"You've been talking so much around and around, isn't he still fooling me?"

"I'm not fooling you, I think this young man is a little mature. Xia Xiaona's father said thoughtfully.

Xia Xiaona's mother was even more unhappy when she heard this: "Who are you, Li Xin prevaricated me with words, and you still speak for him?"

Xia Xiaona's father asked, "Surely Nana didn't tell you to say it, right?"

"It's because Nana doesn't have these eyes that I have to say these words for her!"

"Look, I know it. It's not appropriate for us to meddle in these things, and besides, isn't it even more frightening for Nana to worry about things she doesn't understand?"

"As long as Nana understands Li Xin's situation, even if Nana can't be the master, isn't there still us? ”

"That's even worse! It's a business, not a family dinner. You and I don't understand that, wouldn't it be a mess for others to get involved?

"We're just helping them come up with ideas to check the gates, how can it be so difficult? It's also for Nana's sake. ”

Xia Xiaona's father sighed: "Alas, your starting point is for Nana's sake, but in fact, you did this to make it difficult for Nana." The reason why I just said that this young man Li Xin is a little mature is that he did not reject your opinion in person. If it were me, I wouldn't have agreed. This reason is very simple, we don't understand the futures business, and mixing it to help them come up with ideas will only make the probability of success lower and the probability of loss greater. ”

Xia Xiaona's mother asked very strangely: "What is your reasoning? More people are powerful, isn't it better to have a few more ideas, how can the more people, the lower the probability of success?"

Xia Xiaona's father patiently explained to his wife: "Then I will carefully explain to you what the truth here is." There is a good saying that if 10 people in the investment market make investments, only one or two people will make money in the long run, and the other eight or nine people will lose money. That is to say, if a person invests in the market, if he can not lose or make money, then he is considered an upper-middle level person, which is right?"

"Hmm. ”

"That means that an upper-middle-level investor has a 50% chance of success, right?"

"Yes. ”

"Li Xin, a young man, has done well in the investment market in recent years, he has made money, which means that the probability of his success is higher than this 50%, let's temporarily count the probability of his success is 80%. ”

"So what?" said Xia Xiaona, her mother didn't understand what her husband was trying to mean by saying this.

"Don't be in a hurry to listen, listen to me tell you slowly. Do you think Nana's investment level can be considered to be in the middle and upper class, which means that Nana's success rate in making investment judgments is 50%?"

Xia Xiaona's mother didn't know how to answer this question for a while.

Xia Xiaona's father understood what she was thinking when he saw his wife's expression, so he said, "Nana's success rate should be less than 50%, right? Well, when Li Xin made an investment judgment alone, his success rate was 80%, Nana helped him come up with ideas, what is the probability of success when the opinions of the two people are combined? It is 80% × 50%, and it immediately drops to only 40%, only half of the original. You said that let Nana help Li Xin check and help Li Xin come up with ideas, so that Li Xin can be prevented from losing money and let him make more money. This idea is good, but it is not valid in theory. Nana added in to help Li Xin make trading judgments, but the success rate dropped to half of the original. ”

Xia Xiaona's mother is not a housewife, she is also an educated person, but she has never thought deeply about such a simple question. She has always believed that there is great power in numbers, and the ideas of many people gathered together must be more reliable than one person's ideas, and the success rate is greater.

But now that her husband has explained this truth thoroughly, she is surprised: "No, is that really the case?"

Of course, this is the most basic calculation method and the most basic truth in mathematics. This still only considers the probability of success of the ideas of Nana and Li Xin, and if you add the opinions of you and me, the result will be even worse. The investment level of you and me is similar to Nana's, and it would be nice to have a 50% chance of success, do you admit that?"

"Hmm. Xia Xiaona's mother nodded.

"Then I'll calculate for you what is the probability of success for the opinions of the four of us to be gathered together, and the result is 80%× 50%× 50%×50%, and finally equal to 10%, that is to say, the three people in our family all went to help Li Xin make investment decisions, and the final success rate was only 1/8 of the success rate of Li Xin's own decision-making. ”

Xia Xiaona's mother was taken aback and muttered, "Is that how the probability is calculated?"

Xia Xiaona's father said confidently: "Will this be fake? I know the truth here best when I do engineering design." ”

Xia Xiaona, her mother was silent.

Xia Xiaona's father saw that his wife stopped talking, so he went on to explain: "So I said that it's not a good thing for us to get involved, and it's just from a technical point of view." From the perspective of human relations, others will also be very disgusted by our behavior. If you put yourself in Nana's shoes, if Nana is doing her own business, Li Xin is her boyfriend, and she doesn't understand the corresponding business, but she wants to get involved and come up with ideas together, what will Nana and we think in our hearts? If we agree to him getting involved, we are worried that he doesn't understand the business and our business will suffer losses. If we don't agree with him getting involved, people will think that we are guarding against him, which will affect the relationship between Li Xin and Nana. Now we insist on getting involved in Li Xin's business, and Li Xin must know that doing more harm than good will be. But he promised you in front of you, which is one of the signs of his maturity. What I'm worried about now is whether Li Xin will think that these ideas were Nana's idea, and if the two of them make an awkward fuss about this matter, it will be troublesome! In this way, the final result will not only not help Nana, nor will it help Li Xin, but also stiffen the relationship between the two of them, which means that this will do all kinds of harm but no benefit. Do you know by now why I told you not to meddle in this matter again and again last night?"

Xia Xiaona's mother realized the seriousness of the problem when she heard this: "Then what should I do?"

Xia Xiaona's father said: "So far, we can only wait and see, you have already said those words, can you still take it back?" Wait for Nana to come back and ask her, see how Li Xin and the others discussed this matter, I hope Nana can handle this matter well." ”

After Li Xin's car drove out of the community, for a few minutes, Li Xin and Xia Xiaona did not speak.

After a while, Xia Xiaona couldn't help but break the deadlock: "Don't take the words my mother said just now, I don't know if she will say this." ”

Li Xin smiled and said, "It's okay, it's normal for your parents to ask about this, and they are also thinking about you." ”

Xia Xiaona said: "It seems that you still don't believe that I don't know about it. ”

Li Xin said: "This is not important. ”

Xia Xiaona said: "Of course this is important, knowing and not knowing are completely different things. If I knew my mom was going to say these things and not stop her, it meant that my mom and I thought the same thing, right?"

Li Xin said: "It's normal for you to think the same as your mother." ”

"But the problem is that my mom and I really don't think the same!"

"Really?" asked Li Xin.

"Of course it's true, I'm right to worry about you, but I never wanted to interfere with your affairs, because I know I don't understand. And if I really want to ask you these things, why don't I ask them myself, but let my mom come forward and ask them? Do you think that's my way of doing things?"

Li Xin listened to Xia Xiaona's words, thought about it carefully, and felt that judging from Xia Xiaona's behavior, she should be telling the truth.

Li Xin knew that this matter was very sensitive, and based on his past experience, he knew that if this matter was not handled well, it would affect the relationship between the two.

So he said to Xia Xiaona: "I know that you are worried about me, and you should also know that I am afraid of you, so I don't say these things to you too much, right?"

"Hmm. ”

"Let me tell you this, I haven't said a word to anyone else, including my parents, for all these investment deals I've done. Because I know that these things are very risky, and people who know will bear a lot of psychological pressure, and the closer people are to me, the greater the pressure they will bear. You're the first person to know the details of my investment dealings, but as you can see, you've only been worried about this for a week or two, and if you stick to it for a long time, you're going to be unbearable, right? That's why I'm reluctant to tell you about these things and worry about you. ”

In the past, it was others who chased and asked Li Xin about these situations, so he was very disgusted, and felt that the other party's attention was not on himself, but on his own financial situation.

But now Xia Xiaona is different, Li Xin knows that Xia Xiaona is really worried about herself, and her heart is really in herself, which makes Li Xin very moved.

He said to Xia Xiaona: "As long as you want to ask, I will tell you whatever you ask." But from my point of view, in order not to make you scared anymore, I won't take the initiative to tell you anything like this, okay?"

"Well, as long as you're good, I'm happy!"

Li Xin took out his right hand and shook Xia Xiaona's white hand: "Don't worry, we will all be fine!"