasing and sales, and if a price was set above, the market had to sell at that price, and if it was lower than that, it would be speculation. But now it is a market economy, and the price is determined by the market. Each manufacturer has its own actual situation, and their production costs are also different. When you don't want to sell, maybe other manufacturers will sell well. This is the fundamental reason why there are still people selling in the market when the price of copper has fallen to this position. In this context, the exchange wants to use the price of a platform to intervene, which is a bit too taken for granted, and the effect will only be a drop in the bucket. And you noticed, the exchanges only said that they were suspending trading, and they weren't saying that they were limiting prices to a certain extent, right? Because they also know that direct price intervention is no longer appropriate now. ”

"You mean the price of copper is going to fall?"

"I don't know for sure, I just don't think the suspension of trading today may not have much effect. ”

Xue Chenzhi said disapprenously: "The total consumption of copper metal in the market is quite stable, and there is a large increase every year. Even if the overall economic situation is relatively sluggish this year, and the market demand will shrink somewhat, the overall framework of demand should still be there. Against this backdrop, and now that the price of copper has fallen by nearly 50 percent, have these market demands disappeared out of thin air? Won't downstream copper-using enterprises use copper this year?"

Zheng Guorui felt a little ridiculous about Xue Chenzhi's approach of only thinking about problems from his own point of view, but he didn't dare to reveal this kind of thought on the surface.

He changed his tone and said: "You are right, the downstream market demand is still there, and the overall market demand cannot change too much." But there is another phenomenon in the market, that is, buying up but not buying down. This kind of mentality of buying up and not buying down, in the process of rising prices, everyone's practice of chasing up will continue to push up the price of products. However, it is also this kind of psychology of buying up and not buying down, in the process of falling prices, when everyone waits for a lower price to make a move, it will make the market price lower and lower. In fact, whether it is in the process of rising or falling, the change in market demand is really not big, and the change in market demand is not enough to push up the price to produce such a big change, and it is the consumer's mentality that really changes the price. Let's just say that in the process of plummeting prices, have those market needs disappeared? In fact, they have not disappeared, but they are just waiting and seeing. If you think about it from their point of view, it's not hard to understand. If they buy early, the cost will remain high, and if they buy later, the cost will have a slight advantage. In addition, a more important point is that copper is basically used as a raw material, and whether the price of raw materials falls or not depends on the price of the product to determine. As you just said, the overall economic situation this year is relatively sluggish, right? If the price of products falls faster than the price of raw materials, then no matter how much copper falls, the products produced by manufacturers after buying them back cannot guarantee better profit margins. I think this is the fundamental reason why the price of copper has fallen so far, but there is still not much buying. ”

Xue Chenzhi rolled his eyes, but he didn't speak, he had a feeling of being stunned in his heart, but after this feeling, it didn't bring him the slightest sense of pleasure. Because after figuring out this truth, he is even less able to see the expectation of rising copper prices. "Isn't there still anyone asking for a quote about the mine?" he asked.

"No, in this case, the copper mine is a hot potato, who will take over at this time?"

The continuous decline in copper prices has made the Southern Group lose the opportunity to turn over, and today's news of the suspension of trading is the last chance for Xue Chenzhi to see the price reversal, if this hope is also disappointed, the following days will be unimaginable.

The only trace of heat in Xue Chenzhi's heart when he entered the door just now was gone, he turned around silently and walked out of Zheng Guorui's office with his head down.

When she went to bed at night, Xia Xiaona put her arm around Li Xin and asked, "What have you been doing all day today?"

Li Xin asked, "What is the feeling of 49 years?"

"It's liberated. ”

Li Xin laughed dumbly when she heard this: "You can really guess blindly, and you are liberated, as for it?"

"Isn't it? On the first day of your resignation, you went out crazy all day, and you didn't even come home for lunch, isn't it that feeling of being free?"