"The end of the first half, that is to say, the entire time range of investment must be controlled in the first half of this industry?" Xie Changgeng nodded, feeling that Li Feng's summary was very vivid and convincing, "According to what you said, if you enter the second half, capital has indeed not been able to catch up with the growth rate of Internet companies, maybe one million today can get 10% of the equity, and tomorrow it will only get 1%, doesn't that mean?"

"Yes, this locks the vision of Internet investment in the first half, that is, before the sudden outbreak of the lotus pond effect, otherwise it will be difficult to maximize the return on investment. Li Feng said, "So the next focus of our judgment is how to determine the development cycle of an industry and the current period." ”

Li Feng's own investment in the hybrid game studio actually follows this investment philosophy, that is, to intervene when the future is uncertain, and exchange the lowest capital for the highest equity. Such an approach is a recipe for the fire, so early judgment and analysis are very important.

If the stand-alone version of Dai Yunfei's "Mixed Yuan Swordsman" is successfully released, the studio has a certain amount of cash flow, firstly, the thirst for funds is not so strong, and secondly, it is impossible to buy their controlling stake.

In 2002, the total number of Internet users in the country was about 30 million, and the Internet was still a niche technology, so in many cases, people's predictions of the growth of the Internet field were very conservative.

They can't imagine that just over a decade later, the total number of netizens in the entire China will reach 700 million, that is to say, the total number of netizens has grown more than 20 times in just over ten years, reaching the level of terror that one in every two people is a netizen.

It is precisely because they cannot see the high growth of the Internet in the future, so they are often very conservative in the logic of investment in the Internet field, and it may take more than five or six years for the emergence of radical investment methods.

Therefore, Li Feng's theory of "the end of the first half" was rarely understood by many people in 2002, and it even made people feel alarmist.

Only a top professor like Xie Changgeng can figure out why capital intervened in the first half, because the sudden outbreak in the second half could not be foreseen by anyone, including Li Feng.

It is for this reason that the future Internet investment model must be radical, that is, even if this is a very bastard project, as long as it sees a certain growth, it must be invested quickly, because no one can guarantee that the project will suddenly explode one day.

Li Feng and Xie Changgeng carefully sorted out the logic, especially the redefinition of the future Internet entrepreneurship model, which made the whole article extremely logical and predictable at the beginning stage.

"You kid is terrible, I won't tell you what will happen at the forefront of the Internet field, in fact, there is a lot of controversy in the academic world, and it is difficult for us to speculate. It can even be said that the Internet itself is very strange, it is a new world, and many of the theories we have studied before are not applicable in this world. Xie Changgeng said, "In this first part, we use the introduction of 'lotus pond effect' to lead to insights into the development model of the Internet, and then put forward a new investment concept of 'the end of the first half'." ”

After Li Feng's combing, coupled with Xie Changgeng's theoretical level, the two quickly sorted out the first part, and the planning department was about 2,500 words.

"Professor Xie, this first part is just a pre-dinner aperitif, and the real highlight is the second part. Li Feng opened the framework document of the second part.

Xie Changgeng looked at the subtitle of the second part, "The blind man touches the elephant and the little tadpole looks for his mother", which made Xie Changgeng a little confused.

"Li Feng, you can explain. Xie Changgeng said.

"The second part is the highlight of the whole article, and my plan is 5,000 words long, and the main focus of the discussion is how to invest in the Internet. My idea is to explain the investment logic from the individual and global levels, that is, the 'blind man touching the elephant' at the individual level, and the global 'tadpole looking for mother'. Li Feng said.

In this second part, Li Feng intends to discuss in a combination of macro and micro ways, in which the blind man touching the elephant is the micro model, and the tadpole looking for the mother is the macro model of investment logic.

"This macro 'tadpole looking for mother' model, in fact, I have already talked about it on the first day of class, this is similar to the modern insurance system, as long as you cast a wide net, you can always harvest a frog son. Li Feng said, "This is also in line with the characteristics of biology, such as frogs laying eggs, not one at a time, but dozens of hundreds." The same is true for Internet investment, investing in dozens or even hundreds of projects at the same time, and there are always a few tadpoles that can grow into frogs. ”

Internet investment is completely different from traditional investment, and Internet investment follows the "logic of trial and error", that is, you know that there is a problem, but you also have to try and make mistakes. Therefore, it is a small step, diversify investment, and share risks equally.

This is not the case with traditional investment, which pursues a success rate, so it is often impossible to invest in dozens or hundreds of projects, but only concentrate on a few major projects.

"According to your logic, if investors still spend their energy on feasibility analysis, or even market research, and endlessly argue about whether the project is worth investing in, they have already failed, right?" Xie Changgeng asked.

"Yes, because they don't have the time at all, the lotus pond effect will quickly disrupt their plans, and if they want to pursue stability, they shouldn't get involved in the Internet field and go into real estate. Li Feng said sharply.

The Internet field itself is a field of constant change, and the speed of change and growth in this field far exceeds that of any other field, so any experience in other fields is not applicable in the Internet field, even the senior leaders in the Internet field, they are constantly making mistakes and correcting mistakes.

"Now I understand what it means for a blind man to touch an elephant. Xie Changgeng said, "Whether the project is good or bad, we don't actually know, at most it's just touching an elephant's trunk, right?"

Li Feng nodded: "The reason why Internet investment is difficult is that we don't know what will suddenly become popular, that is to say, as long as you touch an elephant's trunk, you should act immediately, and when you know exactly that this is an elephant, will you still have a chance?