Chapter 567: Up or Down (2)
Regardless of whether the copper price in London will fall or not, anyway, the copper price in the domestic futures market today must be on the falling limit, Li Xin thought to herself.
Before the National Day, copper prices also had a large intraday decline, but the price limit and the limit limit are very rare.
But in the month since October 6, falling limits are almost commonplace. If there is no downward limit in this kind of plunge like today's opening, it will be a little abnormal.
Just when Li Xin racked his brains, the market once again showed its kind of characteristics that it can't do without it, only you can't think of it.
After the price fell to a low of 30,550 yuan, it was pulled up again in an instant, just like it plummeted from 31,550 yuan at 10:11.
At 10:41, the price quickly rebounded to 31,150 yuan, up 600 yuan in ten minutes.
When the price fell to 30,550 yuan just now, the decline was 3.93%, which was only 0.07% away from the 4% drop limit.
But now it only took 10 minutes to rise by 600 yuan, and the decline quickly narrowed from close to the fall limit to 2.04%.
This kind of sudden wave of buying orders to pull the price up when the price is hit near the down limit has also been very rare in the past 20 days or so.
When the price came to the line of 31,150 yuan, the upper selling order appeared again.
The long and short sides fought fiercely in this place, so that the price fluctuated back and forth for 5 minutes, during which the high point of price fluctuations did not continue to break through 31,150 yuan, and the lowest low point only fell to 31,000 yuan.
Li Xin thought that according to the wave of more violent declines during the period from the opening of the market at 9:00 in the morning to 10:31, after the price rebounded to this position, it was likely to continue to suppress the price by the sell and close orders of the bulls.
However, the time point of 10:31 is like a watershed, before which the bears have an absolute advantage, and the price is falling lower than the other.
However, after the price of 10:31 was pulled up from 30,550 yuan, it seemed that the bulls had an absolute advantage.
After the price fluctuated and tangled for 5 minutes during the period of 31,150 yuan to 31,000 yuan, the price started from 10:46 to 31,000 yuan.
At 10:53, the price rose by another 510 yuan to 31,510 yuan.
At this time, the price rose by 960 yuan compared with the lowest price 20 minutes ago, and the decline narrowed to 0.91%.
At this time, 31,510 yuan and 10:11, the starting point of the wave of rapid decline, 31,550 yuan, are almost on the same level, from the time-sharing chart, this is the first previous high of this wave of rise that began at 10:31.
From a technical analysis point of view, there is pressure near the previous highs and support near the previous lows, which is a very simple and effective lesson. In other words, when the price rebounds quickly to this line, it is a high probability event to encounter pressure near the previous high and fall.
Li Xin, who pays great attention to fundamental and technical analysis in investment transactions, knows that it is difficult for the price to continue to rise at this position. At this important pressure juncture, even if the price does not continue the downward pattern before 10:31, it will fluctuate at this line.
Sure enough, the pressure at the 31,550 yuan mark was indeed very obvious, and the price started a 5-minute back and forth shock after rising to 31,510 yuan. At 10:58, the lowest price was 31,370 yuan.
However, this kind of shock consolidation did not last, and the price did not start to fall from this pressure position as Li Xin judged, nor did it continue to struggle in this range, but was immediately pushed up by the surging buying.
At 11:02 after 4 minutes, the price rose from 31,370 yuan to 31,920 yuan.
At this time, the price has not only left the falling limit far behind, but also increased by 120 yuan from yesterday's closing price of 31,800 yuan, an increase of 0.38%.
"Damn, what are you doing here?" Li Xin exclaimed.
In the wave of rapid decline that lasted for an hour and a half after the opening of the market at 9:00, Li Xin could roughly judge that most of the surging sell orders were stop-loss orders that had been suppressed for a long time.
But after 10:31, where did the endless stream of buying orders come from in this surge? Is it a short closing order? Or is it a long opening order?
How can a bull open a position on dips like this? Don't you need money to buy and open a position? If you open a position at the highest price like this, you are not afraid of breaking into the bull trap!
Just as Li Xin thinks that the sell orders that hit the price lower and lower before 10:31 are unlikely to be short opening orders, he also does not believe that the buying orders that surging out after 10:31 and pushing the price higher and higher will be long opening orders.
Then there is only one other possibility, and the vast majority of these buy orders after 10:31 will only be short orders.
If this is the case, then these bears are also a little panicked. Because they can wait patiently for five or six minutes, the long stop loss order will immediately hit the price on the down limit.
As soon as the limit appears, the bulls, who are already frightened birds, will throw out more stop-loss orders. At that time, there will be a recurrence of the situation of tens of thousands of sell orders piled up on the sell orders a few days ago to seal the fall limit.
At this time, wouldn't it be better for the bears to close their positions leisurely on the down limit?
But now there are some impetuous bears who can't wait for the price to come to the falling limit and make a move in advance, so that the price is pulled up when it is only one step away from the falling limit.
As the saying goes, if you can't bear it, you will make a big plan.
Once this situation occurs, it is completely different from the psychological impact on both the long and short sides when there is a falling limit.
The appearance of the fall limit will make the longs who are hedged continue to throw more sell stop orders, which has a huge advantage in terms of price and psychology to close short positions.
But now the price is only one step away from the fall limit, pulled up like a dry onion, this trend is a bad news for the bears who are waiting for a lower price, because it is likely to indicate that the price can no longer fall, especially yesterday afternoon, the rise in copper prices is pulled up from the fall limit.
A day later, the price is again sharply pulled up near the falling limit, which will collapse the confidence of the bears. It's not hard to explain why the buying wave after 10:31 is stronger than the wave, and they are all chasing the highest price. This can only be explained by the fact that the bears are worried that once the market reverses, there will be a continuous limit, and they will not be able to get out of the market like the bulls not long ago and will flee in flocks.
Li Xin looked back and put himself in his shoes, didn't he just watch the price being pulled up from the falling limit yesterday and couldn't hold it back, and closed the 4,000 short orders?
It seems that the camp of the bears has really begun to loosen, so that the bargain buying will only increase.
Sure enough, the price remained strong after rising to the line of 31,920 yuan. After a few minutes of pullback, from 11:04, the price continued to rush up from the 31,770 yuan line again. By 11:06, the price had risen to 32,260 yuan.
This price has increased by 340 yuan compared with 31,920 yuan a few minutes ago. Compared to yesterday's close, there is already an increase of 1.45%.
From 10:31 to 11:06 now, the price of copper has risen from 30,550 yuan to 32,260 yuan, an increase of 1,710 yuan, if 30,550 yuan is used as the starting point for calculation, the increase is 5.59%, which has far exceeded the 4% increase in the price limit.
Perhaps such a huge increase in the price to continue to rise the strength of the weakening, the price rose to 32,260 yuan after the beginning of a deep pullback, at 11:13 in the morning, the price back to 31,820 yuan.
However, the pullback only ended here, starting at 11:14, and the price continued to rise from 31,820 yuan.
Although the increase in the next 10 minutes was somewhat slower than the previous increase, the price still rose to 32,500 yuan at the close of trading at 11:30 a.m. This price is 700 yuan higher than yesterday's closing price of 31,800 yuan, an increase of 2.20%.
After the market opened at 9 a.m., the price fell from 32,900 yuan to a low of 30,550 yuan in an hour and a half.
In an hour from 10:31 to 11:30, the price rose from 30,550 yuan to 32,500 yuan.
As fast as it falls, it rises as fast as it rises, which is a very typical V-shaped reversal.
During the two and a half hours of trading this morning, Li Xin looked away twice from the up-limit to the down-limit, he was dazzled by this rollercoaster-like market, and he no longer dared to rashly make any judgment on today's trend.
Fortunately, there is no position in his hand, and the trend of skyrocketing and plummeting will not cause him any loss, otherwise, today's trend is really enough for him.
Looking at the time-sharing chart like a deep valley in front of him, Li Xin couldn't help but think in his heart: How should those bulls who fled after the opening of the morning feel at this time?
Especially during the period of 10:11~10:31 a.m., the longs who closed their positions and left the market with stop-loss during the rapid collapse of copper prices were almost closed at today's lowest price. At that time, the selling price was almost more than 1,000 yuan per ton lower than the price of 32,260 yuan at the close of 11:30.