Chapter 523: Here's the Reason

Obviously, this wave of rally, which began on September 19, lasted only two days on September 22 and September 23, and today on September 23, this candlestick has clearly given a signal of the end of the rally. If the rally had continued, there would have been no such a deep pullback.

The question now is, will a new wave of declines already begin to emerge?

Li Xin, who has just closed the short order in his hand for three trading days, has not turned a corner now, if a new decline is about to start, should he continue to short in this place?

But the problem is that there is not much time left for him to think about, just like he said to Xia Xiaona in the morning, before the National Day, there are only two trading days left tomorrow Thursday and Friday the day after tomorrow, and then it will be a long holiday.

It may be precisely for this reason that today's futures copper has been hovering at a low level since the gap opened low, and it can't go down or go up. In this position, both long and short sides are not only afraid of price, but also afraid of time.

This problem is a bit difficult to solve, once the position is closed, the re-entry needs to re-plan all aspects of the information. Li Xin is now beginning to ponder again in his heart: how will this market go tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, and whether he wants to enter the market?

Li Xin, who was thinking for a long time, suddenly felt that the copper price had risen and fallen rapidly for four consecutive days, and this trend seemed very abnormal, what was the reason for this? He still didn't figure it out: The closing price on September 22 was 54,320 yuan, which just broke through the 10-day moving average of 54,302 yuan. If the copper price on Tuesday, September 23, continues to rise after opening at a gap of 54,880 yuan, and can gradually approach the pressure position of the 20-day moving average of 56,075 yuan, then this wave of rally has been basically established.

But the problem is that on September 23, the copper price not only did not rise but fell after the gap opened, and the closing price of the day was 54,070 yuan, which fell back to the pressure of the 10-day moving average.

If you can barely see this black candle on September 23 as a pullback after the sharp rise on September 22, then this small white candle on Wednesday, September 24 not only continued to fall by 580 yuan compared to the previous trading day, but also immediately suppressed below the 5-day moving average like the closing price on May 19.

Because he was busy with getting married, and because he was busy closing the original 4,000 short orders, he barely paid much attention to the trend of the stock market for nearly half a month, but now he suddenly found that last Friday, that is, on September 19, when he closed the 4,000 short orders, the stock market index rose by 179 points that day, an increase of 9.45%.

Such a large rise in the stock market index is very rare in a bear market that has lasted for more than half a year.

Then on September 22, the stock market index rose again by 161 points, or 7.77%.

On September 23, the stock market index fell by 33 points, or 1.56%.

On Wednesday, September 24, the trend of the stock market index was even more intriguing: the stock market index opened sharply at the beginning of the day, and the opening index of the day was 2133 points, a sharp decline of 68 points, or 3.1%, from the closing index of 2201 points on September 23.

Coincidentally, after the Shanghai Composite Index opened sharply on this day, the trend of the day-long time-sharing chart also fluctuated back and forth at a low level, and it was not until 2:30 p.m. that it gradually rose from a low level to close at the highest point of 2216 points on the day, a slight increase of 0.69% from the previous trading day.

Seeing this, Li Xin suddenly realized that the rapid rise and fall of copper prices in the past 4 days was affected by the stock market.

Especially today, the copper price chart is almost like a shadow of the stock market index tick chart.

After suddenly understanding the fundamental reasons behind the rapid rise and fall of copper prices in the past two days, Li Xin immediately realized that in order to judge whether copper prices will rise or fall in the future, we must first understand the probability that the stock market index will rise or fall in the future.

So he quickly found out several of the most important stock market indices at home and abroad and compared them one by one.

From last Friday to now, the domestic stock market seems to have seen a wave of low-level rebound, but whether such a rebound will continue, no one can say.

But when he saw the stock market index in the peripheral market, his heart lit up.

On September 1, the Dow's 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 40-day and 60-day moving averages rebounded after a wave of declines, and these moving averages were in a state of bonding during that time. However, on September 23, these moving averages have gradually begun to diverge downward, forming a very obvious bearish arrangement.

Such a trend clearly indicates that the Dow will continue to fall.

It is undeniable that the Dow Jones has the greatest impact on the world's financial markets and capital markets, and if the Dow Jones falls in the future, then the world's major stock markets are unlikely to rise.

Now the copper price has followed the rise of the index of the domestic stock market in the past two days, but the copper price has taken the lead in falling when the domestic stock market has not fallen. If the index of the domestic stock market continues to fall in the future, the copper price will definitely not be able to hold on, and it will continue to fall.

At this time, the faint thought in Li Xin's heart popped up again.

Originally, he thought that the 4,000 hands of short orders in his hand had completely dissipated after closing the position, but now that the copper price seems to have continued to fall, he originally thought that the copper price would fall below 50,000 yuan.

It turned out that this thought had been lurking in his heart, and he had never been far away, but he didn't realize it.

At the close of trading on September 22, the copper price rose sharply by 1,860 yuan, which made Xue Chenzhi ecstatic.

Immediately after 9 o'clock in the morning on September 23, the copper price opened with a gap of 560 yuan, which made Xue Chenzhi firmly believe that the situation of copper prices reversing from the bottom has been determined.

Ambitious, he picked up the golden pack of heavy nine cigarettes from the table, took out one and put it in his mouth, lit it, took a deep breath, and then quietly smoked while waiting to see the trend of copper prices. In his mind, today's trend will definitely continue to climb after the big gap like yesterday.

He wants to enjoy a mellow cigarette while feeling the pleasure of rising copper prices.

It's not that there are no more high-end cigarettes than Dazhongjiu on the market, but Xue Chenzhi has been preferring this brand for many years.

In addition to the very good quality of this brand's cigarettes, but also because the cigarette packaging design of this brand is very unique, the overall color is golden yellow, which is not only similar to the color of the metal copper manufactured by Xue Chenzhi Smelter, but also similar to the color of gold, revealing a sense of wealth and luxury from the inside out.

Xue Chenzhi, who has been tormented by the fall in copper prices, wants to experience the feeling of raising his eyebrows and puffing up brought by the rise in copper prices today.

If it weren't for the fact that it was office hours and the location was in the office, drinking would have seemed a little unsightly. Otherwise, in addition to cigarettes, Xue Chenzhi wanted to pour a glass of wine to help the fun.

It's a pity that the trend of copper prices is not in line with Xue Chenzhi's mood at all. The opening price of 54,880 yuan calculated by the 9:59 call auction rose sharply by 560 yuan compared with the previous trading day, but after the official opening at 9:00, the price instantly fell to 54,580 yuan.

That is to say, after the opening of the market, today's candlestick chart is a black candlestick.

And judging from the time-sharing chart, by 9:11, the price has fallen to 54,480 yuan, and the physical part of the yin line continues to expand.

Although at 10:00 a.m., there was a sudden wave of rapid rise on the time-sharing chart, rising to a high of 54,980 yuan, making the K-line, which had been a negative candle in the morning, become a positive candle in a short period of time.

But this trend did not last long, after 10:00 the price gradually began to fall, just 10 minutes later, the candlestick on the computer screen turned into a black candle again, that is to say, the price now fell below the opening price.

This trend made Xue Chenzhi's mood more and more irritable, he kept smoking, and when he first entered the office in the morning, the empty ashtray had now been piled up with seven or eight cigarette butts.

"Why don't you continue to rise with yesterday's momentum?" Xue Chenzhi watched the price go lower and lower, and he was very anxious, but he couldn't do it at all. If he could exert his strength, he would like to use his hand to pull the parallel line that is constantly consolidating and going lower and lower.

It is said that the trend of the market does not depend on anyone's will.

Xue Chenzhi, as the director of the famous Southern Group smelter and now the acting chairman of the entire group, his views and expectations on copper prices are actually very representative. But despite this, the trend of copper prices today did not give him face at all, and by the end of the day, the copper price fell to 54,070 yuan, down 250 yuan from the previous trading day.

In this whole day, before the futures market closed at 3:00 p.m., Xue Chenzhi did not step out of his office at all, and even asked his secretary Yu Hong to call him from the canteen for lunch.

If the trend of copper prices on September 23 surprised Xue Chenzhi, then the trend of copper prices on September 24 made Xue Chenzhi a little disappointed.