Zhang Shaohui saw that Li Xin began to fool again, and he was angry. Originally, he didn't want to talk to Li Xin anymore, but seeing that Li Xin had so much to say regardless of whether the stock market was up or down, and he said it justifiably, he choked coldly: "Liugong Machinery is on the falling limit, you don't feel it at all?"

Li Xin heard that the meaning of Zhang Shaohui's words was a little wrong at this time, and he couldn't guess what Zhang Shaohui was thinking, but Zhang Shaohui obviously ridiculed himself in this sentence just now. So he said: "No one wants to see the falling limit, but the problem is that no one can predict such intraday fluctuations, since it is a long-term list, short-term fluctuations are inevitable." ”

Zhang Shaohui saw that Li Xin was still quibbling, so he pointed to the chart of the large market index on the computer screen and said: "You said that from 1664 points to yesterday's 2030 points is the first wave of the bull market, but I don't think this is the first wave at all, at most it is just a small rebound in the process of the bear market falling." Although this rally has risen 21.99% from low to high, I think this wave of more than 20% will continue to fall after the rally ends, just like the previous two waves of more than 20%. ”

As soon as he heard that Zhang Shaohui began to analyze the trend of the market, and he looked confident, Li Xin immediately became interested, and he put aside the unfriendly attitude in Zhang Shaohui's words just now and asked: "You said that this is not the first wave of the bull market, but just a small rebound in the bear market, what is your reason?"

Zhang Shaohui pointed his finger at the computer screen and said: "Take the example you just gave as an example, at the beginning of the bear market last year, the first wave fell from 6124 points to 4778 points, and this wave of decline fell sharply below the 60 moving average of 5432 points, right?"

Li Xin looked at the chart of the large market index on the computer screen, then nodded and said, "Yes, that's right." ”

Zhang Shaohui continued: "I don't care what the Elliott Wave theory calculates, anyway, I think that the decline of that wave can fall significantly below the support of the 60 moving average is an important indicator of a bull market turning bearish market." If the broader market index could not even fall below the 60 moving average at that time, I am afraid that there would not be this bear market from the end of last year to today. Are you right?"

Li Xin said: "There is some truth in saying this. ”

Zhang Shaohui's confidence is getting more and more sufficient: "That's right, the reason why the bull market from September last year to the end of November last year continued to rise was because it had been running above the 60 moving average and had never effectively fallen below the 60 moving average." Even a brief break below the support of the 60 EMA immediately returned to above the 60 EMA shortly thereafter. The support of the 60 moving average for the broader market lasted until mid-November last year, and the broad market index entered a bear market precisely because it effectively fell below the support of the 60 moving average in mid-November last year. This is true for bull markets, and it is still true for bear markets. After falling below the support of the 60-day EMA in mid-November last year and entering a bear market, the broader market index broke through the pressure of the 60-day moving average upwards in mid-January this year, but also fell back below the 60-day EMA soon after. Since then, from the end of January this year to today, the broad market index has been running below the 60 moving average, which is the fundamental reason why this wave of bear market has continued until now. In other words, the 60-day moving average is the bull-bear dividing line, and the criterion for entering a technical bull market with a rise of more than 20% from the low to the high is simply not reliable. ”

"How so?" Li Xin asked.

Seeing that Zhang Shaohui and Li Xin were arguing, Wang Minghui and Wang Haoqiang also moved their chairs one after another, sat in front of Li Xin and Zhang Shaohui's computers, and listened carefully to their debate.

Zhang Shaohui said vigorously: "The best example is in front of you, the highest point of today's market index is 2050 points, and the position of the 60-day moving average is 2057 points, the market index fell sharply immediately when it was only one step away from the 60 moving average, which shows that the current market is still not able to break through the pressure of the 60 moving average, and will continue to fall under the pressure of this moving average in the future." If, as you said, now is the time to turn from a bear to a bull, then the market index should have broken through the pressure of the 60-day moving average as it fell sharply below the 60-day moving average in mid-November last year.

Wang Minghui and Wang Haoqiang listened to what Zhang Shaohui said very reasonably, so they turned their eyes to Li Xin and listened to how he responded to this question.

Li Xin said: "The 60 moving average is certainly a very important pressure line, and the broad market index can run on it, of course, it will be much better, but the pressure that cannot break through this moving average today does not mean that it cannot be broken in the future." Just like if the broader market index failed to effectively fall below the support of the 60 moving average in mid-November last year, it will also fall below the 60 moving average sometime in January and February this year, because that is the general trend. Now that the market has just started from the bottom, the probability that the pressure on the market index to break through the 60 moving average will continue to go up in the future is very high, which is also the general trend. ”

Zhang Shaohui has not been in contact with Li Xin for a long time, but he knows from Li Xin's performance in the past week or so that Li Xin can speak well, and it is not easy to convince him. So he smiled coldly: "I don't have as much confidence as you, this round of room to rise from low to high is only more than 300 points, and the first wave of the bear market fell by nearly 1,400 points at the beginning of last year, the two are completely different." To say that such a small increase is the first wave of a bull market is a bit too far-fetched. ”

Li Xin said: "It's all the words of one family, and it's normal for everyone to have their own opinions. As for the fact that the upside of this recent wave 1 is too far from the downside of wave 1 of last year's bear market, I don't think there is a comparison in absolute numbers, but in percentages. The base of last year's bear market decline was 6,124 points, but what is the base of this year's rise? Now the base is only 1,664 points, and under the premise of different bases, it is normal for the same percentage to correspond to different absolute values. ”

Zhang Shaohui listened to Li Xin's words, turned his back with disdain, waved his hand and said, "Just like you said, everyone has their own opinions, and they have different opinions, so it's best not to influence each other." ”

Li Xin only reacted when he heard this, Zhang Shaohui was convinced that his strategy of firmly bullish long-term positions affected his short-term operation ideas, resulting in him not selling yesterday when the stock price of Liugong Machinery was soaring, and today's falling limit made him lose 10% of his profits. So he smiled helplessly: "That's what I said, each person makes an order according to his own ideas, don't be influenced by others." But then again, who can blame you if you are really influenced by others? Aren't your heads and hands on your own body?"

Wang Minghui and Wang Haoqiang heard that Li Xin and Zhang Shaohui were getting more and more angry, and they didn't want to be caught in the middle and be in a dilemma, so they didn't say anything, and quietly moved the chair back to their computer and sat down. There was a sudden silence in the room, in stark contrast to the lively scene of the previous debate.

Because the awkward atmosphere made Li Xin feel like a man's back, he sat quietly for another two or three minutes, then turned off the computer, got up and left the big room.

It was estimated that Li Xin had already gone far away after going out, so Zhang Shaohui turned around and said to Wang Minghui and Wang Haoqiang: "I just listened to his words and couldn't hold shares, I have lost a lot of money in the past two days." Recently, the stock price has fluctuated so sharply, and the loss of holding shares is too great, so I have to move. Who can say for sure when the bull market will come? But there is a price difference of nearly 10% between the high and low stock prices in one or two trading days like now, and if you don't move your position, your head will be kicked by a donkey. ”

Wang Haoqiang also said: "The profit between the high and low is too considerable, and it would be too cool if it could be caught." ”

Wang Minghui said worriedly: "The problem is that it is really difficult to judge the ups and downs in the short term, and if it is not done well, not only does it not dilute the cost, but it is also very uncomfortable to increase the cost." ”

Zhang Shaohui said: "If nothing else, let's just say that Liugong Machinery closed on the big black line on the falling limit today, which almost swallowed up the rise of the two big white lines on the 17th and 14th. If there is no black candle today, if the upward trend on the right side of the bottom of the arc continues, it is possible to continue to rise. However, as soon as this long black candlestick appeared today, the uptrend on the right side was completely destroyed. Have you ever seen such a big gap on the right side of a bowl still be used? Now the market index has been suppressed by the 60-day moving average and has fallen sharply, and the price of Liugong Machinery is now 10.98 yuan is still eight zhang away from the 60-day moving average of 13.49 yuan, how can it continue to rise? This is obviously a situation that is about to fall again and break through the low point of 7.66 yuan set on November 7 to continue to decline, just like Wang Minghui, the two examples you said that day, will continue to fall after the rebound. ”

"Then you mean you're going to come out tomorrow to wait and see?" Wang Minghui asked hesitantly. Wang Minghui is now in a dilemma, on the one hand, he believes that the long-term upward trend that Li Xin said still exists, on the other hand, he also thinks that what Zhang Shaohui said is very reasonable, the market can not even break through the 60 moving average, and the room for decline in the short term will definitely not be small. In the face of the risk of a pullback, it is better to move his position with his holdings, but he is really not sure that he can grasp these profits that fluctuate in the short term.